Originally Posted by
Mackieman
Snow doesn't happen like that in Houston, or most of Texas for that matter. It is forecast to occur Friday, which means that it likely will not happen and if it does, it will be light.
Or it will be apocalyptic. Time will tell. :-:
From what I've read on Weather Underground (from folks more knowledgeable than I about weather matters), both the NAM and GFS models indicate heavier precip on the North side of Houston (primarily on the NW Side). Apparently, that would be indicative of significant accumulations (an inch or so). If it happens, that's the sort of snow event that hits Houston once every 30 or so years (I haven't seen an inch or so accumulate near the airport since the 80s). The Christmas Eve snow of 2005 and last year's Snow barely dusted the North Side. It was areas around Sugarland and Baytown that got dumped on for those.
From what I've read, there's supposed to be an upper-level low approaching S.E. Texas on Friday morning, and the precip associated with it will be riding through a solid column of cold arctic air that the frontal boundary currently over North Texas is dragging into the state. Thankfully, the solid column of cold air will likely mean that there won't be much in the way of ice/sleet.
Not unheard of for a low near the moisture-rich Gulf and a blanket of arctic air to create impressive snowfall totals along the Texas coast. A similar set-up in 2005 resulted in areas around Victoria (closer to Corpus Christi than Houston) receiving about 14" of snow. IIRC, it topped their all-time one-day snowfall totals by about a foot. When I was in Corpus Christi for the August Baseball DO, there were shops selling postcards showing the Palm-lined shore of the bay buried under about 3" of snow.
Still 48 hours out, so definite forecasts are too hard to pin down at the moment, but there's definitely some support in the models for a decent amount of snow on the North side of town.
Latest NWS Discussion:
Code:
FRIDAY:
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS ON TAP AND A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND OVER
RIDE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY AS LIGHT RAIN. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL QUICKLY AND
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE CAN/ECMWF AND UKMET ALL FAVOR
KEEPING THE MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LIGHT QPF TOTALS.
THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME HEAVIER QPF TOTALS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE BETWEN 0.7-0.8 INCHES
WHICH IS RATHER ROBUST IN THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS. ALSO THE MODELS
SHOW A DECENT JET COUPLET AT 300 MB. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE IN A
RRQ OF THE POLAR JET AND IN A LFQ OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE AND COULD ACTUALLY BE THE KEY TO DETERMINING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT NEITHER MODEL HAS AGREED WITH THE
OTHER. IF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS AS STRONG AS THE GFS/NAM
INDICATES...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. IF THE WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
PER THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION AND THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. KEEP UP WITH
THE FORECASTS!
MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. A
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SAT AM OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SPARED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. A BRIEF WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES ZONAL. 43