The Basis (Such as it is) for the War on Liquids
#16
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IIRC, the British so-called liquid bomb plotters were arrested in a rush by the UK because of the US Government prematurely messing up a British intelligence and investigation operation. It wouldn’t be the first or only time, and that too speaks to the plot not having been operationally viable at the time of their arrests.
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IIRC, the British so-called liquid bomb plotters were arrested in a rush by the UK because of the US Government prematurely messing up a British intelligence and investigation operation. It wouldn’t be the first or only time, and that too speaks to the plot not having been operationally viable at the time of their arrests.
Your recall is partially correct. The conspirators in England were arrested sooner than UK security officials desired because US security forces wanted to arrest Rashid Rauf in Pakistan. Rauf helped recruit, plan, coordinate and train the bomb-makers. Arresting him would have resulted in the bombmakers being tipped off and abandoning the plot so all were wrapped up before word of Rauf's arrest could get back to the others in England.
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Knowing something about explosives, having been paid to play with explosives in a professional sense in the past, I'd disagree on the plan being viable. To me, viable means being able to assemble and place the explosives and have them have a reasonable chance of detonation at the desired time.
The plot, as described, does not feature those attributes IMO. They are far (far!) more likely to have blown themselves up prematurely while trying to assemble the final device - basically, a squib detonation that would likely only burn (maybe kill, if they were unlucky (or lucky, depending on perspective)) them and do minimal damage otherwise. In the context of a plane, still potentially dangerous, but no more so than the idiot shoe or undies bombers. If they tried to assemble it airside in the sterile area then no real threat at all.
I would strongly suggest you never go into the field of risk assessment if that's your definition of "viable".
The plot, as described, does not feature those attributes IMO. They are far (far!) more likely to have blown themselves up prematurely while trying to assemble the final device - basically, a squib detonation that would likely only burn (maybe kill, if they were unlucky (or lucky, depending on perspective)) them and do minimal damage otherwise. In the context of a plane, still potentially dangerous, but no more so than the idiot shoe or undies bombers. If they tried to assemble it airside in the sterile area then no real threat at all.
I would strongly suggest you never go into the field of risk assessment if that's your definition of "viable".
Well, lets see: the bombers were arrested while they were actively assembling the bombs, at that point in time they easily could have brought the bottles onto the plane, and they had already detonated such bombs in training. So what else was needed for the plan to be considered viable?
That the explosive material can be volatile and requires careful handling really doesn't mean the plan didn't have a reasonable chance of working. Because it has been demonstrated time and again just how effective it can be:
TATP was used by the 7/7 bombers to murder 52 and injure nearly 800. More recently, it was also used in the Paris 2015 bombings. And in the 2016 Brussels bombing to murder 32 people. And in the 2017 Brussels bombing. And to murder 23 in the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. And it has been used in untold number of incidents around the world, such as to murder 15 in Surabaya, Indonesia.
To be fair, the delivery device and format of the explosive was different than in those attacks, but it is the same explosive and the device and format would have easily passed through security.
Viability <> probability. And reasonable <> highly probable. Viability is commonly defined as "capable of working successfully; feasible." Common synonyms are: workable, practicable, practical, usable, possible, realistic, achievable, attainable, realizable. Which is essentially what I gave as my definition. Your use of an alternative definition does not justify an ad hominem attack.
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Well, lets see: the bombers were arrested while they were actively assembling the bombs, at that point in time they easily could have brought the bottles onto the plane, and they had already detonated such bombs in training. So what else was needed for the plan to be considered viable?
That the explosive material can be volatile and requires careful handling really doesn't mean the plan didn't have a reasonable chance of working. Because it has been demonstrated time and again just how effective it can be:
TATP was used by the 7/7 bombers to murder 52 and injure nearly 800. More recently, it was also used in the Paris 2015 bombings. And in the 2016 Brussels bombing to murder 32 people. And in the 2017 Brussels bombing. And to murder 23 in the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. And it has been used in untold number of incidents around the world, such as to murder 15 in Surabaya, Indonesia.
To be fair, the delivery device and format of the explosive was different than in those attacks, but it is the same explosive and the device and format would have easily passed through security.
Viability <> probability. And reasonable <> highly probable. Viability is commonly defined as "capable of working successfully; feasible." Common synonyms are: workable, practicable, practical, usable, possible, realistic, achievable, attainable, realizable. Which is essentially what I gave as my definition. Your use of an alternative definition does not justify an ad hominem attack.
