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Old Jul 26, 2017 | 7:44 pm
  #16  
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
CX has 5 772s (all regional config, seat 335), 12 77Zs (all regional config, seat 398). Replace with with 15 A320s that seat 158 and you've eliminated over 4,000 seats, and you actually can INCREASE frequency if you'd like on some routes because you have 15 planes now doing the flying instead of 12. .
Problem with increasing frequency is HKIA only has 2 runways...
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Old Jul 26, 2017 | 8:29 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
You could replace some 33Ps, 772s and 77Zs (the regional config widebodies) with narrowbodies and still have good (or even BETTER frequency) and likely save some money. (Could also outsurce a lot more to KA and do the same thing).

I mean, really, you don't NEED a 777 or A330 to fly HKG-BKK/TPE/NRT/SIN/PEK/ICN, and those regional planes are already in a config where J isn't so hot, so replacing it with an A320 configured 8/150 is not really a big deal.

That and using your longhaul planes less on those kinds of 500-2000 mile routes ala the US3 and European airlines, and replacing with narrowbodies, that could easily take out a lot of capacity without decimating the longhaul network.
HKG has 3 of the top 5 busiest international trunk routes on the planet. 9 of the top 10 domestic routes are within APAC. It's a very different market to Europe/US. There is seldom any problem filling widebodies to most regional destinations.

HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.

It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 12:06 am
  #18  
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Originally Posted by 1010101
HKG has 3 of the top 5 busiest international trunk routes on the planet. 9 of the top 10 domestic routes are within APAC. It's a very different market to Europe/US. There is seldom any problem filling widebodies to most regional destinations.

HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.

It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
Succinct and comprehensive response. The only thing I would add is the cargo capacity that CX values (often more than pax). Regional flights are having such high loads across the network, why reduce capacity at all? The bulk of 'trash yields' comes from long haul J class of which CX has actually lost a large part of the plot. Doesn't help filling up by lots and lots of 13000 RMB ex-China fares.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 1:06 am
  #19  
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Originally Posted by maortega15
I rather not get into detail or specifics, but they are reducing fleet capacity by 30%.
Can you say more about the 30% cut?
Even in 2009, CX and KA only cut around 10% capacity.
I cannot imagine CX will actually give up the existing market to Hong Kong airlines or other competitors and also the slots for Hong Kong airport.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 1:10 am
  #20  
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Originally Posted by 1010101
HKG has 3 of the top 5 busiest international trunk routes on the planet. 9 of the top 10 domestic routes are within APAC. It's a very different market to Europe/US. There is seldom any problem filling widebodies to most regional destinations.

HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.

It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
HK airlines is now expanding the longhaul route.
They have already launched YVR, AKL and OOL and LAX will coming by the end of this year.

If CX is cutting the capacity, it is just encouraged HK airlines to grow further.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 1:41 am
  #21  
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Originally Posted by Aus106080
HK airlines is now expanding the longhaul route.
They have already launched YVR, AKL and OOL and LAX will coming by the end of this year.

If CX is cutting the capacity, it is just encouraged HK airlines to grow further.
HNA is now (technically) fund restricted, but china is rooted into CX thru Air china.
Saucy...

Anyways, CX's losses is from the top level directors/officers. They do run an operating profit. Cutting capacity hardly help much.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 2:51 am
  #22  
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There are 27 A350s to come in the next 4 years. How many slots can CX get in that period? 4 maybe (say 2 Europe, 2 NA). How many long haul planes do they have? About 70. 30% of 70 is 21. 27 to come, 21 to go and 4 new routes. Rough and ready calculation but seems reasonable to me.

