those explosive detectors
#31




Join Date: Dec 2010
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#32


Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: WAS
Programs: enjoyed being warm spit for a few years on CO/UA but now nothing :(
Posts: 2,819
#33


Join Date: Nov 2007
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Programs: enjoyed being warm spit for a few years on CO/UA but now nothing :(
Posts: 2,819
Yes, but if one flight was blown up per day, it wouldn't be.
Again, you're comparing actual flying to actual driving, not actual driving versus a "bomb a day" flying scenario. If we assume 1.3 people in the average car, you're at 1.17 deaths per 130m "passenger-miles" driven, or 1.52 deaths per 100m passenger-miles.
With 87k flights per day, and assuming 750 miles per average flight, you'd be at about 65 million plane miles per day. Assuming 100 people on the average flight, that's 650m passenger-miles flown. If we're in a world with one plane bombing per day, then, again assuming 100 pax per plane on average, you're looking at 100 fatalities per 650m passenger miles flown, or about 15 fatalities per 100m passenger-miles, that's 10x the rate for cars.
Again, you're comparing actual flying to actual driving, not actual driving versus a "bomb a day" flying scenario. If we assume 1.3 people in the average car, you're at 1.17 deaths per 130m "passenger-miles" driven, or 1.52 deaths per 100m passenger-miles.
With 87k flights per day, and assuming 750 miles per average flight, you'd be at about 65 million plane miles per day. Assuming 100 people on the average flight, that's 650m passenger-miles flown. If we're in a world with one plane bombing per day, then, again assuming 100 pax per plane on average, you're looking at 100 fatalities per 650m passenger miles flown, or about 15 fatalities per 100m passenger-miles, that's 10x the rate for cars.
without the time nor inclination to really delve into it, 100 deaths a day in the US from aviation (~36,500 annually) that would still be less than the number automobile deaths a day in the US (+40k in 2017). hmm, maybe we need tsa in our automobiles....
#34
FlyerTalk Evangelist




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Not a bad idea. Better for TSA to suffer the casualties than the general population.
#35




Join Date: Jul 2006
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Oh, don't get me wrong, I would certainly be in favor of reducing spending on aviation security to (at most) 9/10/01 levels, and reallocating those funds toward improvements in traffic safety. Much better bang for the buck.
#36




Join Date: Jul 2006
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Nah, because we all know people are irrational, and don't measure risk well, underestimating risks they think they can control (i.e. driving) and overestimating risks that are out of their control (i.e. flying).
#37
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Aviation security funds would be better spent on updating air traffic control systems. That would improve passenger safety.
#38




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There are good reasons to update ATC to improve efficiency, but given how amazingly safe commercial aviation already is, it's hard to see how ATC improvements could be justified on a safety basis.
#40
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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More air traffic, closer spacing, and several other factors are at play. That and the FAA is using very outdated technology in its control centers. Do a bit of research if you doubt me.
#41




Join Date: Jul 2006
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ATC investments COULD allow for more traffic, closer spacing, and more direct routings without a loss of safety, but that's an operational/efficiency benefit, not a safety benefit.
#42
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With fatality rates already essentially zero (and actually zero last year), how much safer could you make air travel?
ATC investments COULD allow for more traffic, closer spacing, and more direct routings without a loss of safety, but that's an operational/efficiency benefit, not a safety benefit.
ATC investments COULD allow for more traffic, closer spacing, and more direct routings without a loss of safety, but that's an operational/efficiency benefit, not a safety benefit.
Last edited by Boggie Dog; May 24, 2018 at 3:14 pm
#43




Join Date: Jul 2006
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Don't be silly, and don't put words in my mouth. There have been a total of 14 deaths from mid-air collisions in the US in the last thirty years, none on board a commercial airplane. Unless you can show that we've just been colossally lucky, then the argument that we need to improve ATC for safety reasons doesn't hold water. That doesn't mean we shouldn't improve ATC, but for reasons of efficiency and allowing for increased air traffic, not because there's any evidence the current system is unsafe.
#44
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Don't be silly, and don't put words in my mouth. There have been a total of 14 deaths from mid-air collisions in the US in the last thirty years, none on board a commercial airplane. Unless you can show that we've just been colossally lucky, then the argument that we need to improve ATC for safety reasons doesn't hold water. That doesn't mean we shouldn't improve ATC, but for reasons of efficiency and allowing for increased air traffic, not because there's any evidence the current system is unsafe.
Like I said up thread, do some independent reading and honestly take a look at where ATC is and what issues they face. It's not pretty!
Last edited by Boggie Dog; May 25, 2018 at 9:51 am Reason: correction
#45




Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Frensham, Lincolnshire
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Posts: 6,759
It's probably alarming on your spine. TSA don't see spines very often and they expect the traveling public to be equally spineless as they are.


