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-   -   US-CN Direct flights Back to Non-Stop (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/china/2109083-us-cn-direct-flights-back-non-stop.html)

moondog May 1, 2023 5:12 pm


Originally Posted by boat stuck (Post 35216670)
I predict otherwise, that if the US unilaterally institutes a ban on Russia overflights, China will not comply, and US-China flight frequencies will be reduced accordingly to an even lower number, or zero. If the ban happens, there will be fewer, not more US-China direct flights, at a minimum until an armstice or peace treaty is signed in the Russia-Ukraine war.

And I think this conversation has run its course--I'm sure upcoming events will show who's reading of the situation is more accurate.

Touché. Let's be patient.

narvik May 1, 2023 5:13 pm

Both parties are acting like petulant snots.
But I am more on China's side on this particular issue.
Just increase the flights; if Chinese Airlines have an advantage by flying over Russia, how about the US airlines step up their game and compete on something other than price should it come to that.
If the Chinese airlines flights end uo cheaper and shorter, so be it. I'm doubtful it would even make a significant difference: Chinese people would continue to favor Chinese airlines and vice versa.
They are both causing more longterm damage if they keep this up,

moondog May 1, 2023 5:28 pm


Originally Posted by narvik (Post 35216691)
Just increase the flights; if Chinese Airlines have an advantage by flying over Russia, how about the US airlines step up their game and compete on something other than price should it come to that.

They would need to reach back to the 1980s in order to pull that off.

narvik May 1, 2023 11:13 pm


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 35216716)
They would need to reach back to the 1980s in order to pull that off.

So be it.
United is already charging 1970's type pricing on 857/858. 😎

uanj May 3, 2023 3:07 am


Originally Posted by boat stuck (Post 35216580)
Why would China agree to further negotiations after the US unilaterally declares that it won't negotiate on a key issue by passing a law about it? There simply won't be any more negotiations.

If the US passes a ban on some Chinese flights, regardless of how the ban is packaged, there will fewer/no US-China flights. There won't be more flights. This should not be a surprise. To argue otherwise and claim that China will yield, especially given recent experience, borders on nonsensical.

I am not taking sides on this, by the way. But the issue is just as controversial in Europe: Air France Wants Level Playing Field With Chinese Carriers (msn.com). And they are basically requesting the same thing as A4A.

I think it is possible we see several countries come out with the same restriction, and, if so, maybe then we can see some additional flights added.

lsquare May 3, 2023 3:13 am


Originally Posted by uanj (Post 35220277)
I am not taking sides on this, by the way. But the issue is just as controversial in Europe: Air France Wants Level Playing Field With Chinese Carriers (msn.com). And they are basically requesting the same thing as A4A.

I think it is possible we see several countries come out with the same restriction, and, if so, maybe then we can see some additional flights added.

​​​​​​I saw that headline myself. I suspect there will be more complaints in the future. There's no way this can continue because the Chinese airlines have a competitive advantage. I wouldn't be surprised if all Western airlines lobby their governments to take tougher actions to ensure a level playing field.

moondog May 3, 2023 3:27 am

This (not Russia) is the heart of the issue:


The biggest risk for Air France and other European airlines is that passengers “will prefer to choose Chinese airlines for cheaper fare prices” said Alphavalue analyst Yi Zhong.
ETA:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
If my country is able to produce pears for $0.50 per pear, while your (in country) costs are $1 per pear, you are better off by buying all pears from my country.

United can sort of fight back (SFO is its safe haven).

Delta might be able to lock in SEA (after it receives new planes).

American is pretty much stuck with DFW, and it is also lacking in the (long range) airplane department.

As long as we have 2 of 3 that don't want to move the needle, we should not expect forward movement.

boat stuck May 3, 2023 8:13 am


Originally Posted by uanj (Post 35220277)
I think it is possible we see several countries come out with the same restriction, and, if so, maybe then we can see some additional flights added.

This assumption of "more bans/restrictions = more flights" involves a (in my opinion) highly improbable intermediate step:

1. negotiations are deadlocked
2. US/whoever institutes unilateral bans and restrictions
3. China acquiesces to US/whoever's demands after the ban is in place
4. After China gives in, negotiation continue and result in more flights

Step 3 is highly improbable for multiple reasons:
1. China sees this as a NATO-Russia dispute only. Imagine 2 people who shot each other in the foot. And now one of the two is asking a third person to shoot their own feet to ensure a level playing ground. No, the third person is not going to shoot their own feet to appease one of the two with an existing bullet wound.
2. If China gives in, this establishes a precedent that the US can get China to do whatever by instituting unilateral bans and restrictions whenever negotiations fail. China is not going to go along with that. China will just redeploy their assets to less profitable ventures. See trade war, tech war, consulate closings, etc. China has not given in on any of these.

Again, I'm not arguing against the bans--they may be necessary from a fairness perspective. I'm solely arguing against the idea that more restrictions somehow lead to more flights.

boat stuck May 3, 2023 1:45 pm

https://www.regulations.gov/document...2020-0052-0123

New announcement from US DOT. 12 weekly frequencies now allowed from Chinese carriers. No mention of Russia overflight restrictions.

I suppose Delta probably decided that they'd like to keep DTW-PVG going beyond May 17.

mahzor May 4, 2023 8:14 pm

russia overflight restrictions are a problem you brought on yourselves thinking this would be a short and sharp war, and not a grinding battle of attrition that might last years.

the russians would still like to bank your overflight fees since the bering air corridor was one of the most lucrative after the cold war ended

lsquare May 4, 2023 9:51 pm


Originally Posted by mahzor (Post 35225230)
russia overflight restrictions are a problem you brought on yourselves thinking this would be a short and sharp war, and not a grinding battle of attrition that might last years.

the russians would still like to bank your overflight fees since the bering air corridor was one of the most lucrative after the cold war ended

Nope. Russia retaliated because the West banned its airlines from their airspace. None of this would have happened if Putin didn't try to recreate the Russian Empire.

moondog May 5, 2023 2:47 am

Try out JL F with 80k AA miles.

kb1992 May 13, 2023 3:17 pm

Just redeemed 92K miles each for BOS-MUC-HND LH J award.

Booked HO HND-PVG Y tickets at 1700 CNY each.

To fly back to BOS, booked UA TPE-SFO-BOS P fare for $2,500, then some 700 CNY CA PVG-TPE Y ticket.

Not a bad deal for a round-trip BOS to Shanghai mostly in J class for a total of $2500+92K UA miles+2400 CNY each person.

Plus a family mini vacation in Japan.

YVR Cockroach May 14, 2023 9:17 am

Nearly 9 years old but relevant, but perhaps not that accurate


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