Good Luck tomorrow. Keep us posted.

Well if the Emperor cannot command back the tide he can confiscate everyones’ tide gauges and phones.

If they're too stupid or stubborn to learn from other people's experiences with the same thing, someone should make sure that all of their nuclear power plants are shut down. Immediately. It's not like Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Japan, etc., have all stopped trying to get to COVID zero for no reason.

They should be trying to get as much Pfizer and Moderna as possible and giving the highest priority to everyone over 80, then everyone over 70, etc.

I wonder how many people have been infected and tested positive at home, and just haven't reported it. My friend says that if someone in a housing compound tests positive, then everyone else in that compound gets locked in for 14 days from the date of the positive test. So now they have not only stigmatized getting infected, but they've also created a significant disincentive for reporting cases. And due to limitations in testing capability, they've apparently started asking people to test at home. So if I had to bet money on it, I'd bet that there are a ton of people who know they tested positive but are deliberately not reporting their status, and when things finally do open up, these cases are going to kickstart the spread again.

It is impossible to avoid the PCR test. Everyone in the whole city was made to take a PCR test yesterday. Thanks to the system of neighborhood committee, basically the most local arm of the CCP, they will know exactly who hasn’t taken the test and come get you and force you to take it. Nobody is able to hide in their apartment to avoid the test. Also every antigen test I’ve had so far has been given to me by the committee and it is expected that everyone in the building immediately post a picture of their results in the wechat group for your building. There is nowhere to hide here.

You know how to make an antigen test return a negative result, right? Don't swab your nose, then post a photo of your "negative" test. As long as they continue to lock neighbors down as a result of one person in an entire compound testing positive, they are providing a significant incentive for people to lie, bribe, or cheat their way to a negative test, even if they are infected.

They should have done so in January, when there was still some time left.

Zero covid did work excellent while there was no vaccination, and people were left to die on the streets in India, or dead bodies kept in freezer trucks in the US.

If you run a system successfully for (almost) two years, you're bound to have issues on switching. Singapore als panicked when Omicron was fresh, but were able to adapt quickly. This was December/January, and this is where China seemingly failed to adapt their strategy.

We'll see how it goes, but it looks quite dark at the moment indeed. February/March should have been used for preparation of "living with covid", not trying to battle it anymore.

They won't officially tolerate a two-tier healthcare system either:

Glad I could be of help with the information. I’m extremely glad I left when I did. I can’t imagine what it would have been like to be locked up in my apartment in Xujiahui during this period.

In stark contrast: I just took RT-PCR tests here in Beijing, and I am still surprised that no one actually checks ID. Anyone could just turn up, and do a test for anyone else, it seems. Might have been a phone login at one point, but not too sure. Seems odd...
Just in case, I took two tests, one for each passport I am using for this trip.

Thats actually true here as well. They only look at the code on your phone and scan it. Conceivably you could register and send the code screenshot to someone else and have them test for you. That would work in a big compound with lots of foreigners. I’m the only foreigner in my building and they all know me and my apartment number. So I wouldn’t be able to pull it off during these lockdown tests but I presumably could have had someone take my tests a few weeks ago when they were mass testing at a place further away from my building.

Now that they've brought in people from outside the city to help, none of those people know anyone. And I would think locals might have a bigger incentive to cheat or lie; foreigners can be expelled for breaking the rules, plus aren't a lot of the foreigners there single? If they're still separating parents and children if the children test positive but the parents do not, a parent whose child has symptoms would have a pretty high motivation to, say, swab nothing and just put the drops in the antigen test kit to show a "negative" test for the kid. Of course, you can't do that if it's an in-person PCR test but you might be able to substitute another kid for the sick one. Obviously there aren't going to be any statistics on how often stuff like this happens but I'd be surprised if it's not happening.

seems fine to me; ease of exiting China is a reasonably important factor in determining when, where, and whether to enter China ;)

Aggravating the situation is the fact that the city government asked people not to hoard food or panic buy because there would always be plenty of supply and they could order online. The people who followed this request are the worst off.

One thing can explain everything: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/commitment-bias
They still haven't figured out that they are in a hole, so they are continuing to dig. I'm going to get a pretty good laugh once they finally realize that they've been off course, because anyone with common sense recognized this months ago.

