I fly COPA IAD-PTY-MDE a lot. I've never used the tools discussed here (though I should learn). I go on COPA.com and check pricing on IAD-PTY business class. If they are still selling business promo (as opposed to full fare business) seats a few days before the trip, I know that an upgrade is highly likely (as a Gold).
JFK-PTY business class is showing 4 available business promo seats for 4/2. I am guessing that they have most of the seats unsold at this time. I would check back on Thursday after Plats and Golds have been upgraded. If they are still showing promo seats for sale in business you will have a very good chance. If the only seats are full price, you probably still have a good shot - it will depend on how many other silvers are on the flight.
If you don't get the email, you still may have a chance. On the last IAD-PTY I did not get an email, but even though business appeared sold out before I left for the airport, I was still assigned business class when I checked in.
For this year, I am 6/8 flying between IAD and PTY, and one of those misses was because of an inoperable seat that would have been mine. FWIW, I always get the upgrade PTY-MDE, and I would bet you get the upgrade PTY-BOG. They are also showing 4 business promo seats and 4 full priced seats for that flight (and there are only 10 total business seats on the plane).
The Embraer 190 business class on COPA is nicer than business on their 737's (at least the older ones that fly between IAD and PTY). You will get a decent meal, even though it's only about a 1 hour flight. However, if they offer you the chicken ravioli on PTY-BOG, steer clear of that! It's flavorless.
:-:Another warning: Make sure you show up plenty early. COPA likes to board early and leave early. In my experience, boarding starts 45 minutes before flight time, so if you need overhead bin space, you will want to be there to take advantage of the blue carpet.