Data point from a recent quarantine in Qingdao and after the 7 days in a prefab government quarantine facility (yep, not a hotel) the +3 was in the person's ground floor flat. Because the flat is on the ground floor the family use their own dedicated entrance onto the street, rather than the door off the communal staircase at the back. So the local government minders deposit the person at the ground floor flat, secure the door into the street for the +3, but omit to check that there's a 2nd door round the back onto the staircase, and this is left insecure.

That's a pretty sweet trick, and Shanghai happens to have many places with similar setups. I'm curious about how you managed to: 1. find it, and 2. communicate the details to your minders.

I think not securing the other door was a genuine mistake. The flat in question is owned by the friend who recently went back although for other reasons it's not their registered address, that's elsewhere in the city. I made the posting to make the point that although the policy is tough you can occasionally strike lucky when the minders don't think things through.

Although recently a family was allowed to do all 10 days at home because they had a newborn baby.

I am geniunely concerned China has boxed themselves in. Omicron and the recent variants spreads so easily and China has extremely large numbers of people who have not been exposed to covid. In addition they had vaccines of uncertain effectiveness against these new variants.

It will be years before covid goes away, if ever, so whenever there is an opening to the international world to any degree it is only a matter of time before a breakout occurs. I wish I could see some easy way to manage themselves out of this situation

Covid Zero is can kicking. China is going to have to pay the butcher’s bill sooner or later. It would’ve have helped if they didn’t laugh at US and other western countries earlier, now it’s got a higher pedestal to have to get off from.

Indigenous mRNA will help lower the bill but not eliminate it; wonder how long will that take to finish development and be deployed?

Agreed.

The first big gamble was that domestic vaccines would work. The second big gamble was that covid would be beat outside China and at that point China can open up without risk. And that will not happen for some years so both bets lost.

There was no way there would be any opening of the borders before the recently finished congress. So what is the next inflection point at which point borders could (or could not) be opened?

April 1. Seems arbitrary, I know, but these guys are masters of arbitrary.

What date/event is this?

After 14th NPC has been convened (i.e. after March 2023) says press in HK, if we're going by political calendar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13th_N...e%27s_Congress

But this is as much tea-leaf reading as reading EF seat maps to deduce whether last minute redemption seats and or op-ups.

I need to confess I am hopeless reading national political calendars. I did try to learn. I even read the National Education textbooks (the free ones I can download thru Educity, anyway) and took a HKICPA-arranged trip to SYSU to cram National Education; but I can still better lookup and understand the Australian parliamentary calendar than the Chinese one.

Thanks for the context. I’m going to Taiwan Nov-Dec and realistically the next window I would be able to go to China is Sept-Oct 2023 so I can hibernate until then. Hopefully I can get a tourist visa, or maybe I’ll do something to get a business visa. Lol

China pretty much are the Native Americans at this point regarding Covid. 90%+ of them weren't killed by bloodthirsty Europeans directly, but by their diseases.

Best way to get themselves out of this situation would probably be to push a Omicron-specific booster rapidely, with Singapore-like rules. Get it, or be responsible for yourself (and for your hospital bill) - and then QUICKLY open up before the booster effects become less strong, having prepared all capacity for the (higher) amounts of hospital cases they would receive nevertheless.

Now, with winter approaching (which means weaker immune systems in general imho), they probably have to wait till spring for an opening up, but by preparing NOW with booster vaccines (don't have to be the best ones, just reasonable working ones against Omicron), then start the booster vacinations in January, be finished in February, open up in late February, let covid spread in March-April..

I know this won't happen. But it would be the most sane approach at this point imho.

I AM NOT being a jerk.
But I frequently see across multiple boards and conversation (beyond FT) this notion that there is a magical vax out there (typically mRNA) that will save Chinese citizens from Covid-0

Covid-0 is the problem.
No one (pharma/govt/etc) is even pretending mRNA stops you from getting sick and/or transmission...they simply argue that it saves you from serious illness.
There was a brief moment in 2021 when it seemed mRNA might be doing the job, but that dream has passed.
CDC Director just got the latest and greatest booster specifically for omicron, and poof, she got covid.
Covid-0 is the problem. There is no panacea other than changing Covid-0 policy.