Got to Guangzhou, now waiting for next flight.
Farewell, China....until we meet again!

Pro-BJ HK businessman Lew Mong-hung a.k.a. "Dream Bear" described on radio yesterday the current approach as 刻舟求劍 (lit: mark boat seek sword) from a guy who dropped his sword into the water. He was looking for his sword after the boat had moved.

LOL, thanks for sharing!
I wonder what the Hong Kong's current approach is (using Chinese proverb) now that I have moved to HK from the PRC.

Um... exactly the same proverb? https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/34141036-post71.html

Twilight Zone:
CAN, T2 at 7pm packed to the brim with no people at all. 😲

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...f65ac8dc67.jpg

I asked my wife about that. She said it's a story about a guy who drops his sword off a boat, marks the spot on the boat where he dropped his sword, then goes back home and thinks he can jump off the boat at the marked spot and look for the sword. I asked how she knows the story and she said it was in her elementary school textbook. Is this some Chinese version of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" or "The Three Little Pigs" that everyone just somehow knows?

There's a collection of chengyu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengyu) and 俗语 (suyu, or adages) that are somewhat commonly used in Chinese. It's more popular among literary articles and older people’s speech, not as much in casual conversation unless you just want to flex your Chinese skills.

If you are learning Chinese as a second language it is a proper pain because knowing each individual character of the phrase is often meaningless unless you know the underlying story (e.g. what does "mark boat seek sword" mean without the story?). In addition modern Chinese has a lot of new slang, made up words, and carryover words from English that mean something completely different than the English term which adds other levels of complexity.

some examples:
躺平 - originally means to lie down; now is similar to the western concept of “antiwork” or “avoiding the rat race”
Ins - everyone else in the world calls Instagram IG but Chinese people call it Ins
PK - stands for “player kill” in a video game, term is not commonly used in English but means “to fight each other 1v1” in Chinese

That is if your district is running self-reported RAT tests (like Hong Kong is on the whole the end of this week) (at least the HKSARG isn't even bothering to try and label the test as mandatory). Harder if your district is running invigilated RAT or PCR tests though.

If my analogy on participating in these tests is akin to discharging a tax obligation (I can't remember if I've used this analogy on FT yet, I've analogised the Hong Kong Fri/Sat/Sun tests as voluntarily reporting and paying taxes), obviously there will be incentives for people to lie on their tax return.

Hang on, don't they tick off whether every resident in your district or city does the tests?

Shows they trust their government up to this point unlike us in Hong Kong, where we gotten pretty used to doing exactly what the government has told us not to do since at least 2019 (i. don't mask up ii. don't get the vaccine and iii. don't raid the supermarket).

Anyone who does trust the government will not do so again after this. This is one of those "fool me once, shame on you" scenarios.

Made it to Auckland!
​​​​​👍🏼

Hope you get a few days there and enjoy the sceneries before returning to the US.

I didn't ask how she came to know it but it was instantly familiar to my wife (Shanghai born & raised.)

https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm

March 25: 4988 cases
March 26: 5765 cases
March 27: 5702 cases
March 28: 6409 cases
March 29: 7051 cases
March 30: 8825 cases
March 31: 8559 cases
April 1: 7386 cases
April 2: 9998 cases
April 3: 13287 cases
April 4: 13267 cases
April 5: 16590 cases
April 6: 20614 cases

Seems the doubling time is getting smaller, and went from ~8 days to ~4 days. Should we make bets on when they'll start seeing > 100k cases/day? If this rate of growth continues, it could happen by the end of April.

20K cases and the rest... and that's the rest of the reported cases, let alone the non-reported ones..

I really hope they find a way to back away from zero Covid. People are gonna start to get real desperate in about a week if they food situation remains the same here.

This. Considering how well China usually does plan ahead, the "sticking to zero covid no matter what" strategy seems.. weird.

Pretty sure they do monitor the situation outside of China, especially in Asian countries, and should have come to conclusions that Omicron can't be contained, and that it's danger isn't that high anymore (especially when booster shots rolled out to elderly)

So yes, for once I can say I don't understand what's going on as the logic that was behind 0-covid is gone, and there isn't any reasonable replacement strategy. Sticking to a non-working covid-0 is just.. bad!

