Originally Posted by
hedoman
I doubt any cruise line is looking to go out with more than 50% occupancy rate for anything sailing in 2020. This, combined with future cruise credits will keep prices from diving. Expectations will be kept low for the next 12 months and they have already adjusted staffing requirements.
Cruise lines have been dealing with infectious diseases for many years, and actually they have been quite good at controlling previous illness.
However, Covid-19 has changed all the rules of the game. Whereas previously a sick passenger could be isolated to their room for 1-2 days for expected recovery, and the ship scrubbed down to prevent viral transmission by surface or food contact, we now have an illness that is lethal to 1-10% of those it infects (especially true in the crowds that cruise), and requires hospitalization in many more. The disease is so contagious that countries will not allow a ship to offload a sick passenger in their port (and will even ban the ship from docking!).
It's not the cruise line that will control cruising, it is the ports and countries that will allow entry that will control the industry. It is not the number of passengers you can put on board, but whether you can prove to health officials that your ship is virus free.
You can wash and clean and test till the cows come home, but until there is 1) effective therapy and/or 2) vaccines, the cruise industry may be limited to 3 day trips to nowhere as their only offerings.
