Snow at IAH
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:08 pm
#31
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I've been in Houston for the last three days, and I haven't seen any snow at all. I also drove out to IAH at noon today, no sign of snow, it's just a cold crisp day.
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:18 pm
#32
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Or it will be apocalyptic. Time will tell. :-:
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:21 pm
#33
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It is forecast to occur Friday, which means that it likely will not happen and if it does, it will be light.
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Earlier in the thread there are people saying that they have 3 inches of snow in Houston. I can't see any sign of any
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Earlier in the thread there are people saying that they have 3 inches of snow in Houston. I can't see any sign of any
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:24 pm
#34
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Dec 2, 2009 | 2:24 pm
#35
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Check the dates on the postings... (beat me to it!)
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:32 pm
#36
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Will Customer Al Gore, please pick up the white courtesy phone.
Can't beat that global warming. Tell Exxon in Baytown to turn the refinery onto HIGH.
- HF
- HF
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:39 pm
#37
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HobokenFlyer: That's an excellent di-icing solution, make a low flyby of a flare tower... 
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:42 pm
#38
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Dec 2, 2009 | 2:42 pm
#39
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From what I've read, there's supposed to be an upper-level low approaching S.E. Texas on Friday morning, and the precip associated with it will be riding through a solid column of cold arctic air that the frontal boundary currently over North Texas is dragging into the state. Thankfully, the solid column of cold air will likely mean that there won't be much in the way of ice/sleet.
Not unheard of for a low near the moisture-rich Gulf and a blanket of arctic air to create impressive snowfall totals along the Texas coast. A similar set-up in 2005 resulted in areas around Victoria (closer to Corpus Christi than Houston) receiving about 14" of snow. IIRC, it topped their all-time one-day snowfall totals by about a foot. When I was in Corpus Christi for the August Baseball DO, there were shops selling postcards showing the Palm-lined shore of the bay buried under about 3" of snow.
Still 48 hours out, so definite forecasts are too hard to pin down at the moment, but there's definitely some support in the models for a decent amount of snow on the North side of town.
Latest NWS Discussion:
Code:
FRIDAY: A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS ON TAP AND A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND OVER RIDE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS LIGHT RAIN. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL QUICKLY AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE CAN/ECMWF AND UKMET ALL FAVOR KEEPING THE MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LIGHT QPF TOTALS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME HEAVIER QPF TOTALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE BETWEN 0.7-0.8 INCHES WHICH IS RATHER ROBUST IN THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS. ALSO THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET COUPLET AT 300 MB. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE IN A RRQ OF THE POLAR JET AND IN A LFQ OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET. THIS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AND COULD ACTUALLY BE THE KEY TO DETERMINING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT NEITHER MODEL HAS AGREED WITH THE OTHER. IF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS AS STRONG AS THE GFS/NAM INDICATES...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. IF THE WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PER THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. KEEP UP WITH THE FORECASTS! MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SAT AM OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SPARED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES ZONAL. 43
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:46 pm
#40
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From what I've read on Weather Underground (from folks more knowledgeable than I about weather matters), both the NAM and GFS models indicate heavier precip on the North side of Houston (primarily on the NW Side). Apparently, that would be indicative of significant accumulations (an inch or so). If it happens, that's the sort of snow event that hits Houston once every 30 or so years (I haven't seen an inch or so accumulate near the airport since the 80s). The Christmas Eve snow of 2005 and last year's Snow barely dusted the North Side. It was areas around Sugarland and Baytown that got dumped on for those.
From what I've read, there's supposed to be an upper-level low approaching S.E. Texas on Friday morning, and the precip associated with it will be riding through a solid column of cold arctic air that the frontal boundary currently over North Texas is dragging into the state. Thankfully, the solid column of cold air will likely mean that there won't be much in the way of ice/sleet.
Not unheard of for a low near the moisture-rich Gulf and a blanket of arctic air to create impressive snowfall totals along the Texas coast. A similar set-up in 2005 resulted in areas around Victoria (closer to Corpus Christi than Houston) receiving about 14" of snow. IIRC, it topped their all-time one-day snowfall totals by about a foot. When I was in Corpus Christi for the August Baseball DO, there were shops selling postcards showing the Palm-lined shore of the bay buried under about 3" of snow.
Still 48 hours out, so definite forecasts are too hard to pin down at the moment, but there's definitely some support in the models for a decent amount of snow on the North side of town.
