U.K. Government response to the Omicron variant
 

Of course, I’m no expert, but looking at what seems to be emerging in the early days of this new variant:

It may be significantly more transmissible than the Delta variant.

It also appears to have the vaccine/immunity-evading qualities of the Beta variant (the South Africa variant from early this year) - the variant which was swamped because Delta was more transmissible…. Very, very roughly, that would mean the protection against symptomatic infection is halved. Against serious illness - not clear, from what I’ve read.

And if I understand a fairly technical observation from a serious expert on Twitter, it might also prove resistant to some of the new Covid-fighting drugs that are coming to the market.

Caveat from all concerned - it’s early days, and there’s much yet to learn.

Twitter threads worth your time:

After the complete and utter kicking the government took over the Delta variant, it was inevitable there was going to be a strong reaction. I hope this proves with hindsight to be an overreaction, but I don't think the UK will be alone in implementing a flight ban.

Sounds like a worrying development. I wonder how quickly the red list will grow if this variant is already spreading internationally. Wondering whether I ought to think about cancelling my USA visit next week now. Am I being overly cautious?

yes I would say so. [EDIT: yes I would hope so. But as we know from history like the Delta variant, the flight ban will only slow down the spread of the SA variant and it'll end up in other parts of the world eventually. Then it'll really depend how it evade the vaccines. You can only follow the news and made an educated guess at one point. For now I would not cancel anything though.]

Reports are saying EU now looking at banning all flights from southern Africa as well.

Travel ban by Italy announced this morning, Germany announced they are also imposing restrictions from this evening, if you are looking to fly back to the U.K. via the EU get moving fast.

Someone might expect that the route via DXB might also come to end soon given the most likely aspiration of the UAE government not to be an any travel list of the UK before the Xmas holidays...

Can't say I'm happy at the news, but if the travel ban slows down this variant by two weeks, it will mean that a surge could be delayed until after Christmas, and there will be another 5M boosters in arms. Both of those are worthwhile aims, even if 2022 ends up looking more like 2020 than we would wish.

This is wrong thinking. That new ZA variant has already arrived in Europe. It just had not been officially detected yet. But if that surfaced in Israel and China -> well, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that this variant had already spread globally, incl. Europe.

The travel restrictions you are seeing now are only there so that politicians can show that you acting - nothing more.

This is somewhat off topic for a thread specifically about the U.K. and South Africa but I’ll bite because I’m getting quite tired of seeing overly simplistic posts saying things like this on FT. Sure, it’s definitely more widespread than we realise, but there is a lot more to this decision than you are representing, delaying the spread of the variant by a couple of weeks is the difference between millions more boosters in arms and not before the wave hits during a time where hospitals may already be under strain during winter. It is potentially also the difference between being in lockdown over Christmas and not. To me, that is ample justification regardless of the politics.

Good post and 100% agree with you.

I think the key point is that whilst red lists and flight bans will not stop the new variant, if it is as transmissible as early reports suggest, from arriving in UK (or anywhere else), it will delay the spread and buy some time. Hopefully this time will permit scientists to properly understand what this variant brings and enable countries to prepare accordingly.

No amount of lockdowns, flight bans and hotel quarantine has prevented any other variant arriving in the UK. It didn't even work for Australia. If it is readily transmissible and can compete against Delta, it will spread around the planet as the others have.

It's not about stopping it, but delaying it - that way the smart folks can figure out more about what the impact of the mutations could be and allows more confidence about what the potential impact is. If it's no more transmissible than delta, or we can figure out that it will lower effectivenss of certain vaccines or treatments by x%, then it gives more time to prepare

Three is a difference between having a few people in the country with the variant, versus having 4 daily nonstop flights bringing 100s more every day. the variant will indeed arrive and become seeded in the UK - but stopping nonstop flights and strongly discouraging travel means fewer people will be bringing it in over the next few week and so the variant it will take longer to become dominant in the UK, in which time more boosters will be given and more will be known about the treatment/mitigation plans needed for the variant (if any)

What's the exit strategy?
 

The thread has already wandered close to Omni, so:

For those of you who think that this is an appropriate response, can you tell me what you think our exit strategy from Covid might be?

The scientists have always known that Covid (being a coronavirus) will mutate, so this development is expected - and still it has caused the shutdown of international travel with 24 hours notice. The lockdowns and restrictions of the last 18 months were sold as being necessary 'until we had a vaccine', but we've now got a vaccine, and boosters, and still HMG shuts down travel with 24 hours notice. Covid will keep mutating, for ever (cf flu) - so do we accept that these sorts of instant travel restrictions will be permanent? Or what?

Is there an exit strategy? Or is this the new normal? Because if it is, I'm selling my IAG shares.