Without a good vaccine you can't open up - hospitals will be hopelessly overwhelmed, as the vaccine still provides good protection from hospitalization and great protection from death, especially for an immunologically "naive" population.

With a good vaccine you can theoretically open up - if you drop Covid-0. Then you only have to overcome the CCP save-face.

That's pretty much what I've said.. not sure if you disagree to my posting (?)

Smiley90...I would argue you are confusing “good vaccine” with what Covid-0 Policy considers a “good vaccine”.
I’d also dispute China is an immunologically naive population...my first bout of covid came out of a trip to china in late 2019/early 2020...given how transmissible it is, and how open China was for most of 2020-2021, it would be hard to believe it hasn’t circulated, no?

I don't disagree, I was just adding the distinction!

More naive than the rest of the world, arguably...

percysmith provided the gist of it; I can only add that I've heard April 1 from sources that have ALWAYS proved reliable during the past.

WRT "the past"; we were locked inside of our houses during April and May.

During the third week of May, they told us that we'd be free to roam on June 1.

The most common reaction was "whatever".

Suffice it to say, the floodgates (completely) opened at midnight on June 1. I lack words to describe the suddenness of this "on/off" transition, so I will simply opine that I was wowed.

April 1 appears to have similar momentum to June 1, but we shall see.

Zero Covid is not a problem for the great and powerful Chairman. He likes it and he’s 100% in control of the ship.

Propaganda works, most of the people in my apartment building are incredibly afraid of Covid and like the policy, even after the 2 month lockdown.

Business is clamoring for a reopening but business was escorted out of the conference last Saturday.

April 1 ain’t happening. There will be years of zero Covid. Tracking and tracing via app is here to stay and although the quarantine may lessen in length by a bit or allow more quarantine from home, it won’t return to 2019 style for at least a few more years.

China has changed. We may not like it or welcome it, but what we want doesn’t really matter.

Hate to keep beating this drum but will as long as the meme of "Chinese vaccines don't work" keeps rearing its head here and elsewhere. Real-world data has shown three doses of Sinovac (the less efficacious of the two inactivated vaccines, mind you) is just as effective as three doses of Pfizer/BioNTech in preventing severe outcomes and death, even among those over 60.

Experts assumed China needed an mRNA COVID vaccine to reopen safely. New data suggest that may not be the case

Experts assumed China needed seven Winnie the Poohs to reopen safely. New data suggest that may not be the case

Is there any recent Shanghai quarantine information, for international travelers? I guess we can't choose the quarantine hotel.

Where are people being sent, do we get to choose from a selection of prices/options or is standardized? How is the food? If the hotel is a chain can we collect points?

I searched and found a recent family was quarantined at the JW Marriott Shanghai - could I be so lucky?

link: JW Marriott shanghai?

Q hotel in Shanghai is random. You could be that lucky, I actually stayed there too.

If you want to choose your hotel, try entering mainland China through Macau. Policy. Hotels

This thread, itself, is honestly a pretty good resource. I would be even better if we had hundreds of data points, but if you focus on recent reports, you'll get a decent idea of what to expect.
Since I live in Xuhui, I'm somewhat guaranteed one of the ~8 quarantine hotels in Xuhui. People who don't have Shanghai addresses can be sent anywhere. This may or may not be a good thing.

With respect to food, you'll get 2-3 meals per day. These are not really my style, but they would prevent you from starving. I advise you to: 1. make a Costco (or similar) run before your trip and stock up accordingly; 2. download ele.me, meituan waimai, sherpas, city super, etc.; 3. include a knife in your checked baggage (this might seem random, but Times Grocery sent me an enormous fruit package along with my first order last year, and I was unable to eat most of it until they smuggled a box cutter to me the following day.)
After you strip away the lounge, brunch, gym/pool, the JW isn't so different from anywhere else.

