Flying JFK-PTY-BOG this Saturday. I am a first time Silver member so I know that puts me on the bottom of the list, but these flights are mostly non-elite leisure travelers so I'm thinking I have a possibility. As of now, there are 7 out of 12 business seats open outbound and 11 out of 12 on the way back.

What are my chances?

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Better on the outbound than on the return based on those numbers.

how did you know how many open seat are in F? I had been able to find these stats on Copa's website.

I am getting the numbers from Continental. Searching for flights from JFK-PTY and then clicking on view seats. The economy seat map matches what I see on the Copa site, so I'm assuming F is the same as well.

Empty seats on the seat map do not necessarily mean available for sale.

Use a tool like FlightStats or mine for more accurate details:

Export from Wandering Aramean Travel Tools

Interesting. So on the return on 4/9, there are 11 of 12 seats open on the CO map, but 0 of 12 showing on flightstats. What would explain the difference. Presumably those who've purchased C tickets would have chosen their seats already.

This is a false assumption to make, hence the reason that the seat map is rarely a good indicator.

Off the exact subject, but are you aware that if you purchased your ticket on copaair.com, they will give you 125% eqm on any fare?

I actually just read that this AM.

I fly COPA IAD-PTY-MDE a lot. I've never used the tools discussed here (though I should learn). I go on COPA.com and check pricing on IAD-PTY business class. If they are still selling business promo (as opposed to full fare business) seats a few days before the trip, I know that an upgrade is highly likely (as a Gold).

JFK-PTY business class is showing 4 available business promo seats for 4/2. I am guessing that they have most of the seats unsold at this time. I would check back on Thursday after Plats and Golds have been upgraded. If they are still showing promo seats for sale in business you will have a very good chance. If the only seats are full price, you probably still have a good shot - it will depend on how many other silvers are on the flight.

If you don't get the email, you still may have a chance. On the last IAD-PTY I did not get an email, but even though business appeared sold out before I left for the airport, I was still assigned business class when I checked in.

For this year, I am 6/8 flying between IAD and PTY, and one of those misses was because of an inoperable seat that would have been mine. FWIW, I always get the upgrade PTY-MDE, and I would bet you get the upgrade PTY-BOG. They are also showing 4 business promo seats and 4 full priced seats for that flight (and there are only 10 total business seats on the plane).

The Embraer 190 business class on COPA is nicer than business on their 737's (at least the older ones that fly between IAD and PTY). You will get a decent meal, even though it's only about a 1 hour flight. However, if they offer you the chicken ravioli on PTY-BOG, steer clear of that! It's flavorless.

:-:Another warning: Make sure you show up plenty early. COPA likes to board early and leave early. In my experience, boarding starts 45 minutes before flight time, so if you need overhead bin space, you will want to be there to take advantage of the blue carpet.

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Keep in mind that the "promo" and full biz seat numbers you note above are not necessarily additive. Most likely is that the flight inventory is C4 D4 which means at least 4 seats but not necessarily 8 for sale.

I couldn't have written this better myself. Great post.

Thanks for the very good info. In my previous experience with COPA, they needed a full 45 minutes for boarding and just as long for deplaning due to the ridiculous amount of carry-ons.

The return on 4/9 from PTY to JFK is showing "0" in F on flightstats. Should I take that at face value.

I've done LAX-PTY-MVD, LAX-PTY-EZE, and LAX-PTY-GRU many many times.

As silver, I had about 75% upgrade rate
As gold+, about 95% upgrade rate

Never checked availability and never had problems. They few times I didn't get an upgrade was when other flights were delayed and PAX thrown on my flight (or me thrown on another flight)

The last experience I had with Copa in UIO was that the GA was not at all attentive to the UG process. When I inquired about it, he said "1st class is full" when in fact there were only two seats taken. The GA @ LAX was equally disinterested. This was a couple of years ago, so perhaps things have improved since.