You're certainly not the only one who has understandably thrown in the towel for the time being.

With any luck, the China forum will return to its former glory at some point this year, though I'm not counting on it.

Thank you for all of your insights and safe travels!

Yeah. you have reached the breaking point ;)

It is no fun to be in China now. Random, and forced quarantines would occur anytime, anywhere.

I haven't got to that point yet, but I am close.

Currently I am booked on UA 857 May 8 SFO-PVG for summer vacation. I am constantly monitoring the situation in China.

You have been a great contributor to this forum. Appreciated. Wish you the best.

As far as when China will return to normal? My guess is: 2035.

I think this is one of the most interesting threads on FT right now.

Like others, I feel that the strict 0-covid strategy has run it's course. It was doable (and the right thing) till and including Delta, and I say that countries like NZ who were strict till Omicron and giving everyone a vaccination chance, but now have been moved to "living with covid" did the right thing.

China's policies right now have probably two problems:
-They've never really moved their mindset from "covid is the devil" away, like for example Singapore did once it became clear Omicron, while not being a joke, is mostly fairly mild even to unvaccinated people, and the health system can take care of those that DO need medical care. Singapore has both measurements up (including masks outside, and boy do they suck.. but it's not strictly enforced and I can tell you that after 9pm and some Tigers, less than half will wear their masks correctly.. in Singapore, of all the cities ;) ) as well as plenty of testing, but manages easily to have 15k cases per day. Open borders to travel, and everything. I think that's the right approach if you don't fully want covid to go "all wild" (like, most western countries have decided) but don't want your economy to keep taking massive hits.

-Due to this ultra-strict 0-covid strategy, they are indeed using lots of ressources for testing / quarantine which could have been used instead to roll out a (well-working, like Moderna/BioNTech) booster shot for everyone asap. I certainly believe the Chinese pharmaceutical companies could have done so themselves (and I believe what moondog says it's true, they literally have ready-to-use factories) with some cooperation. THIS is the gamebreaker imho. China should have everyone getting their booster shots and then change their strategy, rather than building up the slow-but-steady wave that's now hitting them.

In short, a strategy that worked well for 2 years has run it's course, and I wonder if they're changing it at some time. It looks like for the CPC, it would feel like "swallowing it's pride" by doing so, which imho is nonsense, since Covid requires a flexible approach. I do understand they're afraid of long-term issues (Long covid) that aren't entirely documented, and indeed could be a rather nasty thing especially if you can keep getting re-infected with Omicron many times, but at some point, there simply isn't an alternative.

China right now seems to be becoming a giant "experiment", if it's possible to contain Omicron - and it looks more and more like those (like myself) said that it won't be reasonable possible are in the right. Yes, as others said before, it will be possible to even contain Omicron, but doing so would mean extremely strict measurements (not much unlike what Wuhan had to endure) - but for huge areas, and an almost complete travel-ban within China. And still cases will slip, since Omicron is such a tricky virus, great at hiding and spreading.

I'm looking at two/three outcomes right now:

-China eventually agrees that Omicron can't be reasonably stopped, uses full ressources for booster shots, and till done so forces old people into local "quarantine" (the most vulnerable persons) while the health system is managing to handle the cases, and eventually adapts a "living with covid" strategy alike many other Asian countries (Still measurements up, but not all-crazy ones)

-China locks down brutal on everyone left and right yet to no avail. Travel ban domestically, economy suffers a lot, people are getting fed up eventually at the permanent measurements, and after some months, it might get tricky. The whole world is taking hard due to China no longer providing reasonable on-time delivery of goods.

-The hard lockdowns do work somehow, the economy isn't hit so hard, and they're learning enough on how to contain Omicron like the variants up to Delta before. Eventually return to how it's been through most parts of 2020 and 2021, with China gradually getting "disconnected" from the world as everyone else is "living with covid".

I certainly hope for the first outcome. Second one would be bad for everyone across the world (We've seen some pre-lude of that the last two years), and third one would make China and the world understanding each other less, creating a non-covid and a living-with-covid world over time.

So what's your bets?

Good analysis. Option 1 isn't feasible. The data was just released from late 2020 phase 1 trial of ARCoV (domestic mRNA vaccine) and phase 3 is not released/keeps getting postponed. Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00280-9.pdf They can't get enough Moderna/BioNTech even if they wanted to (politics notwithstanding) and distribution will take a long time.

Option 2 is already happening. This is the only tool they can use. Unfortunately the correct thing to do with this strategy is overreact rather than underreact; if you overreact people are unhappy in the short term but it might be successful. If you underreact people are fine in the short term but it runs the risk of the strategy failing completely. Part of the problem is that they keep firing all the local government leads when there is an outbreak, which generally leads to more incompetence over time.