That the explosive material can be volatile and requires careful handling really doesn't mean the plan didn't have a reasonable chance of working. Because it has been demonstrated time and again just how effective it can be:
TATP was used by the 7/7 bombers to murder 52 and injure nearly 800. More recently, it was also used in the Paris 2015 bombings. And in the 2016 Brussels bombing to murder 32 people. And in the 2017 Brussels bombing. And to murder 23 in the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. And it has been used in untold number of incidents around the world, such as to murder 15 in Surabaya, Indonesia.
To be fair, the delivery device and format of the explosive was different than in those attacks, but it is the same explosive and the device and format would have easily passed through security.
Viability <> probability. And reasonable <> highly probable. Viability is commonly defined as "capable of working successfully; feasible." Common synonyms are: workable, practicable, practical, usable, possible, realistic, achievable, attainable, realizable. Which is essentially what I gave as my definition. Your use of an alternative definition does not justify an ad hominem attack.
I like to think that Kip Hawley had access to all of the best and most current information available, probably more than you either have or are at liberty to post here on this forum. Nevertheless, he said the ban was not needed and security would not be compromised.
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Well, lets see: the bombers were arrested while they were actively assembling the bombs, at that point in time they easily could have brought the bottles onto the plane, and they had already detonated such bombs in training. So what else was needed for the plan to be considered viable?
That the explosive material can be volatile and requires careful handling really doesn't mean the plan didn't have a reasonable chance of working. Because it has been demonstrated time and again just how effective it can be:
TATP was used by the 7/7 bombers to murder 52 and injure nearly 800. More recently, it was also used in the Paris 2015 bombings. And in the 2016 Brussels bombing to murder 32 people. And in the 2017 Brussels bombing. And to murder 23 in the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. And it has been used in untold number of incidents around the world, such as to murder 15 in Surabaya, Indonesia.
To be fair, the delivery device and format of the explosive was different than in those attacks, but it is the same explosive and the device and format would have easily passed through security.
Viability <> probability. And reasonable <> highly probable. Viability is commonly defined as "capable of working successfully; feasible." Common synonyms are: workable, practicable, practical, usable, possible, realistic, achievable, attainable, realizable. Which is essentially what I gave as my definition. Your use of an alternative definition does not justify an ad hominem attack.
That the explosive material can be volatile and requires careful handling really doesn't mean the plan didn't have a reasonable chance of working. Because it has been demonstrated time and again just how effective it can be:
TATP was used by the 7/7 bombers to murder 52 and injure nearly 800. More recently, it was also used in the Paris 2015 bombings. And in the 2016 Brussels bombing to murder 32 people. And in the 2017 Brussels bombing. And to murder 23 in the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. And it has been used in untold number of incidents around the world, such as to murder 15 in Surabaya, Indonesia.
To be fair, the delivery device and format of the explosive was different than in those attacks, but it is the same explosive and the device and format would have easily passed through security.
Viability <> probability. And reasonable <> highly probable. Viability is commonly defined as "capable of working successfully; feasible." Common synonyms are: workable, practicable, practical, usable, possible, realistic, achievable, attainable, realizable. Which is essentially what I gave as my definition. Your use of an alternative definition does not justify an ad hominem attack.
TATP bombs used in the above mentioned actual attacks in Europe within the past dozen years were not liquid bombs of the sort alleged to have been part of the liquid bomb plot aimed at TATL planes that summer.
So, in spite of their own admissions in court that they planned and were working to make the liquid bombs, the physical evidence recovered from their home, and the film and audio evidence of them actually constructing the devices and talking about the devices they are still only "so-called" bomb plotters? At what point would they reach the stage that you would refer to them as "actual" bomb plotters?
Your recall is partially correct. The conspirators in England were arrested sooner than UK security officials desired because US security forces wanted to arrest Rashid Rauf in Pakistan. Rauf helped recruit, plan, coordinate and train the bomb-makers. Arresting him would have resulted in the bombmakers being tipped off and abandoning the plot so all were wrapped up before word of Rauf's arrest could get back to the others in England.
Your recall is partially correct. The conspirators in England were arrested sooner than UK security officials desired because US security forces wanted to arrest Rashid Rauf in Pakistan. Rauf helped recruit, plan, coordinate and train the bomb-makers. Arresting him would have resulted in the bombmakers being tipped off and abandoning the plot so all were wrapped up before word of Rauf's arrest could get back to the others in England.
The so-called liquid bomb plotters were not liquid bomb plotters, just bomb plotters who couldn’t make the solid bomb they wanted to use from utilizing hydrogen peroxide to get to TATP for use in a non-liquid bomb.

