U.K. Government response to the Omicron variant
 

Of course, I’m no expert, but looking at what seems to be emerging in the early days of this new variant:

It may be significantly more transmissible than the Delta variant.

It also appears to have the vaccine/immunity-evading qualities of the Beta variant (the South Africa variant from early this year) - the variant which was swamped because Delta was more transmissible…. Very, very roughly, that would mean the protection against symptomatic infection is halved. Against serious illness - not clear, from what I’ve read.

And if I understand a fairly technical observation from a serious expert on Twitter, it might also prove resistant to some of the new Covid-fighting drugs that are coming to the market.

Caveat from all concerned - it’s early days, and there’s much yet to learn.

Twitter threads worth your time:

After the complete and utter kicking the government took over the Delta variant, it was inevitable there was going to be a strong reaction. I hope this proves with hindsight to be an overreaction, but I don't think the UK will be alone in implementing a flight ban.

Sounds like a worrying development. I wonder how quickly the red list will grow if this variant is already spreading internationally. Wondering whether I ought to think about cancelling my USA visit next week now. Am I being overly cautious?

yes I would say so. [EDIT: yes I would hope so. But as we know from history like the Delta variant, the flight ban will only slow down the spread of the SA variant and it'll end up in other parts of the world eventually. Then it'll really depend how it evade the vaccines. You can only follow the news and made an educated guess at one point. For now I would not cancel anything though.]

Reports are saying EU now looking at banning all flights from southern Africa as well.

Travel ban by Italy announced this morning, Germany announced they are also imposing restrictions from this evening, if you are looking to fly back to the U.K. via the EU get moving fast.

Someone might expect that the route via DXB might also come to end soon given the most likely aspiration of the UAE government not to be an any travel list of the UK before the Xmas holidays...

Can't say I'm happy at the news, but if the travel ban slows down this variant by two weeks, it will mean that a surge could be delayed until after Christmas, and there will be another 5M boosters in arms. Both of those are worthwhile aims, even if 2022 ends up looking more like 2020 than we would wish.

This is wrong thinking. That new ZA variant has already arrived in Europe. It just had not been officially detected yet. But if that surfaced in Israel and China -> well, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that this variant had already spread globally, incl. Europe.

The travel restrictions you are seeing now are only there so that politicians can show that you acting - nothing more.

This is somewhat off topic for a thread specifically about the U.K. and South Africa but I’ll bite because I’m getting quite tired of seeing overly simplistic posts saying things like this on FT. Sure, it’s definitely more widespread than we realise, but there is a lot more to this decision than you are representing, delaying the spread of the variant by a couple of weeks is the difference between millions more boosters in arms and not before the wave hits during a time where hospitals may already be under strain during winter. It is potentially also the difference between being in lockdown over Christmas and not. To me, that is ample justification regardless of the politics.

Good post and 100% agree with you.

I think the key point is that whilst red lists and flight bans will not stop the new variant, if it is as transmissible as early reports suggest, from arriving in UK (or anywhere else), it will delay the spread and buy some time. Hopefully this time will permit scientists to properly understand what this variant brings and enable countries to prepare accordingly.

No amount of lockdowns, flight bans and hotel quarantine has prevented any other variant arriving in the UK. It didn't even work for Australia. If it is readily transmissible and can compete against Delta, it will spread around the planet as the others have.

It's not about stopping it, but delaying it - that way the smart folks can figure out more about what the impact of the mutations could be and allows more confidence about what the potential impact is. If it's no more transmissible than delta, or we can figure out that it will lower effectivenss of certain vaccines or treatments by x%, then it gives more time to prepare

Three is a difference between having a few people in the country with the variant, versus having 4 daily nonstop flights bringing 100s more every day. the variant will indeed arrive and become seeded in the UK - but stopping nonstop flights and strongly discouraging travel means fewer people will be bringing it in over the next few week and so the variant it will take longer to become dominant in the UK, in which time more boosters will be given and more will be known about the treatment/mitigation plans needed for the variant (if any)

What's the exit strategy?
 

The thread has already wandered close to Omni, so:

For those of you who think that this is an appropriate response, can you tell me what you think our exit strategy from Covid might be?

The scientists have always known that Covid (being a coronavirus) will mutate, so this development is expected - and still it has caused the shutdown of international travel with 24 hours notice. The lockdowns and restrictions of the last 18 months were sold as being necessary 'until we had a vaccine', but we've now got a vaccine, and boosters, and still HMG shuts down travel with 24 hours notice. Covid will keep mutating, for ever (cf flu) - so do we accept that these sorts of instant travel restrictions will be permanent? Or what?