If you read the latest Zhang Wenhong (from 13 March) the TLDR is they do want to move away from Zero Covid but also that they need to control the virus. So basically both sides, or nothing at all. For what it's worth, he does mention that it is becoming less deadly. I don't know if the average person cares or reads these articles.
Full text: ???????_????_???????????????????????????. Relevant part translated below (lol @ daily mail as a source)

Anyway back to bets:

• 70% chance Omicron wins, uncontrollable cases, basically what's happening in HK. A large problem is that this will likely cause domestic political instability
  • 70% chance border starts to open by fall
  • 30% chance politics gets in the way and it's still closed (like the current situation in HK)
• 30% chance lockdowns win. Same outcome as 2020 and 2021 then.

There are inherently logistical limits. You have to get food etc to the people.

Exactly. Easing up would be the sensible approach if they had a vaccinated population. They don't, however.

And the case counts continuing to climb say they either need to clamp down harder (how are they to handle the logistics??) or that Omicron is going to beat them.

Now in China, and I believe things are going to get crazy here in the next few week/months. I would normally book a flight a.s.a.p. and get out. UNFORTUNATELY, I have commitments here that will keep me here for another two/three weeks.
I suspect it will be exactly in this time-period that will make leaving more and more difficult. :rolleyes:

Ironically, it's a deja-vue, as I was in almost the exact same position two years ago, when I was in China at end of January 2020, looking at United and thinking they might stop all flights any day now. Rebooked on Cathay via HKG and left Feb 1.

It took a while to get used to being effectively stuck in Shanghai (not completely, of course), but I've learned to adapt and am honestly pretty happy. That having been said, my prolonged search for food yesterday was a first-time experience for me and compounds (offices too) are getting locked down without notice; this really is happening. Imagine eating dinner at a friend's house and discovering that you're going to be spending two weeks there:D

I remember January 2020. I was in China when everything got locked down.

I flew United PVG-EWR on January 31, shortly before Trump shut down China flights.

This has been perhaps my worst China week in my 15+ years of being here. Company goes wfh but boss overseas made it clear he still expects normal budgeted growth (over 40% growth this year are our targets) with no hiccups despite our factory shutting for a few days. Xi Jinping’s crusade against tech and love for Russia has erased about 20% of my portfolio in a few days time and I’m living in shanghai under the constant threat of lockdown. Already taken 3 tests this week and just waiting for the hammer to drop and snowmen to appear at my compound gates.

I’ve lived here and loved this place for a long time, but man things are changing fast and they aren’t changing for the better. Not really sure what to do but I thought I’d vent to you all.

I know this thread is entitled "Current China Entry policy", but I have a question on EXIT:
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?

I have never been concerned about my ability to leave because there is no direct flight rule. There are many options between China and the US. Europe is a little trickier but certainly not impossible. And if you just want to leave for the sake of leaving, Thailand is nice.

Looking at today's flights it looks like 2/3 of PEK-SHA flights were canceled...

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...76c445ceb8.jpg

I realize that your screenshot only covers part of the day, but counting the CA and ZH flights separately inflates the cancellation percentage.

I eyeballed the whole day and made an estimate taking into account of the same flight with different flight numbers.

In any case, lots of flights canceled, but still possible to fly PEK-SHA.

Got you. It could simply be an overcapacity issue. There's a lot of supply on that route now and I don't know of many people itching to fly it. Still, if I did go up there, I'd definitely fly. My friend that commutes to Beijing weekly told me that the covid police on the train are quite overbearing.

I was more concerned about individual cities locking down; i.e. if Beijing locks down, it might not be that easy to leave.

I didn't think about that variable and it's possible that the Chinese haven't made accommodations for it either. I'm guessing that only about 1 in 100 people has been hit with lockdowns here in Shanghai since the latest madness started last week. Even if that number goes up to 5%, I like the odds. But, if I was locked down the day before my departure, I'd make an appeal for an early release. If that failed (likely), it's rebooking time. I suppose choosing a flight that operates more than once or twice a week might be a decent hedge though.

So, it's starting on March 21st (not 17th, as everyone had predicted):

Flights to Shanghai from abroad to be diverted

More than 100 international flights to Shanghai will be diverted to one of a dozen different domestic airports beginning March 21 to help relieve the city's recent COVID-19 prevention pressure.

The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines – Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.


https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/

Here is the list that came out yesterday (before it was official)

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...0561328a9e.jpg

My friend said for the outbreaks in schools there was one child who went to 23 places over the span of a week, so no possible way to do all the contact tracing, etc.