ETA: If you're not a member of our WeChat group, you should join it before your trip. Much of our conversation parallels this thread in (semi) real time.

The article below is from Nikkei and refers to the same HKU study but comes to a very different conclusion. It was published a few months later than the article you refer to so they could have the benefit of additional hindsight. In case it is not accessible to everyone I quote a few sections (May 8, 2022):

"DALIAN, China/TOKYO -- China's exports of domestically produced COVID-19 vaccines have plunged due to weaker protection against the highly transmissible omicron variant compared with U.S. and European products, hindering the country's vaccine diplomacy.

Sinopharm, Sinovac Biotech and CanSino Biologics exported a total of 6.78 million doses in April, down 97% from the peak in September 2021, according to UNICEF. This includes vaccines in which some production processes, such as bottling, were conducted overseas.

Meanwhile, 55.69 million doses of the vaccine jointly developed by Pfizer and Germany's BioNTech were exported in April, down 71% from September but more than eight times the Chinese figure. Exports by Moderna of the U.S. fell 57% to 16.49 million.

Even if Chinese vaccines are administered for the first or second shot, their use as a third booster shot has fallen sharply, according to U.K. research company Airfinity. The number of times a Chinese vaccine was used as a booster compared with a first shot plummeted 98% in Pakistan, 93% in Indonesia, 92% in Bangladesh and 74% in Brazil. Beijing-based Bridge Consulting notes that Brazil and Indonesia did not renew contracts that expired last year for Chinese vaccines...."

..."The rapid spread of the omicron variant since autumn has been a major factor, as Chinese health officials acknowledge that Chinese vaccines are not as effective against omicron. In a paper published in March by the University of Hong Kong and others, a study on about 4,300 people who were infected after receiving two shots in Hong Kong found that the number of people with severe symptoms who were vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine were more than triple those vaccinated with Pfizer's."

China's vaccine diplomacy spoiled by omicron variant - Nikkei Asia

It is hard to say who is right. My staff in China were very concerned about continuing with the domestic vaccines and boosters and I have consistently told them any vaccine or booster is better than none at all.

Bolded the relevant portion. It doesn't come to a different conclusion. It uses the figures from a two-dose regimen rather than three, so is relying on a different set of data. The efficacy numbers don't match up until a person gets three doses of Sinovac, the numbers are clear on that — which is why boosters must continue to be promoted and distributed among the population, especially the elderly.

This.
If the hotel room is half decent, it doesn't really matter exactly how many amenities it has, since you can't make use of them anyway.

I got released this morning after 10 days (exactly 240 hours after plane landed at PVG) from a pretty nice hotel in JinShan (south of Shanghai).
Took the HSR to Beijing and am now in my apartment for ~3 days with a simple security system on the door that monitors how often and for how long the door gets opened.
The so-called 7+3 in my case is really 10+3 (or 4).

WeChat group? I'm interested in joining, Thanks

me too!

I sent a PM to joesk , but anyone who's interested can scan the following QR code to join before the QR code expires on 11/3. If you miss that deadline, just add me as a WeChat contact (I am moondogsh), and I will put you in the group.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5ccbe5a61c.png

ETA: After you guys (or any others) join the group, I recommend muting notifications because messages come in 24/7 (the volume isn't so intense, though).
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d8b888d534.png

Re: WeChat Groups

BTW, there are amazingly good and helpful WeChat groups that are quite specific to your requirements.
For instance, there's one called "Americans waiting outside China", for anyone stuck in the USA trying to get back to China; and there are a massive amounts of other sub-groups.
There's a mini-app that lists ALL groups that are available, but I can't link that here.

a glimmer of hope
 

China will start to increase international flights

Bloomberg also reporting this. This winter should see double the number of international flights compared to last year.