Give it to DHS/TSA, that a de facto lapchild infant ban on TATL flights that arose from the “liquid bomb” plot soon ended up being just a “war on liquids”.

TATP bombs can be interdicted at screening checkpoints without the TSA’s war on water and other legal liquids/gels/aerosols allowed onto planes when transported in the Kippie bag way, and Kip Hawley knows that and may even have some skin in the game courtesy of the revolving door so lucrative for government employees of some sort or another.
Last edited by TWA884; Nov 28, 2018 at 4:22 pm Reason: Merge consecutive posts by the same member
#21


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I dont. I havent read his book but my understanding is that he did not say the initial ban was not needed or that the continuing limitation on particular quantities of liquids was never needed but rather that technologies and procedures have been put into place that allow for the removal of the limitations. Its a fine but important distinction.
It's not just laziness that prevents desperately needed reforms. There is tremendous resistance by almost all the players in the security establishment to relaxing any restrictions - not just because they have a financial interest but also because it is the mindset. These guys live almost their entire lives never being completely relaxed and in a white zone. And it has been ever thus. Unfortunately, while we used to keep them at bay we have allowed 9/11 and subsequent events to push the pendulum to the other side; OBL continues winning....
It's not just laziness that prevents desperately needed reforms. There is tremendous resistance by almost all the players in the security establishment to relaxing any restrictions - not just because they have a financial interest but also because it is the mindset. These guys live almost their entire lives never being completely relaxed and in a white zone. And it has been ever thus. Unfortunately, while we used to keep them at bay we have allowed 9/11 and subsequent events to push the pendulum to the other side; OBL continues winning....
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I dont. I havent read his book but my understanding is that he did not say the initial ban was not needed or that the continuing limitation on particular quantities of liquids was never needed but rather that technologies and procedures have been put into place that allow for the removal of the limitations. Its a fine but important distinction.
It's not just laziness that prevents desperately needed reforms. There is tremendous resistance by almost all the players in the security establishment to relaxing any restrictions - not just because they have a financial interest but also because it is the mindset. These guys live almost their entire lives never being completely relaxed and in a white zone. And it has been ever thus. Unfortunately, while we used to keep them at bay we have allowed 9/11 and subsequent events to push the pendulum to the other side; OBL continues winning....
It's not just laziness that prevents desperately needed reforms. There is tremendous resistance by almost all the players in the security establishment to relaxing any restrictions - not just because they have a financial interest but also because it is the mindset. These guys live almost their entire lives never being completely relaxed and in a white zone. And it has been ever thus. Unfortunately, while we used to keep them at bay we have allowed 9/11 and subsequent events to push the pendulum to the other side; OBL continues winning....
DHS/TSA is like an onion with growing layers of “security”. The eye-watering requests for more money, more equipment, more people, and more power over the public just grow over time. Giving up the “war on liquids” is not without its consequences, even as its elimination as is wouldn’t necessarily undermine flight security.
#23


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The fact is that the arrested weren’t actively assembling any bombs for the TATL flights that were said to be the targets. They weren’t anywhere close to getting a liquid bomb that they could smuggle and place onto the TATL flights that were the governmentally-mentioned targets of those nutcases arrested and convicted for a variety of things related to that plot of “murder/mayhem on an unprecedented scale” as was alleged at the time by US and UK officials.
TATP bombs used in the above mentioned actual attacks in Europe within the past dozen years were not liquid bombs of the sort alleged to have been part of the liquid bomb plot aimed at TATL planes that summer.
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So are you saying the video of Ali and Husain assembling the devices was what, a giant conspiracy against them and faked - like the lunar landings were faked? And all of the bomb making materials (the liters of peroxide and chemicals for concentrating the peroxide) found in the house and at the cache were planted by the government? And yet the defendants not only didn't deny the plot but all admitted to the bomb-making charges? Come on, even at trial the defense did not deny the video evidence and all admitted to the plot (although they did deny specifically targeting aircraft which the gubmint could not substantiate because the US prematurely had Rauf arrested). Even the resident of 1600 Penn wouldn't be so bold as to assert those alternative facts.