Has China locked down an entire first-tier city?

No.

People are dying in Korea, from omicron. I haven't read any scientific articles that stated omicron is less deadly. I have read that it was less deadly than delta, but the same deadliness as as the original COVID.

And the mRNA vaccines made by pfizer and moderna aren't very effective against omicron, which leads me to presume the Chinese vaccines are basically useless. So you basically have a whole country of unvaccinated people.

Shenzhen ??3?14??20??????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????

I cannot tell from the English-reporting, but can people in Shenzhen not leave their homes? One article mentioned another city where people couldn't, so presumably in Shenzhen they still can? Just no public transit?

So Shenzhen had 60 new cases on Sunday and thus got locked down but Shanghai had 64 and didn't?

Define "lockdown".

I suppose there are different levels of lockdowns, but I thought narvik was referring to the "CCTV camera on door" and/or "guards sealing off your neighborhood" variety because only this level would prevent him from going to the airport.

Shanghai has used this approach quite sparingly thus far. I think of the men in white as sharp shooters. If someone in your compound tests positive, watch out. Otherwise, things are cool. Another thing about Shanghai that I hinted at yesterday is that the individual districts set and enforce their own rules. When I walked to lunch today, I passed between Xuhui and Jing'an and the contrast was enormous. In the former most restaurants were open for inside dining whereas in the latter only the tiny noodle places dared. And I had to show my health code to enter an outdoor plaza at lunch. My dining experience was still great in spite of this stuff.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...2be689cbdf.jpg

I read some study showing China's vaccines aren't effective preventing infection, but somewhat do reduce hospitalization and death.

So it's better than nothing.

***narvik

Exit plan to US from Beijing if urgent, currently the tentative plan is get out to ICN, DL hub and pick up a DL flight to US. It seems too many variables to travel to PVG.

This gets me pause.

I just hope that it will get better in May when I am scheduled to fly SFO PVG.

I also hope that by then, the Kingdom realizes that 14+7 quarantine is simply stupid, and total waste of resources.

if it gets worse, I'll just fly to SIN and Thailand for vacation.

I like your Korea plan but I would try to buy a single ticket to the US from BJS, probably on KE though I'm not seeing any KE flights until May.

Just got the notice sent to my wechat at 4:30am. My community in Shanghai is now under lockdown. The gates went up in front of the compound right after and we all need to take 2 tests within 48 hours before we are released. I doubt that we will be released then however as I don’t see the spread of Omicron stopping and I’m hunkering in for a long incarceration.

Now I can sit alone in my thoughts as I watch my Chinese tech stocks collapse! Definitely is stepping up the timing of my exit plan.

I would layover in HKG (transit is allowed there) or alternatively fly to any country that Chinese citizens need a visa to. Then plan next steps from there.

Yes, I am already considering HKG, and SIN too.
(PVG is booked, but I somewhat doubt it's going to work...)

I don't endorse the HK because there aren't many flights to the US from there, you sort of need to have your next flight already in place, and if anything goes wrong, you have to wait in the airport or else enter quarantine. In addition to Korea, Singapore and Thailand are okay (need travel insurance for the latter).

Same thing happened to us last night. I'll be home for the next 48 hours (at least).

I would suggest Singapore. There are some really good fares out of SIN back to the US on NH to Tokyo then United.
The UA direct flight to SFO is also reasonable in Y fare qualifying for upgrade.

The challenge is get to SIN.

(bolding mine)

This!
I'm probably going to go to US via NZ, so I looked at SIN. Will likely make a reward res fro m SIN-AKL also, but like you write; I am somewhat doubtful to even get to SIN to cathc that flight.

It seems there are no BJS-SIN flights? And, CX only flies to SIN on Saturday mornings. But, if you get a morning flight to HK, you should definitely be able to catch one of the SQ flights.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...0050537217.png
Actually, it looks like PVG-AKL might be your best bet. And, the good thing about this is you are allowed to stay overnight in Shanghai if there are any issues.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...522e2e2438.png

Cheers for that. Yeah, I didn't think there were ANY international flights mere mortals can take from any BJS airport.
What do you mean with "overnight in Shanghai"? Is that a thing?
I am already booked on a PVG-AKL flight (in J, with miles....for cheap! lol) ----> that is Plan A....what I am after now is Plan B! :)

You shouldn't need to overnight in SH, but my point was you could if things went wrong (e.g. you miss your connection or the connection is canceled). The only reason I mention this is as a contrast to HK, where you'd be stuck inside of the airport.