Ok, I know that there is a lot of information on EUA's in many threads on the board already. Still, I think it would be hugely useful to have this question answered in a consolidated way:

What is the best strategy for maximizing your chances of an EUA before you've bought a ticket?

I know to look at the F bucket (though I still don't know how to find that info), and don't trust the seat map etc etc. But are there good "rules of thumb" one can use to select the itinerary with the best EUA chances?

In my particular case, I want to book a RT OAK-IAH-OAK for the weekend of Jan 19-21. I could fly Friday at noon, or the Friday night red-eye, or even the Saturday 6am. Return could be one of Sunday evening's flights, or the Monday 9am.

Given that situation, what process do you more expert members go through when deciding which flights to choose? For example, maybe Friday afternoon would be awful because of business travelers returning home... then again, maybe business travelers can't leave at noon (so they'll go to SFO for an evening flight). Are red-eyes always a good shot at EUA? I'm looking for guidance of this sort... like I said, the rules of thumb.

Of course I'm immediately interested in what I should do for this upcoming trip, but I would love to hear more general information: what to look for, what to avoid. What strategies do you use when your schedule is flexible?

I only need to be in Houston for a day or so, and all itineraries cost the same at this point, so maximum EUA chance is my top priority. I'm Silver Elite.

Thanks for your input.

I find most of my Silver upgrades come on Saturdays.

Cool, thanks. I guess the theory (if we can make one from one piece of data) is that there are a lot fewer business travelers (read: gold & platinum elites) on Saturdays.

farenthold thanks a bunch for that information... Not only is it useful itself, but it finally got me to figure out that only the Platinum KVS will show me CO reward availability! Teach a man to fish, and whatnot... ^

I'll upgrade my KVS and see how the Saturday flights and return legs look too.

I'm still quite curious to hear other peoples' experiences and tips. Obviously it's possible that the availability on that noon flight could dry up in the next couple of weeks. If several flights are showing large reward availability, how do you choose between them? It seems the trick is to avoid business routes and business times. What times are best and worst for EUA chances? I'm guessing that my preference for OAK over SFO is a big help at EUA time. Do others agree?

Hmm... or am I asking for the kind of information that nobody wants to give out (so that THEY can use it)?

What good is knowing the upgrade availability on a flight in 2 weeks? You're outside your upgrade window anyway, and you don't know your upgrade priority even if you were inside it.

More importantly, the A seats will eventually become F seats if unsold, so whether F is 0 or 4 or 7 or 9 at this point is irrelevant. All the A seats will turn into F seats is unsold. If A sells out, there won't be any F to go around.

It's the A number you should be looking at.

Aha, yes, this is the sort of thing I was thinking about.... a lot is going to change in two weeks.

So this gets to the heart of my question -- I want to get to [fill in the city] in 2 or 3 weeks. How can I maximize my EUA chances? Maybe looking at fare buckets isn't even that relevant (beyond seeing that FC isn't already full).

Channa, if I understand you correctly, it would be about as useful to just look at the seat map. Is that right? Your statements also remind me that selling out A is just as bad as EUAing out F. So the bit above, focused on business travelers, isn't as much of a driving factor either.

I know there's no magic bullet (all silvers are guaranteed upgrades for flights departing between 12:05 and 12:11!), but surely there are patterns. What are these patterns? is the discussion I'm trying to create.

Do any of you book your flights based on potential EUAs? Or just treat it as pure luck of the draw (well, less and less luck as you move up the Elite ladder, of course).

God no, I didn't say that. Seatmaps are never an indication of load.


Selling out of A would be a disaster. A0 F0 is infinitely worse than A9 F0. Those unsold A seats will eventually become F seats.


So is it a science or an art? Here it goes:

1. Aircraft -- you want an F-seat friendly aircraft.

2. Market -- you want a leisure market. But not a leisure market that rich people pay for (e.g., LAS), or where there are a lot of Elites.

3. Load -- you want an empty flight, if possible

4. Seatmap -- this one is where you gotta get a feel for it -- your best picture is a seatmap where the Elite zone is empty. Now this alone doesn't mean anything if you're booking far out, so ideally, you want a flight where the back seats are full, and the Elite seats are empty.