Is there an exit strategy? Or is this the new normal? Because if it is, I'm selling my IAG shares.

Everyone was mis-sold on the benefits of vaccination, vaccination won't prevent infection or transmission but will help prevent serious illness and/or hospitalisation. We are still at the early stage of this pandemic, not helped by the terrible communication and planning most national governments had in place to deal with this kind of situation. Spanish flu took 2 years to settle, and that was without everyone jetting all over the world, and the virus that caused it is still vaccinated against in the general annual flu shot.

There isn't an exit strategy, because no one has ever planned for an event like this.

And on top of that at no point has success (or what success would look like) ever been clearly defined.

so much for a DODAR.

Am totally with you on this, I absolutely sympathise for those caught up with the change - but am supportive of it. Africa was always going to be a bit more a risk region on going back to the red list (equally the same with India which I would view to be high risk) - in part due to low rates of vaccination and botched figures (SA..). I don't think it was unexpected that this winter would see some restrictions reimposed, but I'd be surprised to see an approach like last year with no travel at all. If we can still continue to travel to countries with high vaccination rates, that have no new variants over the coming months; whilst also maintaining a pretty normal life back at home - then I'm fully supportive.

This country hasn't exactly handled things well so far, but compared to our European neighbours we're in a good place - all without the need to wear masks in the street and be able to have a pint inside - something I'd be keen to keep that way. What does really frustrate me is the number of crew I see on social media kicking off about vaccination, passports and potential travel changes, but they fail to see the bigger picture - in that whilst some destinations may sadly be off limits - things are likely to be in a much better place thanks to these measures being reimposed temporarily.. it's just unfortunate that some folk within the travel industry don't realise their job depends on these being in place; avoiding us being stuck in our homes over the winter months.. and being in the air.

This is a year that scientist warn to be wary of the transmission in the south of the African continent. There is a high proportion of the population infected by HIV, meaning a virus can infect such a person for a long time (several months), with a large amount of replication. Probabilties and evolution being what they are, this means a much higher chance of several viable mutations happening within one body. This is how several previous variants are believed to appear and there are already strong suspicion this is the same for this one too.
Virologist proposed that vaccination were equally shared with those countries and licenses lifted in order to maximize vaccination in this part of the world. This would have led to decrease in tranmssion, which would have led to decrease in random mutations, which led to a decrease of some of them being viable (because for the one saying "virus mutates": when was the last time you heard about a mutation of the plague, which is an endemic virus ?).They were not listen and rich countries acted against that, lobbied by drug companies. This was predicted, there are text from February 2021 describing that exact situation we are in now. Now we need to wait for the results of the research by the ZA team (several weeks) and refine our knowledge. Hopefully it turns out to be "nothing". But if it is something, the West reap what they sow.

We are getting a little O/T here.

But yes you are quite right, is it right we are giving out boosters in Europe and the US or vaccinating under 18s when many people haven't even had their first jab. Perhaps the anti-vaxxers have a point ;)

This is really getting Omni now, but Africa has virtually no vaccine manufacturing infrastructure. You don't just hand over a recipe and someone cooks it up, you need enormous amounts of expertise and kit which simply don't exist in place, and then you need to validate your processes. Serum Inst is one of the world's biggest and best vaccine manufacturers, they started setting up in mid 2020 I think, and even they struggled with yield during process set up. Vaccines are complex to manufacture and typically require supply chains stretching round the world - I think I'm right in saying that the "EU Manufactured" AZ destined for Australia and confiscated in Italy was supplied from South America and essentially bottled (fill and finish) in Italy.

The majors are working to get manufacturing facilities set up and in place. But the idea that if the recipes were just handed over there would be instant supply is naïve and wrong headed. One big issue was rich countries reserving production, which is understandable, but there was a lot of support for COVAX beyond immediate need. You can say that in restricting supply to Africa you created a reservoir for new variants to evolve, but it would be difficult politically in any developed country to put the proposition to voters that we will limit supply domestically to increase global coverage, and by the way some of you will die as a result. You pay a price for adversarial politics that weaponises disease.

I'm really sympathetic to people who have had plans changed, but for the moment it does seem to me the response to what seems like a dangerous variant is right.

Whether people agree or disagree with the response, at the very least, it is now certainly confirmed that the UK is not an outlier in terms of cordoning off South Africa for the time being.

I've just checked FR24 & Air France have a flight inbound to CPT. Just saying.