Just what constitutes the ones which are going? To muddy the waters I suspect that some will be A330s ex Oz. Its already been said 5 leased ones to go. Also some 330s in KA all true antiques (LKJ and HLK will be 25 this year!) Then I guess that initially A35Ks may replace some 77Gs. AMS, MAD, YVR, for example. ZUR and SFO might go A35K. Then I also suspect that SYD and MEL may switch. Remember that these rotate in less than 24 hours. Not long on the ground. High utilization. Plenty of fuel saving and an attractive beastie for a competitive route. Then maybe 77Gs replace some more 77Hs. From what I have read the only places where F will remain for sure are NYC, LHR and LAX. After that we will be lucky to keep them for FRA, CDG, and ??? in NA. And I forgot, 5 772s. So disposal of old craft spread around the fleet.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 3:05 am
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Originally Posted by TomYoung
There are 27 A350s to come in the next 4 years. How many slots can CX get in that period? 4 maybe (say 2 Europe, 2 NA). How many long haul planes do they have? About 70. 30% of 70 is 21. 27 to come, 21 to go and 4 new routes. Rough and ready calculation but seems reasonable to me.

Just what constitutes the ones which are going? To muddy the waters I suspect that some will be A330s ex Oz. Its already been said 5 leased ones to go. Also some 330s in KA all true antiques (LKJ and HLK will be 25 this year!) Then I guess that initially A35Ks may replace some 77Gs. AMS, MAD, YVR, for example. ZUR and SFO might go A35K. Then I also suspect that SYD and MEL may switch. Remember that these rotate in less than 24 hours. Not long on the ground. High utilization. Plenty of fuel saving and an attractive beastie for a competitive route. Then maybe 77Gs replace some more 77Hs. From what I have read the only places where F will remain for sure are NYC, LHR and LAX. After that we will be lucky to keep them for FRA, CDG, and ??? in NA. And I forgot, 5 772s. So disposal of old craft spread around the fleet.
50 more slots per day will be provided in these 3 years and HKIA is now looking for other ways to increase further.

CX and KA share about 45% of slot and CX/KA should be able to get at least 15 extra slots.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 3:13 am
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Can CX please re brand to Hong Kong Airways or Air China before it kills itself.

the words "Cathay Pacific" should not be associated with such terrible management that seems to involve

donating market share to competitors
reducing capacity while the market is booming

SQ/MI will soon overtake KA with number of mainland destinations served. There are 10 cities that those 777's could serve that SQ/EK/KE comfortably serve.

EVA might have a larger network than CX by 2020....
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 3:50 am
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Originally Posted by Kachjc
Can CX please re brand to Hong Kong Airways or Air China before it kills itself.

the words "Cathay Pacific" should not be associated with such terrible management that seems to involve

donating market share to competitors
reducing capacity while the market is booming

SQ/MI will soon overtake KA with number of mainland destinations served. There are 10 cities that those 777's could serve that SQ/EK/KE comfortably serve.

EVA might have a larger network than CX by 2020....
Therefore, i do not think CX will shrink its network.
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Old Jul 27, 2017 | 4:59 pm
  #26  
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The problem with narrowbodies at HKG has to do with slots and cost of the main gates. It's just not practical for CX to have a massive fleet of narrowbodies, at least until there are more gates or a new runway.

The airport charges quite a bit more per hour for the main gate. Not all gates and services cost the same, and the gates CX use are in the highest category.

And there aren't too many more slots to go around unfortunately, either. It's not like CX or KA can increase that much more frequencies even if they want. If they want to keep launching new destinations, they can't really say double the number of TPE flights by adding a bunch of A320s or B737s. They're using all their additional slots on new routes.
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Old Jul 28, 2017 | 8:44 pm
  #27  
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Speaking of slots, routes, gates: when is the HKIA expansion finish? I know they're building a new runway with a brand new Terminal.
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Old Jul 28, 2017 | 10:03 pm
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Cathay Dragon 666
Speaking of slots, routes, gates: when is the HKIA expansion finish? I know they're building a new runway with a brand new Terminal.
That would depend if they use a reputable contractor or an infamous chinese contractor.
if the latter then assume 2 years delay.
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Old Jul 29, 2017 | 5:33 am
  #29  
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And now there is talk w/in the community that CX will defer a number of A350-1000s

No, I don't make stuff up. You all know I'm reputable on here.
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Old Jul 29, 2017 | 7:00 am
  #30  
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Originally Posted by maortega15
And now there is talk w/in the community that CX will defer a number of A350-1000s

No, I don't make stuff up. You all know I'm reputable on here.
Wow, is the business really that bad? I thought CX is not doing well, but not doing bad, apart from the loss from fuel hedging.
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