andrewr1985

Everyone was mis-sold on the benefits of vaccination, vaccination won't prevent infection or transmission but will help prevent serious illness and/or hospitalisation. We are still at the early stage of this pandemic, not helped by the terrible communication and planning most national governments had in place to deal with this kind of situation. Spanish flu took 2 years to settle, and that was without everyone jetting all over the world, and the virus that caused it is still vaccinated against in the general annual flu shot.

There isn't an exit strategy, because no one has ever planned for an event like this.

Sigwx

And on top of that at no point has success (or what success would look like) ever been clearly defined.

so much for a DODAR.

londonba2014

Am totally with you on this, I absolutely sympathise for those caught up with the change - but am supportive of it. Africa was always going to be a bit more a risk region on going back to the red list (equally the same with India which I would view to be high risk) - in part due to low rates of vaccination and botched figures (SA..). I don't think it was unexpected that this winter would see some restrictions reimposed, but I'd be surprised to see an approach like last year with no travel at all. If we can still continue to travel to countries with high vaccination rates, that have no new variants over the coming months; whilst also maintaining a pretty normal life back at home - then I'm fully supportive.

This country hasn't exactly handled things well so far, but compared to our European neighbours we're in a good place - all without the need to wear masks in the street and be able to have a pint inside - something I'd be keen to keep that way. What does really frustrate me is the number of crew I see on social media kicking off about vaccination, passports and potential travel changes, but they fail to see the bigger picture - in that whilst some destinations may sadly be off limits - things are likely to be in a much better place thanks to these measures being reimposed temporarily.. it's just unfortunate that some folk within the travel industry don't realise their job depends on these being in place; avoiding us being stuck in our homes over the winter months.. and being in the air.

fransknorge

This is a year that scientist warn to be wary of the transmission in the south of the African continent. There is a high proportion of the population infected by HIV, meaning a virus can infect such a person for a long time (several months), with a large amount of replication. Probabilties and evolution being what they are, this means a much higher chance of several viable mutations happening within one body. This is how several previous variants are believed to appear and there are already strong suspicion this is the same for this one too.
Virologist proposed that vaccination were equally shared with those countries and licenses lifted in order to maximize vaccination in this part of the world. This would have led to decrease in tranmssion, which would have led to decrease in random mutations, which led to a decrease of some of them being viable (because for the one saying "virus mutates": when was the last time you heard about a mutation of the plague, which is an endemic virus ?).They were not listen and rich countries acted against that, lobbied by drug companies. This was predicted, there are text from February 2021 describing that exact situation we are in now. Now we need to wait for the results of the research by the ZA team (several weeks) and refine our knowledge. Hopefully it turns out to be "nothing". But if it is something, the West reap what they sow.

KARFA

We are getting a little O/T here.

But yes you are quite right, is it right we are giving out boosters in Europe and the US or vaccinating under 18s when many people haven't even had their first jab. Perhaps the anti-vaxxers have a point

bisonrav

This is really getting Omni now, but Africa has virtually no vaccine manufacturing infrastructure. You don't just hand over a recipe and someone cooks it up, you need enormous amounts of expertise and kit which simply don't exist in place, and then you need to validate your processes. Serum Inst is one of the world's biggest and best vaccine manufacturers, they started setting up in mid 2020 I think, and even they struggled with yield during process set up. Vaccines are complex to manufacture and typically require supply chains stretching round the world - I think I'm right in saying that the "EU Manufactured" AZ destined for Australia and confiscated in Italy was supplied from South America and essentially bottled (fill and finish) in Italy.

The majors are working to get manufacturing facilities set up and in place. But the idea that if the recipes were just handed over there would be instant supply is naïve and wrong headed. One big issue was rich countries reserving production, which is understandable, but there was a lot of support for COVAX beyond immediate need. You can say that in restricting supply to Africa you created a reservoir for new variants to evolve, but it would be difficult politically in any developed country to put the proposition to voters that we will limit supply domestically to increase global coverage, and by the way some of you will die as a result. You pay a price for adversarial politics that weaponises disease.

I'm really sympathetic to people who have had plans changed, but for the moment it does seem to me the response to what seems like a dangerous variant is right.

orbitmic

Whether people agree or disagree with the response, at the very least, it is now certainly confirmed that the UK is not an outlier in terms of cordoning off South Africa for the time being.

fincastle84

I've just checked FR24 & Air France have a flight inbound to CPT. Just saying.

TomMM

I've asked this a few times over in the Omni threads and never really got a response. A few people responded with what it would take for them to start living a normal life but nobody could really define what the larger exit strategy could look like. Personally I think we will just be adapting to life with Covid in the near future of a few years.

doctoravios

Sadly I think it is too late. Judging by the inflection on the rate of increase in cases in South Africa, the omicron variant has been with us for much longer than a week. It is already seeded everywhere. Selective border closures are futile. Either all borders close or there is no point in closing any. I will, however, suggest that there is some measure in a selective border closure from the point of view of generally dissuading people from travelling abroad and increasing adherence to mitigation strategies.

Regardless of the outcome of the variant I hope this will serve as a stark warning to high income countries that hoarding vaccines will only extend the duration of this pandemic. The number one priority is to vaccinate the unvaccinated as quickly as possible.

tai4de2

Has "hoarding vaccines" been part of the UK government response to the omicron variant, or any previous variant for that matter?

tracon

Booster shots and vaccinating under 18s is a form of hoarding.
Those shots would have been better utilized in under developed parts of the world.

13901

Africa hasn’t got vaccine production capabilities but I still wonder what would’ve happened if the patents for the existing Covid vaccinations were released as Medecins sans frontieres were asking. Probably a lot more capacity would’ve come online from India, as is the case with anti HIV drugs, and that would’ve helped Africa. Instead…

WoodleyBeacon

TryingtoturnLeft

Maybe South Africa and Namibia could donate the vaccines they’re having to dispose because of low uptake. Is that not hoarding?