This is the crap that China puts out to fool foreign businesses. Flights are about 5% of what they were in 2019. It’s a joke.

I read this year's international flight in the summer were 3% of 2019. So maybe winter will be 6-7%. Still low but, hey, you got start somewhere.

The periodic suspension of flights due to inbound passenger positivity is still going to be an issue, though.

I agree because true demand is almost nonexistent.

Thanks! I joined. I am not a China resident but I have (or should I say HAD) been traveling there for over 30 years (until the pandemic).

Please allow me to expand upon this "low demand" theory:
-it's certainly true that we paid through the nose for UA857 and its counterparts; even 9C BKK-PVG was north of $4000
-give us 10,000 seats per week, and people will snatch them up
-the thing is the number of Apple/supplier employees who are forced to come here is finite
-if you can accommodate them, and double seats, fares will drop; we have already seen this in action (e.g. 857 now costs $3,000 instead of $9,000)
-and, of course, we can now game the system a little bit by trying Korea, Taiwan, and Macau transits; none of these seem pleasant, but their all-in (e.g. factor in 3 hotel nights and jumping through hoops) costs are around $2,000

In short, doubling capacity IS a big deal. Increasing it by a factor of 10 (e.g. 2019 levels) isn't in the cards yet, but we don't require this.

On a tangential note, KMG and TAO are dirt cheap both in and out right now. These are tier 1.5 cities that just happen to have more flights than Shanghai (and, of course, Beijing, which has zero inbound at present).

I just bought my ticket to return to Shanghai. From LA, I'll be spending time in Japan and Taiwan before facing quarantine in Shanghai.

From LA to Japan I used miles for J class on UA. Tokyo to Taipei was $360 in Y, and Taipei to PVG was $250 in Y.

Recent TAO trip report
 

Yep, TAO is viable, and the prices have dropped from their previously craxy levels back in August and September, partly driven by student traffic. But you might want to note the experience that I will share below of a recent visit using the JD432 Beijing Capital airlines flight from LHR to TAO. This flight was restarted in August after a 20 month ban and is currently once a week on a Friday operated by a A332. The ticket was bought via CTrip rather than direct as you can usually get semi-sensible customer service with CTrip verses trying to deal with Beijing Capital direct.

The passenger complied with the Chinese Embassy requirement of 2 PCR tests, and a local lab had a special China service providing the two firsts, the first being sent off to Radnox, and the second being processed by themselves. The green code come through on WeChat approx 1 hour after submitting the test results. At the airport, despite having the green code from the Embassy these tests resulted in a dispute with the Beijing Capital Airline staff at checkin who claimed that the tests were not from their approved laboratories. But the wording on their own requirements on their website were ambigious if you read the English version and it implied that you only had to use their approved labs if arriving into UK and transiting for the onward flight to China, rather than for UK residents departing UK for China. The passenger won the argument about the PCR tests and the checkin staff backed down but they did force the 25kg overweight by 2kg check in bag to have 2kg of its contents removed, which were promptly put into hand luggage and nothing more was said. Other instructions from JD were that you had to wear a FFP2 or better mask whilst on board, and a snowman suit was recommended. The outbound flight was approx 30% full. Onboard they only handed out ambient food packs.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...31c8241f43.jpg
View onboard at LHR waiting to leave for TAO
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...7c89f6e48a.jpg
JD432 onboard catering boxes LHR-TAO

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JD432 onboard catering inside boxes LHR-TAO


Upon arrival into TAO Jiadong (new airport) there was a 3 hour wait on the tarmac. The flight had arrived approx 1 hour early but apparently there was a lack of a suitable contingent of snowmen to process the inbound flight. Whilst you can kinda accept the first hour of delay, the next two hours were probably inflicted as a general discouragement.

