Well, bringing this back to my immediate situation for a moment:

I'm going to book the Saturday noon flight OAK-IAH (CO231). I'm going to return on one of Monday evening's flights... either CO285 at 6pm or CO1789 at 9pm. Both are on 738's.

Comparing the two maps, I see this:

231 has no exit row seats reserved, and a total of 15 elites. It's about half-full, and has 1 passenger in FC.

1789 has one exit row seat reserved, and only 6 elites. It is nearly empty, and has 1 passenger in FC.

I don't have an availability tool at work, so maybe someone can shed some light on the A/F situation for these two?

Intuition tells me that the later flight has a better shot, I guess because it's so empty overall (of both Elites and nons). Anyone agree? Disagree?