As I guessed, the NHC sharpened the rightward curve with the 11 pm advisory.

If I were living in the Carolinas, I'd be paying a lot more attention to Ike than to Hanna.

Good call!

As I recall, disaster insiders have a real fear of a major Carolina hurricane. It's been too long, the guard is down.

Ike is gettign close to looking annular. He's going to be bad news wherever he makes landfall. Let's hope he goes fishing instead, but it looks like at the very least the Bahamas will feel his wrath.

I suspect Ike will ultimately pull a Floyd, but closer to the Florida coast. People in Miami will be freaking out until he makes his turn.

Yep ... I DONT like Ike

Cat 4, 145 as of 5AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...?5day#contents

Cr*p, mrs pbiflyer is flying to Rome next Thursday via ATL. Looks just about the time that Ike will be visiting the southeast coast. Could be a mess getting her out. Arrrrrgggggghhhhhh.
SRQ Guy, I hope you are right it curves away. It looks nasty. If you look at the historical maps of hurricanes in the same position, all but one curve away. Here: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...o.html#a_topad. Hopefully, this one will follow course.

On the bright side, currently all of the models show a recurve, though some take Ike much closer to Florida before the recurve than others.

Please don't make plans based on my posts though, whatever you do. Anyone in southeast Florida should be making preliminary preparations for this storm. If it misses FL it's likely to be a fairly close call.

The 11am advisory seems to puth South Florida more directly in the path of Ike.
My plans are to pack up the wife, kids, dogs, and fish and head to SRQ. You have room, don't you? :D

I am supposed to fly out Sunday night through Wednesday. Hopefully, we will have a difinitive answer by then, so I can either cancel or safely go.
Looking at alternatives for mrs pbiflyer to get to Rome. She is not really thrilled about the option of going through JFK on September 11th, which right now is the only alternative to ATL.

Reading the discussion, there is a chance that the high pressure ridge pushing it south may not be as strong as thought. This would put the storm on a more northerly route.
Good news for Florida, not so good for the rest of the US.

I am calling for Ike to hit just north of Ft Lauderdale as a Cat 3 or 4, cut inland towards Lake O, then turn north, then northeast, and back out over the water either heading towards Bermuda, or being turned back to the US coastline depending on what pressure systems develop mid next week.

Ooh, a personal forecast co0ntest? :D

I predict a closest approach of ~100 miles of the Florida coast as it turns, possibly clipping the Outer Banks on its way out.

What....no flooded subways in Manhattan? :)

I am thinking you are right. Just close enough to Florida fo rme to cancel my trip, put up the shutters and cause havoc with the mrs trip next Thursday. :mad:

Latest projection has a more westward track.

Wow ... looks like a bad next week for the Carribean and So FL

Storm track continues to shift south ... looks like it may cross FL and head for the Gulf.

Poor Bahamas - I hope everything is battered down :(