I guess masks and keeping distance and less public interactions might mean it’s spreading just that (little) enough that health services can handle it.

omicron isn’t much dangerous and those that get it mostly don’t feel worse than a cold.

and the Chinese vaccines do help to some degree even against it. Those that didn’t want the vaccine.. well.. Singapore showed how you handle it.

get through well with it, China.

it’s been a fun time to be at the Republic of China just now. Hopefully the rest of the country can follow suit..

I wonder if they'll suppress need about any new outbreaks to pretend it was their choice and a successful choice to open back up and everything is fine... Or if they'll amplify news of outbreaks as an "I told you so".

Masks didn't slow the spread that much for HK back in Feb 2022, and mask compliance is a lot lower in China.

This was their choice. They decided on abandoning Zero-Covid with the 7+3 scheme a few months back, and then accelerated it with the 5+3 scheme in November. Don't kid yourself, they could've held out against Omicron if they wanted to, just look at Shanghai back in May. However, they have decided that it was no longer worth the cost.

Latest development in Beijing: they just re-opened some (~30% ?) of the testing stations again, after realizing that many places are still requiring a recent negative test (either max. 24, 48 or 72 old) but hardly anyone was actually able to get a test done!
My dilemma now is: to test or not to test. There's now a considerable danger of testing "positive", as they're still analyzing the test results of 10 people together.
Many people are now reporting that they either know someone directly or second hand that has tested positive. It is definitely spreading FAST now, and far beyond what the 'official' numbers are stating. Not that long ago (two, three weeks ago), no one ever heard of anyone actually testing positive.

When ten swabs per tube became the norm about five months ago, I initially went out of my way to find single swab/tube locations (or limited myself to mass testing, which has remained single swab), but I eventually decided this was irrational on my part because if anyone who lives or works near me tests positive, it's going to impact me, regardless of whether or not our samples are bundled.

They've given up. The protests were the nail in the coffin for zero covid. China will be completely open again before May of next year.

I agree. I just hope the cancellation of inbound quarantine and restoration of flights come sooner than that. But May is a pretty good guess.

Absolutely, and the protests were probably exactly what they were waiting for, as it now allows the narrative to be:

1. "See? We do listen to the will of the people. We kept Covid out as long as it was supported by general sentiment of the people, and now that that sentiment is potentially turning, we are following suit"

...and, once community spread start skyrocketing - and cases, ICU hospitalisations and, inevitably, deaths start spiking:

2. "This is what you guys wanted" -- a message to both anti-Zero Covid proponents, and even to some extent foreign media (although the narrative will of course be very different there)


We went through a very similar process in SG and it was handled similarly - from a narrative perspective - by the authorities here. Same playbook, but very different circumstances obviously.

Yes, the same pattern also played out in Australia and New Zealand. The protests got pretty wild in Australia.

Plus, they might be pressuring the WHO to end the status of the pandemic.

Also, if COVID gets classified as class B or whatever they call it, the number of deaths and cases may no longer be reported in a timely manner.

Here is an unofficial list of December flights (not including HK, Macau, or Taiwan):
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/50eJcgwJ9OQrx1GqB_AawA

I didn't notice any additions, and they appear to have omitted San Francisco entirely (possibly an oversight).

Let's see what happens tomorrow https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...es-2022-12-05/

A Xinhua editorial claimed “The most difficult period has passed, and now the pathogenicity of Omicron is weakening, and our response capability is increasing, which has laid a foundation and provided conditions for continuous optimization and improvement of prevention and control measures.”
source: http://www.news.cn/politics/2022-12/05/c_1129185654.htm

A CCTV story recounted the experiences of six former COVID patients to reassure the public that the virus is mild and treatable.
source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nZF7MqwvKm_tzx_9IMkLug

Between Sunday and Monday, three more China-made, recombinant protein COVID vaccines were approved for emergency use in China.
All three remain in Phase III clinical trials both in China and abroad.
source: https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21042665

It looks like that list only covers Chinese airlines. Only UA flies SFO - China right now.

Oh yeah, now I remember that those guys publish a separate list for non-Chinese airlines.

Again, call me a sceptic or even politically biased from where I'm from or the views I expressed I held in the past (and still hold).
But in terms of breaking Covid Zero I still have to see it to believe it.

I turned around on China containing Covid, initially not believing they have contained the outbreak, until I have received multiple assurances from people I know in addition to reported news that this was happening. This of course then became Covid Zero.

So if the state wants to tell me now that they're reversing on that I need to see the following:
1) Far more flights into and out of China
2) The HK-Mainland border reopened
3) Reports from the ground not just of cities reopening, but towns not becoming locked in
3a) I don't have a lot of contacts with people outside of cities - it will be a bit of hearsay from those that do.

Otherwise, it may be a case of - the country is reopening, but just not here.

Plus, can they really do a city vs country divide? I doubt it. Unless I see 2m die, I don't think they're serious. I don't wish ill on other people - but - this is the butcher's bill that is outstanding.
HK paid a bill of 11K deaths when we lost it - hospital patient rooms filled with corpses - before we are where we are now. And our public health system is presently more effective than any city in Mainland.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, the elimination of the third-country shenanigans (including that multiple lab PCR test ritual) was a BIG deal for inbound; sure you might end up in Qingdao or Xiamen, but that's not the end of the world. And, getting flights out is not difficult or expensive (of course, the addressable market remains constrained though)
Isn't it (e.g. Shekou, Shenzhen Bay) kind of open already?
Don't small-town people at least attempt to post their tails of woe on social media? As long as they stay up for more than ~15 minutes, they presumably go viral.