I've asked this a few times over in the Omni threads and never really got a response. A few people responded with what it would take for them to start living a normal life but nobody could really define what the larger exit strategy could look like. Personally I think we will just be adapting to life with Covid in the near future of a few years.

Sadly I think it is too late. Judging by the inflection on the rate of increase in cases in South Africa, the omicron variant has been with us for much longer than a week. It is already seeded everywhere. Selective border closures are futile. Either all borders close or there is no point in closing any. I will, however, suggest that there is some measure in a selective border closure from the point of view of generally dissuading people from travelling abroad and increasing adherence to mitigation strategies.

Regardless of the outcome of the variant I hope this will serve as a stark warning to high income countries that hoarding vaccines will only extend the duration of this pandemic. The number one priority is to vaccinate the unvaccinated as quickly as possible.

Has "hoarding vaccines" been part of the UK government response to the omicron variant, or any previous variant for that matter?

Booster shots and vaccinating under 18s is a form of hoarding.
Those shots would have been better utilized in under developed parts of the world.

Africa hasn’t got vaccine production capabilities but I still wonder what would’ve happened if the patents for the existing Covid vaccinations were released as Medecins sans frontieres were asking. Probably a lot more capacity would’ve come online from India, as is the case with anti HIV drugs, and that would’ve helped Africa. Instead…

Maybe South Africa and Namibia could donate the vaccines they’re having to dispose because of low uptake. Is that not hoarding?

And ours just walked straight out at Heathrow, and will do a LFT sometime over next two days…..

Just to be clear though: the two biggest problems the UK has right now are the 800,000 people with Delta and the 5 million selfish adults who haven't had a jab. Caution is good, but looking at Omicron's layout, the jump in mutations suggests that it has been running around for a while without obviously causing a Delta style impact in terms of deaths. It is showing a pattern of mutations that have been seen before, albeit not in one big jump. South Africa deserves a lot of credit for identifying and sequencing Omicron so quickly, but it would not surprise me if lit started somewhere else. SA is the only country in the region that sequences on any scale. In 2 or 3 weeks we will know what the impact is on vaccines and mortality, but it's interesting that both BioNTech and Oxford don't believe we've hit a road block here.

Curious how it could be that 61 out of 600 passengers were positive for covid. Do The Netherlands not require a pre-flight covid test before an international flight is allowed into the country?

Two UK cases identified, basically confirming it is probably in a large percentage of countries already and just hasn't been spotted yet / sequenced. UK may well end up being punished like South Africa for detecting a variant that is probably already everywhere. Now things get interesting...

Generally yes, but I think they don't require tests or vaccination reports for those transferring at AMS, though the final destination does. But still, it's a jaw dropping number, over 10%

First lesson: Sequencing? Punished No sequencing: OK you are Covid free
What a joke...

I think within few days almost every civilized country will detect the new variant. So what? Everyone in the basement and all third world countries non sequencing free?

There's little point announcing this if it won't be in force from Sun / Mon, so it'll probably bite in the next "few" days when presumably everyone will need to start getting tests but there is no capacity for them If it's found that the LFTs work then a "self-test to release on day 7(?)" might be sensible.

Yes, but the "casual" listener might hear that as "... after their arrival and then to self-isolate ..." (added word emphasised). No doubt the official texts will clarify.

Oh sheesh, here we go again. What's the old saying, "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result." While I hope that I'm wrong, I have zero confidence lockdowns will be worth the price, since...ah...I'd bet it's already here. And, how do you get 10%? Infected on the flight? What kind of testing methodology?

Even though the current vaccines (plus boosters) may not be effective against OMICRON, headlines about its existance may prod people who are fence sitters re getting vaccinated to take the plunge.

It is really easy to get a negative test if you want to: between possible fake test certificate, there is also paying the tester to take a sample designed to give a negative, or even without paying him either by willful negligence, lack of training or inattention, get a sample that will be negative (not deep enough, not touching the tongue/nose cavity walls, not turning enough, doing it too quick, etc ...).
There are very very little statistics on the amount of positive test in test for "leisure": to get a green pass for that day, for travel. The only I saw were done by my regional newspaper who managed to get their hands over a lot of results from providers over the course of several months and found 700 positives over 2 millions test, during the month of may 2021.

C-W-S, is there any article/podcast of "popular science" dedicated to epidemiology you recommend people reading/listening to? As with many others I find these posts a great insight and a super interesting way of knowing more about the pandemic and I'd like to delve a bit deeper.

Please also consider this post as a veiled suggestion to get your own podcast going. I'll support you on Patreon, no questions asked.