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-   -   Hurricane Ike (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/communitybuzz/862464-hurricane-ike.html)

SRQ Guy Sep 8, 2008 9:42 am


Originally Posted by Mary2e (Post 10331534)
This is remiding me of 2005 (?) when Florida was getting hit every other week :)

It was 2004 when Florida got hit every other week.

In 2005 there were a ton of storms, but except for Wilma they all went elsewhere.

So far this year, we've just had two tropical storms. No biggie. :)

Mary2e Sep 8, 2008 9:43 am

Thanks... that was the year I had to keep cancelling and rebooking my extremely cheap fare to FL. What started out a $135 fare ended up costing nearly $350 after all the revisions and changes in fare class :eek: :eek:

I finally got to go in Oct.

Learned my lesson - don't go to Florida in Sept :)

Cholula Sep 8, 2008 10:04 am

There must be a gazillion hurricane tracking sites.

I like Stormpulse for it’s animated graphics and the fact that you can click on any city shown and find out how far it is from the hurricane.

Just an FYI for weather junkies.

hiyo Sep 8, 2008 10:08 am


Originally Posted by Cholula (Post 10331682)
There must be a gazillion hurricane tracking sites.

I like Stormpulse for it’s animated graphics and the fact that you can click on any city shown and find out how far it is from the hurricane.

Just an FYI for weather junkies.

Nice, thanks. I have a daughter in Lake Charles, so am spending a lot of time on weather sites lately.

uncertaintraveler Sep 8, 2008 10:20 am

Deleted deleted deleted

oldpenny16 Sep 8, 2008 10:25 am

No more reservations!
 
Sorry to say this folks, but all the beds and even the Lazy Boy chairs in my house are booked up for people thinking they will have to flee Hurricane Ike.

No more room at my inn!

This storm could really hurt Texas financially. Other states as well.

I have people making reservations with me from Houston, Abbeyville Louisiana and Baytown Texas.

Flaflyer Sep 8, 2008 2:36 pm


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10331838)
Sorry to say this folks, but all the beds and even the Lazy Boy chairs in my house are booked up for people thinking they will have to flee Hurricane Ike.

Do those Chez Hostel Oldpenny chairs come with free booze supplied for the Hurricane Party? :D

I live in Florida and have a fairly high "I'll ride this one out" level.

That said, I would NOT be in Galveston at noon on Saturday. Run west, TX folks.

oldpenny16 Sep 10, 2008 8:04 am

yes, free booze.
 

Originally Posted by Flaflyer (Post 10333463)
Do those Chez Hostel Oldpenny chairs come with free booze supplied for the Hurricane Party? :D

I live in Florida and have a fairly high "I'll ride this one out" level.

That said, I would NOT be in Galveston at noon on Saturday. Run west, TX folks.

The cable news networks are failing us on this storm. Politics and Palin are getting too much coverage.

We need weather news. The Local on the 8's on the Weather Channel is driving me crazy.

Once people get to my house and turn in their car keys, the bar is open to them.

Dark, rainy and grim here. My office is closing down and we are all working from home.

Not that Ike is expected to hit up here, but the computer network is being preserved! Save the computers!

OP

SRQ Guy Sep 10, 2008 8:07 am


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10344163)
The cable news networks are failing us on this storm. Politics and Palin are getting too much coverage.

We need weather news. The Local on the 8's on the Weather Channel is driving me crazy.

I feel for you. Here in Florida we have excellent local weather coverage, even through the political crap. When tropical systems threaten, everything else takes a back seat.

Use wunderground.com as your weather source, it's far better than the AccuWeather (more like Slcakuweather) crap that TWC uses.

oldpenny16 Sep 10, 2008 9:09 am

Thanks for the tip! I'll check that out. wunderground!

The officials down on the coast are trying to get people to evacuate. Highwy 37 out of Corpus Christi has been flagged and it is now legal to drive on the shoulder of the road. Nearly 90 miles with few services!

The big ranch owners don't want any development along that highway.

I'm discussed with the cable news stations. One minute of weather news and the rest is politics.

Our local news folks aren't up to speed on this situation.

Flaflyer Sep 10, 2008 9:40 am

He's up to 90 MPH and has 3 days of HOT water ahead. :(

The latest track shows Ike to be a good Republican.

He goes straight till he hits the Texas coast, then takes a Hard Right turn and heads straight for Crawford, Texas.