5. Airport -- you want the "backwater" airport for the area. BWI over DCA, ONT instead of LAX, that sort of thing. OAK is better than SFO, but there are still a lot of Elites here. If you can get to SMF, even better. Get on the SMF redeye to IAH just after midnight, and I'd almost be willing to bet money that you'll get the upgrade (I said almost). The last time I flew that flight, there were all of 2 Elites on the flight (me and my companion). Upgraded 5 days out, coach was oversold, F was empty. They op-upped a few people, and ultimately had to op-up a bunch of random non-Elites to resolve the oversale. The flight was so weird, all these first-timers in F on the redeye. Usually on the redeye, nobody eats (everyone did here), and the biz travellers have a scotch or something and go to bed (the flight cleaned out the liquor drawer -- everything was gone, except the scotch).

Thanks, channa... great information.

I think SMF is well over the "is it really worth it?" line. I'm going to stick to OAK, look for a good-looking availability and seat map, and hope for the best.

Gosh, only last week coach was fine with me....

If the flight is already full in first, then it *certainly* is an important piece of info to find out.

We all know the real answer to the question is, "How do I get EUAed" is, "Fly NWA".

Based on many comments on this forum, if I were silver I would assume that the chances of an upgrade are going to be close to zero no matter what flight you pick so you may as well pick the one with the most comfortable Y seat you can get. If the upgrade comes through praise the gods and enjoy.

As a plat I know I have at least some chance for an upgrade on CO so, if I have some flexibility in my choice of flights, I use the following rules:

1. Check the availability and cost of Y, Z and R fares. If you book one of them you're either already in F or can immediately upgrade to it. They usually cost more than you would want to pay but sometimes you'll be pleasantly surprised when they are only a small increase over the lowest available coach fare. If that doesn't work...

2. Pick a flight on which a good bulkhead or exit row seat is open. If all else fails you'll still be relatively comfortable on the flight.

3. Forget 737-500s. Only 8 FC seats. And the FC cabin is kind of claustrophobic.

4. If possible -- especially if it's a business trip and you'll be reimbursed -- book a higher fare class than the lowest available. That will put you ahead of others at your same elite level.

5. Check how many exit row seats are already taken. Each of those is probably a plat (now gold too) who will be your competition. The fewer exit rows seats taken the better.

6. Check how many elite seats are already taken. Again, more open seats = fewer elites on the flight.

7. Use an availability tool to check the number of FC seats open. A9 is good.

I would expect predictions based on these factors to be more reliable the closer you are to the day of the flight. And despite all of your research often all possible flights look like poor upgrade possibilities.

Do these rules work? Impossible to say, but at least I tried. Out of 59 segments I flew on CO that were EUA-able (not RJ and not an automatic upgrade from a Y fare), I was upgraded on 33, or 56%. Many of my flights were IAH-DCA, IAH-BOS, AUS-EWR which are very tough upgrades no matter what.

I think that was the point. They'll release the upgrade seats sooner or later, just make sure there are seats.


This is said all the time around here, but frankly, out of the Bay Area, my NWA upgrade rate is about 5% higher than my CO rate.

If I were a commuter within the heartland, of course, I would imagine my rate would be much, much higher.

Well, bringing this back to my immediate situation for a moment:

I'm going to book the Saturday noon flight OAK-IAH (CO231). I'm going to return on one of Monday evening's flights... either CO285 at 6pm or CO1789 at 9pm. Both are on 738's.

Comparing the two maps, I see this:

231 has no exit row seats reserved, and a total of 15 elites. It's about half-full, and has 1 passenger in FC.

1789 has one exit row seat reserved, and only 6 elites. It is nearly empty, and has 1 passenger in FC.

I don't have an availability tool at work, so maybe someone can shed some light on the A/F situation for these two?

Intuition tells me that the later flight has a better shot, I guess because it's so empty overall (of both Elites and nons). Anyone agree? Disagree?