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Old Jul 29, 2017 | 11:28 am
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by bart simpson
Wow, is the business really that bad? I thought CX is not doing well, but not doing bad, apart from the loss from fuel hedging.
I guess part of the problem lies with pilot training... Those 35K may be used to replace some of the 77W... Where pilot needs to be retrained due to aircraft type change....

And seems CX is having problem with the pilots on training... Just guessing
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Old Jul 30, 2017 | 7:56 am
  #32  
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The 30 per cent cut is misguided. Suggesting such a large cut means cutting flights and routes. Giving up slots it will give away to its arch rival and not get back for several years, making profitability harder and weakening the airline's value.

We know that 48 long-haul 77Ws will be refitted for 10 abreast confirming 5 77Ws will exit - at least the earliest ones. That equates a 10 per cent roughly.

Originally Posted by Aus106080
Can you say more about the 30% cut?
Even in 2009, CX and KA only cut around 10% capacity.
I cannot imagine CX will actually give up the existing market to Hong Kong airlines or other competitors and also the slots for Hong Kong airport.
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Old Jul 30, 2017 | 8:26 am
  #33  
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Originally Posted by SinoBritAsia
The 30 per cent cut is misguided. Suggesting such a large cut means cutting flights and routes. Giving up slots it will give away to its arch rival and not get back for several years, making profitability harder and weakening the airline's value.

We know that 48 long-haul 77Ws will be refitted for 10 abreast confirming 5 77Ws will exit - at least the earliest ones. That equates a 10 per cent roughly.
Yea this is more in line with my (admittedly) theoretical knowledge. Admittedly I have no scuttlebutt here, as it's against the law in my industry. But just sitting down with a few subscriptions, pen and paper, as well as thinking back to a few conversations I've had, at least I feel comfortable saying it would be devastating to Boeing (their always-rosy propaganda notwithstanding, until they drop bombshells on you at the last minute...every time) if CX somehow dumped 15 77Ws on the secondary market in the next few years. It would essentially end the 777 classic program. Everyone would notice if EK or CX started unloading 77Ws. And it's a weak secondary market as it stands.

Maortega15 almost always has solid insight so it's hard to reconcile. I found details for some of the finance leases but not all, so I can't be sure. But they could always try to sell some birds, depressed value as they are. I wouldn't be totally surprised if CX is reviewing everything these days.

Still, you can pick up a brand new 77W on the cheap right now with zero wait, Boeing is desperate just to keep the line in order until the 777X starts firing. The buyer of second-hand 10 year old 77W birds now would not be offering a whole lot. Not to mention the whole segment of very large aircraft is under huge stress right now.
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Old Jul 30, 2017 | 9:08 am
  #34  
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Also, the CX guy who against the odds committed to 50 Boeing 77Ws more than a decade ago as a minimum is now the joint-number two at the airline: Greg Hughes. I reckon he would push back hard if such a plan less of a rumour and more of an actual plan.

Originally Posted by QRC3288
Yea this is more in line with my (admittedly) theoretical knowledge. Admittedly I have no scuttlebutt here, as it's against the law in my industry. But just sitting down with a few subscriptions, pen and paper, as well as thinking back to a few conversations I've had, at least I feel comfortable saying it would be devastating to Boeing (their always-rosy propaganda notwithstanding, until they drop bombshells on you at the last minute...every time) if CX somehow dumped 15 77Ws on the secondary market in the next few years. It would essentially end the 777 classic program. Everyone would notice if EK or CX started unloading 77Ws. And it's a weak secondary market as it stands.

Maortega15 almost always has solid insight so it's hard to reconcile. I found details for some of the finance leases but not all, so I can't be sure. But they could always try to sell some birds, depressed value as they are. I wouldn't be totally surprised if CX is reviewing everything these days.

Still, you can pick up a brand new 77W on the cheap right now with zero wait, Boeing is desperate just to keep the line in order until the 777X starts firing. The buyer of second-hand 10 year old 77W birds now would not be offering a whole lot. Not to mention the whole segment of very large aircraft is under huge stress right now.
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Old Jul 30, 2017 | 10:30 am
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by SinoBritAsia
We know that 48 long-haul 77Ws will be refitted for 10 abreast confirming 5 77Ws will exit - at least the earliest ones. That equates a 10 per cent roughly.
Actually is refitting the 5 77Ws (and renewing the leases) cheaper or buying EK's second hand 773 (and do a C check probably and then refit it) cheaper?
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Old Jul 30, 2017 | 10:44 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by sscywong
Actually is refitting the 5 77Ws (and renewing the leases) cheaper or buying EK's second hand 773 (and do a C check probably and then refit it) cheaper?
Maybe when you can buy outright (did they buy direct from EK?) rather than pay the monthly leases and whatnot. Sweating that remaining asset for regional runs doesn't seem too bad.

Not sure what the answer is.
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Old Jul 31, 2017 | 1:04 am
  #37  
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Originally Posted by SinoBritAsia
The 30 per cent cut is misguided. Suggesting such a large cut means cutting flights and routes. Giving up slots it will give away to its arch rival and not get back for several years, making profitability harder and weakening the airline's value.

We know that 48 long-haul 77Ws will be refitted for 10 abreast confirming 5 77Ws will exit - at least the earliest ones. That equates a 10 per cent roughly.
Will it mean the CX will tranfer more planes to KA?
CX can consider transferring all A333 (regional setting)to KA
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