Once they ahd been allowed off the aircraft, processing in the airport was efficient, more efficient than it had been in the old TAO Luiting airport back in 2020. It appeared that one of the starfish wings of the new airport was segmented off as an international. Having plenty of space in the new terminal obviously helps. The PCR test inflicted here was no longer the scrape your brains out variety which had previously been experienced in late 2020.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d1c37453e8.jpg
Waiting, waiting, waiting onboard upon arrival at TAO

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Arrivals processing at TAO

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Arrivals processing at TAO

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Arrivals processing at TAO

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d2b9d6116b.jpg
Welcome to Qingdao!

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...c2989b0f20.jpg
Baggage reclaim

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d95d805d61.jpg
Local city welcoming committee

The flight passengers were escorted to a bus and then taken to their accomodation. Usually in Qingdao quarantine is performed in some of the local hotels. However flight JD432 was unfortunate.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...abaa1d8e77.jpg
Quarantine centre arrival area

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Quarantine centre arrival area

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Quarantine centre arrival area

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...4af3abd81c.jpg
Inside the facility - a corridor

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...657cb234fa.jpg
Quarantine centre room

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d74f4dd68b.jpg
Quarantine centre room

And that was it for the next 7 days. Comfortable it wasn't, especially the bed which had an especially thin mattress, and many of the co-passengers were complaining about this.
Apparently at least one passenger developed COVID whilst in quarantine was removed from the quarantine centre for 'treatment'.
The TV was a basic IPTV service with some kind of Androidish box behind the screen. You could get some free content and channels but there were many more you could pay for. Wifi was reasonable.
Room rate was RMB120 plus RM80 for food per day. No external food or any deliveries were permitted, no exceptions.
Staff just did the minimum and didn't communicate effectively with the quarantinees to advise them when to expect food, PCR tests, food, PCR, temperature reporting, more PCR, etc.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...2fb0ee90ac.jpg
Example Quarantine meal service

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...10e9658251.jpg
Example Quarantine meal service

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5bc864b011.jpg
Room with a view?

Release from the Quarantine centre was exactly 7 days after the plane's arrival in TAO. Then each passenger had to wait to be collected by the local minders from the respective city district where they were going to move onto for their +3 days of stay at home, and each area city area turned up a varying times into the evening. As I have explained in another posting, the local minders didn't kinda realise that the ground floor flat that was the quarantine location for the passenger I am reporting for had two doors, one fronting the street, and one at the back onto the communal staircase. They put a magnetic lock on the front door but failed to realise there was another door out back....

As it hapened, the passenger needed to extend their stair for an additional week once in China, and this was quick and easy to arrange with CTrip, and actually resulted in a refund as the following week's flight back to London was cheaper. At check-in on the way back, the agent said that whilst the initial flights in August and September had been very busy demand was now reducing and there was going to be around 60 passengers for the flight back to London.

Here are some pics of the TAO airport lounge.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...595ee3acbe.jpg
Qingdao airport international departure lounge

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...26b4f8f0b8.jpg
Qingdao airport international departure lounge

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Qingdao airport international departure lounge

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...f6391c28d7.jpg
Qingdao airport international departure lounge

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Qingdao airport international departure lounge

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Qingdao airport international departure lounge

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Qingdao airport international departure lounge

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...9775a53a37.jpg
Not many international flights that day from Qingdao but good links to Korea due to the large number of Korean expats in Qingdao.

The return flight was not eventful and very quiet onboard. There was a hot meal service on the return back to London. The crew were not wearing snowman suits until an hour before arrival.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...def07c3f96.jpg
A very quiet A332 returning to London

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...98b7022123.jpg
Onboard meal service JD431

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8798bc6208.jpg
Onboard meal service JD431

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...c044f0ad3e.jpg
Snowman suits were worn approaching London

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...c6f51603b0.jpg
Snowman suits were worn approaching London

Although I wasn't the passenger I can ask questions if there are any arising. Hope this is useful to someone out there.

Still crossing my fingers that by January my wife and I will be able to transit into Shanghai via Hong Kong.