From what I've read, there's supposed to be an upper-level low approaching S.E. Texas on Friday morning, and the precip associated with it will be riding through a solid column of cold arctic air that the frontal boundary currently over North Texas is dragging into the state. Thankfully, the solid column of cold air will likely mean that there won't be much in the way of ice/sleet.
Not unheard of for a low near the moisture-rich Gulf and a blanket of arctic air to create impressive snowfall totals along the Texas coast. A similar set-up in 2005 resulted in areas around Victoria (closer to Corpus Christi than Houston) receiving about 14" of snow. IIRC, it topped their all-time one-day snowfall totals by about a foot. When I was in Corpus Christi for the August Baseball DO, there were shops selling postcards showing the Palm-lined shore of the bay buried under about 3" of snow.
Still 48 hours out, so definite forecasts are too hard to pin down at the moment, but there's definitely some support in the models for a decent amount of snow on the North side of town.
But also, I am a nerd who enjoys weather and by no means an expert at reading GFS or NAM. It'll be interesting either way.
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:50 pm
#41
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Aye, I agree with you (and the NWS folks) but allow me to interject these ideas: NWS forecast for SAT/AUS/DRT include snow over the Hill Country and some decent chance here in AUS on Friday morning. It is scheduled to taper off as the day progresses, which means I don't think IAH will see as much.
But also, I am a nerd who enjoys weather and by no means an expert at reading GFS or NAM. It'll be interesting either way.
But also, I am a nerd who enjoys weather and by no means an expert at reading GFS or NAM. It'll be interesting either way.
Dec 2, 2009 | 2:51 pm
#42
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Dec 2, 2009 | 2:55 pm
#43
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My reading of the progression was that the upper-level low that would interact with the arctic air would be tracking West to East. Since the earlier NWS discussion talked about snow beginning in NW Houston on late Friday morning, that would make sense. The low would track over us by Friday afternoon/evening, as most of the snow tapered off in the Hill Country.
Dec 2, 2009 | 3:07 pm
#44
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4PM Discussion is out:
Looks like the models shifted slightly since this morning so the next two days will be telling. But in any event, it's going to be cold and there is going to be some snow, so I hope IAH has the deicing truck gassed up and ready to roll.
Code:
177 fxus64 kewx 022201 afdewx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 401 PM CST Wednesday Dec 2 2009 Discussion... cold air advection will continue tonight into Friday ahead of the approaching upper level trough and result in temperatures well below normal across much of the area. A quick look at the surface observations across the central and northern plains shows 3pm temperatures in the 20s and 30s...with a few spots in the upper teens. Dewpoint temperatures in the teens are common in this airmass...which will build into our area going into Friday. The large trough taking shape across the northern plains will lift NE over the next 48-72h. At the same time...shortwave energy will move around the base...across the southern rockies Thursday and across our area Friday. A coastal trough is forecast to deepen Thursday night in response to the approaching upper level short wave trough. The forecast position and magnitude of the coastal trough will be a big player in the snow forecast. There are some differences among the 12z model suite with regard to the coastal trough...with the 12z GFS more bullish on the quantitative precipitation forecast...especially across our southeast counties. The 12z GFS forecast soundings for our southeast counties show classic snow traces Friday...so precipitation will likely be all snow. Our forecast snowfall amounts are generally a blend of the 12z nam12 and gfs40 snowfall amount output...minus a quarter to half inch for anticipated melting. Will pass on a Winter Storm Watch for now given our forecast amounts and uncertainty with forecast coastal trough evolution...but a watch may be necessary with later model runs. For now...have updated the Special Weather Statement and created web graphics to highlight the snow forecast. In addition...a hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning and a freeze warning will likely be required. The high amplitude synoptic pattern currently in place is forecast to be replaced with a near zonal pattern across the southern U.S. By 12z Monday. Another front is forecast to push through 12z Monday...with a quick turn-around and another front Tuesday night. Temperatures will generally be below to well below normal for the next seven days. We're forecasting new record low maximum temperatures Friday for the entire area...and will likely see a few new record low temperatures on Saturday morning. &&
Dec 2, 2009 | 3:08 pm
#45
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Here's a link to a GFS/NAM model run showing the snow being pulled in by the low, tracking from Midland/Odessa, through the Hill Country, and then along the North side of Houston.