”Alternative facts” aren’t facts.
#25

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After Pan Am 103, we did not ban electronic radio/cassette players
After the successful and lethal test (liquid-based) bomb in the Bojinka plot, we did not ban Casio watches or toiletry bags let alone water.
I know some if not all of these bans were considered by security forces, but common sense prevailed, and no permanent bans were introduced. Those threat vectors remain viable, but the perpetrators were dealt with (somewhat) and society moved on.
Once TSA was created, common sense went out the door and every new threat "required" new, permanent, and traveler visible (to maintain the security theater) restrictions. (shoe carnival, war on water, NoS, genital grabs)
The first (and only that I know of) hint that sanity may have returned is that DHS Secretary John Kelly failed in his very strong 2017 drive to institute a total and probably permanent ban on laptop computers and other electronic devices in the cabin. I give major credit to the EU for standing up and (rightly) insisting that burning LiIon batteries in the cargo hold were a bigger threat than modified laptops which should be able to be detected with x-ray screening. People would have died within months if these things had been forced into the cargo hold. The only other option was a cabin and cargo ban, which would have essentially prohibited air transport of electronic devices that are part of our daily lives. That is absurd. I think even the idiots running DHS/TSA realized that such a thing might finally turn the public against them enough to threaten the continued existence/growth of their bureaucracy .
Maybe in 2006 there should have been a liquid ban for a few weeks, or even a few months, while they rooted out fellow travelers of the plotters. But 12 years and counting is absurd.
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Any terrorists have moved far beyond liquid explosives while TSA is still stuck on focusing on them and shoe bombs.
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Richard Reid may have thought he was going to blow up an airplane, but whoever set him up didn't expect him to. The same with the liquid bombers. If an airplane disappears over the ocean it can take years to figure out exactly why, if at all, which isn't terribly useful for terrorists. If some inept bomber gets caught doing something with a shoe, a small bottle of liquid, or something in his underwear, no matter how unlikely the chances of destroying a plane, the countries under "attack" inflict damage on themselves in the form of things like liquid bans and shoe removal, restrictions on freedoms, and increased use of resources to implement the bans/searches for fictional dangers. Some cheap shoes with a fuse sticking out have cost the US many billions of dollars.
It's essentially terrorism theater designed to set off our security theater, and it's been very successful.
I used to bring at least one 2 L bottle of seltzer on any transcon flight, and now I'm limited to a few cups, or maybe a few cans that the FAs hand out. And I have yet to see a US airport that sells seltzer airside - it's still water only. I want my seltzer back.
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They are far (far!) more likely to have blown themselves up prematurely while trying to assemble the final device - basically, a squib detonation that would likely only burn (maybe kill, if they were unlucky (or lucky, depending on perspective)) them and do minimal damage otherwise. In the context of a plane, still potentially dangerous, but no more so than the idiot shoe or undies bombers. If they tried to assemble it airside in the sterile area then no real threat at all.
Their plot was closer to "viable" than it was theoretical. While not a fan of the liquid restrictions I have zero sympathy for those who would put lives at risk so they can enjoy their favorite seltzer. Boo-hoo.
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Their plan was for suicide bombers to assemble the devices in flight so it wouldn't have mattered if they'd blown themselves up "prematurely" because they were already in the air. Even if most had a "squib" explosion there were according to the investigation multiple flights targeted and all it takes is one.
Their plot was closer to "viable" than it was theoretical. While not a fan of the liquid restrictions I have zero sympathy for those who would put lives at risk so they can enjoy their favorite seltzer. Boo-hoo.
Their plot was closer to "viable" than it was theoretical. While not a fan of the liquid restrictions I have zero sympathy for those who would put lives at risk so they can enjoy their favorite seltzer. Boo-hoo.
Keep in mind that the “war on water” could have been started (in the manner it ended up being started) by governments at airports near and far before any of the plotters’ arrests, but it wasn’t. Now go ask why it wasn’t launched and sustained until after the UK arrests in 2006.

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Their plot wasn’t anywhere close to being a viable operation to bring down multiple TATL planes to unleash murder/mayhem on an unprecedented scale as claimed by the involved governments that pushed for the “war on water” in response to the arrests of the plotters.
Keep in mind that the “war on water” could have been started (in the manner it ended up being started) by governments at airports near and far before any of the plotters’ arrests, but it wasn’t. Now go ask why it wasn’t launched and sustained until after the UK arrests in 2006.