I know this has recently become the "Current China Exit strategy" thread, but to briefly return to the "Entry" theme again:
Looks like they're going to further limit arrivals by reducing the aircraft loads from 75% to only 40%. Expect even higher prices....


"Two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that flights arriving into Shanghai from abroad would have to have a load factor - an airline industry measure of seat occupancy - of just 40% from next Monday till the end of the month.

That compares with a previous load factor cap of 75%...."



https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...es?context=amp

Where will they put these shanghai arrivals? The quarantine rooms should be fully booked based on the number of people I know being told to stay in their own room rather than taken to a quarantine center.

At least they still continue the minute details of every “imported” case each day along with the extra 20k cases in shanghai (which I’m hearing is a massive understatement).

My friend wrote the consulate to see if there were any plans for evacuation charters for American citizens. They told him to find his own way home…a bit of a challenge.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gDa7m6-B0HDmmV8g7iY8VA

This guy flew to China on Jan 1 2022, tested positive, spent 3 months in quarantine hotels, and then flew back to the US on April 1st 2022.

Some quotes (translated):
From the first quarantine place where he is in the same room as other people: There is no medical treatment. We don't have any symptoms, so we just wait for the virus in our body to slowly go away as a natural process.
Near the end: The situation is the same as described in the recent recording on the Internet: the health cloud app says negative. The CDC says you are positive, but they don't give you a notification. They just say that there is a problem and you need to go to a hospital and can't be let out of quarantine.

I think you shouldn't panik as long as you've a stock of food at home. Reality will force a change upon their 0-covid police VERY soon.

If they somehow try keep it going, they'll end up (the party..) on the short end of the stick.

These are under reported numbers. I suspect that Shanghai already has 1 million infections.

One week? What about one month? It's going to be really ugly.

My friends are booked UA 857 on April 15 and 20. Load factor is already 70%.

UA needs to dump someone if 40% is required. This sucks.

The Emperor and his kingdom dig a big hole. They keep digging, because the face of the emperor is the only thing matters.

Let's see if they keep it going for 10 years because they can. They are stubborn.

Send pics so we can live vicariously! But maybe no photos food for now.....

My friend in SH has tested positive on an antigen test...after being in isolation for almost a month. Her housing complex had some confirmed cases a while back, well before Puxi locked down, so nobody has been able to leave the area for that long. Someone in the same building must have somehow gotten infected and left droplets in a common area (but so far, no positive tests, at least not officially). Only time she ever sees people outside of her family was when getting tested (and people were maintaining social distance and it was outdoors) and when taking deliveries, which, due to the short duration of contact and outdoor environment, is almost impossible to get infected. So I suspect it's either someone else on her floor (although they have all tested negative, as of yesterday, but it could be that they just are part of the 30-40% who aren't infectious enough to trigger an antigen test) or someone who was in the elevator or lobby area. We've seen those tests they did where droplets can hang in the air for 30+ minutes if the ventilation is poor. She said she wore an N95 mask around *most* of the time, but not *all* of the time, and she must have let her guard down when she shouldn't have. No symptoms except for a sore throat thus far but as of yesterday it was her first day of symptoms. The good news is that wherever she got it, it probably wasn't a very high initial dose.

The best thing that could ever happen to your friends is that UA cuts them off these flights. You have to be insane to come to China now!! People are fighting over food supply!!! Why would they even consider coming here??!!

I think you are overestimating both the intelligence and compassion of the people running the show here.

Just got an email from UA, their tickets are canceled.

=================================================

As a result of an unanticipated mandate from the Shanghai Government, we had to cancel your reservation XXXXXX for flight 857 from San Francisco to Shanghai on 4/15/2022.

Please contact United at 1-877-826-0254 to review rebooking options or to request a refund. For more information on our cancellation and refund policies, go to united.com/refund. We are sorry for this inconvenience and appreciate your understanding and cooperation during the process.

If you have a comment or complaint about your travel disruption, we suggest raising it with the Chinese government in the U.S. or its consulate office.

================================================== ========

So, UA is telling us to complain to the Chinese government LOL