I am likely not fully understanding what you posted, but what it is that you're not believing, exactly?
That they moved away from "Covid Zero"?


FWIW: Supposedly PEK and PKX are not going to require proof a recent negative test to enter the facility, and some other restrictions are to be lifted today (or soon), with a declassification (or downgrade) of Covid-19 to a less severe category.

Not sure you are aware even from here in HK, how Stockholm that sounds.

Shenzhen Bay still quotaed ,1000/day https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99...0%863%E9%A1%9E ?

Easier to suppress unconnected towns and villages physically and online, than cities like Shanghai.

Not sure if true, but from what I hear it's not the big, bad govt. that's making these small villages/towns/country be closed off, but them themselves.
Whether that comes from an irrational fear of Covid-19; the fact some places had no (or hardly any) lockdowns or cases so far and they want to keep it that way, I have no idea.
But it's said that come CNY, although China as a whole might be pretty much open by then, some smaller, outlying places will put up their own 'borders' and check-points to try and prevent anyone entering with Covid-19.

Indeed. One major reason for the Foxconn unrest in Zhengzhou was the fact that they housed new workers with the old and the new ones didn't like that because they believed the existing workers were infected with Covid.

Local governments seems to be a convenient bogeyman for policies set by central government and not influenced by them.

- they can’t criticise the central government back
- central Govt set their resourcing or lack thereof
- all “costs” (death toll) are blamed on them, general social order is credited to central govt

For much of April and May, the local government in Shanghai effectively was the central government. They have also taken active roles in other spotlight situations.

Shenzhen Bay increase to 2,000/day from tomorrow. Baby steps, baby steps.

Latest rumor swirling on Wechat:

China will remove restrictions on international travel by January 9, and move to the 0+3 system that Hong Kong is using for international arrivals.

To add to this rumor, I heard there might be an intermediate step sometime in December of 3+3.

If the 0+3 rumor pans out, you might want to postpone your return until it kicks in. I'm pretty sure you would dislike even 3 days in a q hotel.

My thoughts exactly. Right now I'm scheduled for 12/30 so will be paying close attention.

I'm in final count-down mode now....10 more days....and I am outta here!

Just let two in the office work from home as of tomorrow, as they were traveling to work by bus.
Really feel terrible for what's about to happen here, and somewhat guilty for leaving everyone behind...

:o :(

You’re excited to leave because they are ending zero Covid? I don’t understand. What do you feel terrible about? The end of lockdowns or the end of testing?

Please stay! Share the burden with your comrades in Shanghai as zero COVID becomes COVID everywhere. :) :)

There is liltle doubt that it will get worse before it gets better, but hopefully it doesn't result in a meltdown and too many lives being lost.

Maybe they've been stuck in China and need to get the bivalent BioNTech or Moderna mRNA booster in their home country.

I don't think there's any bivalent or Omicron specific vaccine available in China yet, but Cansino is pretty close with an Ad5 Omicron vaccine (better than inactivated).

I was always going to go home before Christmas, and yes, excited to be back home for the holidays.
Feel bad for leaving all co-workers behind during these unsettling times! :cool:

My coworkers must be different from yours. They are all fired up for the ending of all the restrictions which they grew incredibly tired of over the past year.

Yeah, I bet there's quite extreme differences in attitudes across China and across regions, even within cities.
We've been pretty isolated where we are, despite still being in Beijing. I am not surprised that attitudes and experiences around here are not the same as in others areas.

Ok, now I’m starting to believe it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Govt underreporting figures and Beijing looking like HK fifth wave.

Apart from "fewer tests ---> fewer positives", how are they underreporting?

We went from daily tests to no tests at all. The reported ~1000 cases/day are actually more like 300'000/day.

Indeed - the phrase "under-reporting" is too loaded with meaning. It's much more the case at the moment they simply DHAFC (the first part of that abbreviation is "don't have a" and the last is "clue" - you can fill in the F as you wish). My wife went out earlier today and none of the local testing stations were operating. More than 10% of my wife's team at work have had a fever over the last few days, but less than half of those have been able to get an antigen-test (those that could all tested positive - not that it really matters either way).

I am honestly surprised you still had any doubts.

I think we are all tired of the madness of the last couple of years, but I share Narvik's foreboding. Despite all the new messaging about the mild nature of the virus (which of course is true - don't misunderstand my point here), the fact is that we are now in this situation at the start of winter and still with far from ideal 3-dose vaccination numbers for the elderly, and this should be seen (and I suspect eventually will) as a failure. I genuinely hope though that I am wrong, and somehow China can pull off this exit from their previous stance without suffering similar results as seen in Hong Kong earlier this year. As an aside a current joke doing the circuits here is that the opinions of Chinese epidemiological experts mutate faster than the virus.

The next couple of months are going to be unpleasant I feel in many regards, though we have the fact that on the other side, sometime early in 2023 we can all look forward to rejoining the globe again.