Originally Posted by
jk2317
Do any of you book your flights based on potential EUAs? Or just treat it as pure luck of the draw (well, less and less luck as you move up the Elite ladder, of course).
Based on many comments on this forum, if I were silver I would assume that the chances of an upgrade are going to be close to zero no matter what flight you pick so you may as well pick the one with the most comfortable Y seat you can get. If the upgrade comes through praise the gods and enjoy.
As a plat I know I have at least some chance for an upgrade on CO so, if I have some flexibility in my choice of flights, I use the following rules:
1. Check the availability and cost of Y, Z and R fares. If you book one of them you're either already in F or can immediately upgrade to it. They usually cost more than you would want to pay but sometimes you'll be pleasantly surprised when they are only a small increase over the lowest available coach fare. If that doesn't work...
2. Pick a flight on which a good bulkhead or exit row seat is open. If all else fails you'll still be relatively comfortable on the flight.
3. Forget 737-500s. Only 8 FC seats. And the FC cabin is kind of claustrophobic.
4. If possible -- especially if it's a business trip and you'll be reimbursed -- book a higher fare class than the lowest available. That will put you ahead of others at your same elite level.
5. Check how many exit row seats are already taken. Each of those is probably a plat (now gold too) who will be your competition. The fewer exit rows seats taken the better.
6. Check how many elite seats are already taken. Again, more open seats = fewer elites on the flight.
7. Use an availability tool to check the number of FC seats open. A9 is good.
I would expect predictions based on these factors to be more reliable the closer you are to the day of the flight. And despite all of your research often all possible flights look like poor upgrade possibilities.
Do these rules work? Impossible to say, but at least I tried. Out of 59 segments I flew on CO that were EUA-able (not RJ and not an automatic upgrade from a Y fare), I was upgraded on 33, or 56%. Many of my flights were IAH-DCA, IAH-BOS, AUS-EWR which are very tough upgrades no matter what.