I know in Texas one thing outranks weather and politics. Anyone planning to play a college football game round San Antonio Saturday afternoon, or around Dallas on Sunday? :eek:

LoneStarMike Sep 10, 2008 10:26 am


Originally Posted by Flaflyer (Post 10344705)
Anyone planning to play a college football game round San Antonio Saturday afternoon, or around Dallas on Sunday? :eek:

The University of Texas has a football game scheduled against the University of Arkansas in Austin on Saturday afternoon. UT officials said they are watching the storm closely.

swag Sep 10, 2008 10:33 am

The Cowboys are at home, but don't play until Monday night. The odd design of Texas Stadium shields the game from wind, and most of the fans (but not the field) from rain.

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 11:00 am

Ike sure looks to have more northern vector than forcast.

swag Sep 10, 2008 11:08 am


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10344487)
I'm discussed with the cable news stations. One minute of weather news and the rest is politics.

Our local news folks aren't up to speed on this situation.

The channel 8 (local DFW) midday news just spent the first 6 minutes of the broadcast talking about Ike. I'm sure it's dominating coverage in Houston even more.

SRQ Guy Sep 10, 2008 11:10 am


Originally Posted by pierre mclopez (Post 10345162)
Ike sure looks to have more northern vector than forcast.

Based on what? He's been hitting his forecast points all morning.

SRQ Guy Sep 10, 2008 11:13 am

I see what you're seeing I think. Ike's stair-stepping, meaning he moves north then west. His average motion is right on the NHC track, though. Strong hurricanes always stair-step around ridges.

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 11:24 am

Since exiting Cuba, looks darn near NW.

Hartmann Sep 10, 2008 11:30 am

I just can't believe all the attention being paid to this thing... We get it, it's a hurricane. Texans, Floridians, Louisianians, Mississippians, and Alabamans have dealt with storms before, yet the news stations feel the need to flip out about it every time.

Yes, there will be rain, wind, downed power lines, tree limbs, etc. and the airports will be affected, but we don't need to hear about the waves getting higher four days in advance :rolleyes:

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 11:34 am


Originally Posted by Hartmann (Post 10345352)
....yet the news stations feel the need to flipping out about it every time...

TV news is all about selling hype. CNBC seems set the standard for hyperventilation.

ALARISstl Sep 10, 2008 3:26 pm

Latest forecast is now a Cat4 and track adjusted 125m north of Corpus.

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 3:50 pm


Originally Posted by ALARISstl (Post 10346868)
Latest forecast is now a Cat4 and track adjusted 125m north of Corpus.

The Hurricane warning has been extended to Cameron LA, the TS warning to the mouth of the Mississippi.

oldpenny16 Sep 10, 2008 3:51 pm

My head hurts. That is a sure sign of a storm coming. House will soon be full of people needing a place to stay. Storm supposed to come here from the coast. Flooding predicted.

I almost forgot to fill my car's tank up with gas.

Have plenty of food and necessary items but if we run out of drinking water, we will empty the wine cellar.

swei0009 Sep 10, 2008 4:51 pm


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10347008)
Have plenty of food and necessary items but if we run out of drinking water, we will empty the wine cellar.

Oh, darn, not that! Anything but that! :-)

Seriously, good luck.

Redhead Sep 10, 2008 5:28 pm


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10347008)
Have plenty of food and necessary items but if we run out of drinking water, we will empty the wine cellar.

Atta girl! That's the way to sit out a hurricane :D

I'm supposed to be flying thru DFW on Friday afternoon so I hope I can. Yes, selfishly that is what I'm thinking of.

oldpenny16 Sep 10, 2008 5:30 pm

Redhead, I believe you will be OK on Friday. The storm is due to come ashore after dark on Friday and be in North Texas on Sat.

Thanks for the good wishes folks. This one has me really worried.

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 6:17 pm

Ike still tracking NW :confused:

The 800# gorilla goes where he likes.

aucarol Sep 10, 2008 6:20 pm


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10347519)
Redhead, I believe you will be OK on Friday. The storm is due to come ashore after dark on Friday and be in North Texas on Sat.

Thanks for the good wishes folks. This one has me really worried.

It would have me worried also...ya'll be safe!

james318 Sep 10, 2008 6:22 pm


Originally Posted by pierre mclopez (Post 10347707)
Ike still tracking NW :confused:

The 800# gorilla goes where he likes.

