Hurricane Ike
 

Latest on Hurricane Ike from Hamweather. Currently he's projected moving toward the Straits of Florida, passing near Miami as a Cat 3. Keep an eye on this guy, September is forcast as an active hurricane month with two intense hurricanes.

A-ha! Further validation of my thesis that God hates FL.

It bears watching for sure. (Un)Forturnatly, there is plenty of open water between there and Florida, so anything can happen.

true ;) but goalie-parents have a place in pbi and i have a very dear friend who lives in fll so here's to ike dropping down just a little bit to the south

Already up to a cat 3. But far enough away, no one seems to know if it will hit Florida, turn north following Hanna, or go straight into the Gulf.

Check the paths of the models on the page posted by the OP - they show how much of a guessing game these predictions are at this stage of the storrm system's life (either way, thanks to the OP for the early heads-up).

To be fair, no storm has ever come from where Ike is and come anywhere near Florida. Andrew is the closest analog, but it was hundreds of miles south of where Ike is when it was at the same longitude.

Personally I think the NHC has overestimated the Bermuda high, but only time will tell.

Agreed. I hope they are.

Forcasts indicate the potential of Hanna and Ike landfalls within four days. <<of each other>>

It's too early for any serious talk of landfall forecasts for Ike.

What did Johnny Unitas say? ;)

The models are really starting to trend north and east. Look for the NHC to adjust its track accordingly at 11.

Are you in the "business"?

No, but I do follow these things obsessively and have learned a lot doing so.

I read the forums at Storm2K where a lot of professional meteorologists do a lot of teaching of the business to us interested laypeople. :)

Florida, Louisiana, and Tina are on alert.

As I guessed, the NHC sharpened the rightward curve with the 11 pm advisory.

If I were living in the Carolinas, I'd be paying a lot more attention to Ike than to Hanna.

Good call!

As I recall, disaster insiders have a real fear of a major Carolina hurricane. It's been too long, the guard is down.

Ike is gettign close to looking annular. He's going to be bad news wherever he makes landfall. Let's hope he goes fishing instead, but it looks like at the very least the Bahamas will feel his wrath.

I suspect Ike will ultimately pull a Floyd, but closer to the Florida coast. People in Miami will be freaking out until he makes his turn.

Yep ... I DONT like Ike

Cat 4, 145 as of 5AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...?5day#contents

Cr*p, mrs pbiflyer is flying to Rome next Thursday via ATL. Looks just about the time that Ike will be visiting the southeast coast. Could be a mess getting her out. Arrrrrgggggghhhhhh.
SRQ Guy, I hope you are right it curves away. It looks nasty. If you look at the historical maps of hurricanes in the same position, all but one curve away. Here: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...o.html#a_topad. Hopefully, this one will follow course.

On the bright side, currently all of the models show a recurve, though some take Ike much closer to Florida before the recurve than others.

Please don't make plans based on my posts though, whatever you do. Anyone in southeast Florida should be making preliminary preparations for this storm. If it misses FL it's likely to be a fairly close call.

The 11am advisory seems to puth South Florida more directly in the path of Ike.
My plans are to pack up the wife, kids, dogs, and fish and head to SRQ. You have room, don't you? :D

I am supposed to fly out Sunday night through Wednesday. Hopefully, we will have a difinitive answer by then, so I can either cancel or safely go.
Looking at alternatives for mrs pbiflyer to get to Rome. She is not really thrilled about the option of going through JFK on September 11th, which right now is the only alternative to ATL.

Reading the discussion, there is a chance that the high pressure ridge pushing it south may not be as strong as thought. This would put the storm on a more northerly route.
Good news for Florida, not so good for the rest of the US.

I am calling for Ike to hit just north of Ft Lauderdale as a Cat 3 or 4, cut inland towards Lake O, then turn north, then northeast, and back out over the water either heading towards Bermuda, or being turned back to the US coastline depending on what pressure systems develop mid next week.

Ooh, a personal forecast co0ntest? :D

I predict a closest approach of ~100 miles of the Florida coast as it turns, possibly clipping the Outer Banks on its way out.

What....no flooded subways in Manhattan? :)

I am thinking you are right. Just close enough to Florida fo rme to cancel my trip, put up the shutters and cause havoc with the mrs trip next Thursday. :mad:

Latest projection has a more westward track.

Wow ... looks like a bad next week for the Carribean and So FL

Storm track continues to shift south ... looks like it may cross FL and head for the Gulf.

Poor Bahamas - I hope everything is battered down :(

With the latest track, I am now officially concerned...

Fortunately, at the moment Ike seems to be falling apart. Unfortunately, he has plenty of time to restrengthen before landfall.

Sadly, they accurately predicted that weakening and have said that the wind shear causing it will drop later today/tonight, allowing it to re-strengthen. Seems like it will hit wherever it is going as a Cat 4.
My hotel reservations in Naples is looking like a poor choice. Thankfully, I have other options further north.

Well fortunately for us (not so much for those in the Keys or on the northern Gulf Coast) the models have all trended far west and show a major storm heading for the northern GOM.

What a crazy storm.

Sunday I have to decide whether or not to shutter up. If the trend continues, I won't.

Ike got the mojo workin' :eek:

Heck yeah he do. And I get to eat crow for my forecast earlier in this thread. :D

"Expect the unexpected." This is one of those times. Let's be careful folks!

Just in case, I have made reservations near Jackson, MS for next weekend. The hotel is already almost sold out. This could be bad for LA as it would be hard for many to get the news as they don't have power yet.

There's a first time for everything. To be honest, given the historic tracks, if it does thread the needle, it's an extremely unusual occurrence.

But of course, being extremely unusual could do interesting things to the models.

And if he manages to hit NOLA, it's just proof that NOLA has done something to upset god :eek:

Does look like we are getting Hanna - really, it's too kind, you shouldn't have bothered ;)

:D You're welcome.

I was just thinking how funny it is that I was so worried abotu Ike, and now it appears that the eastern seaboard and yes, maybe even our friends in the UK will likely see more from Hanna than we will from Ike.

We're still in the "cone of terror", though, so I won't let my guard down.