He is tracking more NW - NNW than the models are predicting, if you look at today's visable IR loop.

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 6:30 pm


Originally Posted by james318 (Post 10347726)
He is tracking more NW - NNW than the models are predicting, if you look at today's visable IR loop.

Yeah....I'm wondering if the ridge of high pressure north of Ike has split in two. The cone of uncertainty.....or denial? This amateur is concerned about Louisiana.

me4yankees Sep 10, 2008 6:36 pm

Last I saw, the Bermuda high was still in place and causing the track of Ike.

james318 Sep 10, 2008 6:56 pm


Originally Posted by me4yankees (Post 10347798)
Last I saw, the Bermuda high was still in place and causing the track of Ike.

I THINK only a strong Bermuda High usually affects a storm this far west. It's possible, but its more probable that the ridge of high pressure over the US is steering this more.


Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
Yeah....I'm wondering if the ridge of high pressure north of Ike has split in two. The cone of uncertainty.....or denial? This amateur is concerned about Louisiana.

I am not concerned about NoLa. From Galvenston to just east of the border maybe... Certainly more than the models showed before.

Now I wait for SRQ Guy to give me all the reasons I am incorrect. :D

SRQ Guy Sep 10, 2008 7:39 pm


Originally Posted by pierre mclopez (Post 10347767)
Yeah....I'm wondering if the ridge of high pressure north of Ike has split in two. The cone of uncertainty.....or denial? This amateur is concerned about Louisiana.

Ike is traveling exactly along the short term NHC track. There is a weakness that has descended down from the midwest, causing Ike to travel to the NW today. The trough is pulling out, though, which will leave Ike traveling more westward tomorrow.

The NHC is very good with the 3 day cone. This is a Texas threat.

Further, you cannot use IR to reliably track motion. It doesn't translate well. Visible and radar work better.

pierre mclopez Sep 10, 2008 9:22 pm

Model projections continue to reset northward. Galveston now in the cross-hairs of Cat 3-4 right-front quadrant.

pierre mclopez Sep 11, 2008 5:42 am

Crown Weather Services - Tropical Weather Discussion - Sept. 11, 725 am EDT

.....Here is my thinking as of this morning: I agree wholeheartedly with the National Hurricane Center and am thinking that Ike will come ashore somewhere between San Antonio Bay and Galveston early Saturday morning around 5 am Eastern/4 am Central. This area is centered right on Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. I anticipate Ike to make landfall as a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 to 140 mph. The forecast track of Ike is still somewhat uncertain and all interests along the entire Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and its effects will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico....

Maximum surge forecast:
Shoreline of Matagorda Bay: 15 to 20 feet.
Coastal areas from Matagorda to High Island, including the shores of Galveston Bay: 12 to 16 feet

oldpenny16 Sep 11, 2008 6:37 am

It is going to be very bad. There is no time for evacuation.

SRQ Guy Sep 11, 2008 6:39 am


Originally Posted by pierre mclopez (Post 10348546)
Model projections continue to reset northward. Galveston now in the cross-hairs of Cat 3-4 right-front quadrant.

That's normal behavior. The models, once "locked in", tend to creep rightward because they tend to overestimate the forward speed of storms.

oldpenny16 Sep 11, 2008 7:00 am

In a few minutes I'm heading out for my last major grocery shopping trip pre-storm. We have no idea how many people will be staying with us.

Nor how many pets!

It is so hard to come up with good ideas for non-perishable foods!

SRQ Guy Sep 11, 2008 7:03 am


Originally Posted by oldpenny16 (Post 10349843)
It is so hard to come up with good ideas for non-perishable foods!

My hurricane survival kit is chock full of Campbell's Chunky Soup. :D I buy them when they're on sale. It's the perfect survival food: it's safe to eat uncooked if necessary, it's reasonably nutritious, and if you're really pressed a single can can be a small meal for two.

oldpenny16 Sep 11, 2008 7:09 am

Thanks for the idea. I'll buy plenty. Pull tab tops on cans I recall as well.

I'm thinking lots of bread, chips, peanut butter, cheese, and cookies.

We have huge ice chests that stay cold for days.

We have our own water to keep the plumbing going.

Dry food for the pets.

We have a nice propane grill but someone will have to stand in the rain to use it.


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