CX fleet change/reduction speculation
#16




Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: MNL
Programs: CX MPO DM, Le Club Accor Platinum, World of Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 2,287
CX has 5 772s (all regional config, seat 335), 12 77Zs (all regional config, seat 398). Replace with with 15 A320s that seat 158 and you've eliminated over 4,000 seats, and you actually can INCREASE frequency if you'd like on some routes because you have 15 planes now doing the flying instead of 12. .
#17

Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,797
You could replace some 33Ps, 772s and 77Zs (the regional config widebodies) with narrowbodies and still have good (or even BETTER frequency) and likely save some money. (Could also outsurce a lot more to KA and do the same thing).
I mean, really, you don't NEED a 777 or A330 to fly HKG-BKK/TPE/NRT/SIN/PEK/ICN, and those regional planes are already in a config where J isn't so hot, so replacing it with an A320 configured 8/150 is not really a big deal.
That and using your longhaul planes less on those kinds of 500-2000 mile routes ala the US3 and European airlines, and replacing with narrowbodies, that could easily take out a lot of capacity without decimating the longhaul network.
I mean, really, you don't NEED a 777 or A330 to fly HKG-BKK/TPE/NRT/SIN/PEK/ICN, and those regional planes are already in a config where J isn't so hot, so replacing it with an A320 configured 8/150 is not really a big deal.
That and using your longhaul planes less on those kinds of 500-2000 mile routes ala the US3 and European airlines, and replacing with narrowbodies, that could easily take out a lot of capacity without decimating the longhaul network.
HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.
It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
#18




Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: ORD [formerly] + HKG
Programs: CX Diamond, AA exExPlat, BAEC exGold, HH Diamond, Hyatt Globalist, Starriott Titanium, GE
Posts: 3,087
HKG has 3 of the top 5 busiest international trunk routes on the planet. 9 of the top 10 domestic routes are within APAC. It's a very different market to Europe/US. There is seldom any problem filling widebodies to most regional destinations.
HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.
It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.
It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
#19




Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 328
Even in 2009, CX and KA only cut around 10% capacity.
I cannot imagine CX will actually give up the existing market to Hong Kong airlines or other competitors and also the slots for Hong Kong airport.
#20




Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 328
HKG has 3 of the top 5 busiest international trunk routes on the planet. 9 of the top 10 domestic routes are within APAC. It's a very different market to Europe/US. There is seldom any problem filling widebodies to most regional destinations.
HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.
It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
HKG longhauls are also mostly overnight, so during the day those aircraft would be sitting around doing nothing if there was a separate fleet. Likewise, at night that narrowbody fleet would sitting around doing nothing. Empty aircraft might not make much money but aircraft on the ground make no money.
It is the lightly loaded long hauls, the second/third rotations, they will be looking to cut.
They have already launched YVR, AKL and OOL and LAX will coming by the end of this year.
If CX is cutting the capacity, it is just encouraged HK airlines to grow further.
#21
Suspended
Join Date: May 2006
Location: HKG
Programs: A3, TK *G; JL JGC; SPG,Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,952
Saucy...
Anyways, CX's losses is from the top level directors/officers. They do run an operating profit. Cutting capacity hardly help much.
#22




Join Date: Aug 2016
Programs: CX Life Time,TG,
Posts: 344
There are 27 A350s to come in the next 4 years. How many slots can CX get in that period? 4 maybe (say 2 Europe, 2 NA). How many long haul planes do they have? About 70. 30% of 70 is 21. 27 to come, 21 to go and 4 new routes. Rough and ready calculation but seems reasonable to me.
Just what constitutes the ones which are going? To muddy the waters I suspect that some will be A330s ex Oz. Its already been said 5 leased ones to go. Also some 330s in KA all true antiques (LKJ and HLK will be 25 this year!) Then I guess that initially A35Ks may replace some 77Gs. AMS, MAD, YVR, for example. ZUR and SFO might go A35K. Then I also suspect that SYD and MEL may switch. Remember that these rotate in less than 24 hours. Not long on the ground. High utilization. Plenty of fuel saving and an attractive beastie for a competitive route. Then maybe 77Gs replace some more 77Hs. From what I have read the only places where F will remain for sure are NYC, LHR and LAX. After that we will be lucky to keep them for FRA, CDG, and ??? in NA. And I forgot, 5 772s. So disposal of old craft spread around the fleet.
Just what constitutes the ones which are going? To muddy the waters I suspect that some will be A330s ex Oz. Its already been said 5 leased ones to go. Also some 330s in KA all true antiques (LKJ and HLK will be 25 this year!) Then I guess that initially A35Ks may replace some 77Gs. AMS, MAD, YVR, for example. ZUR and SFO might go A35K. Then I also suspect that SYD and MEL may switch. Remember that these rotate in less than 24 hours. Not long on the ground. High utilization. Plenty of fuel saving and an attractive beastie for a competitive route. Then maybe 77Gs replace some more 77Hs. From what I have read the only places where F will remain for sure are NYC, LHR and LAX. After that we will be lucky to keep them for FRA, CDG, and ??? in NA. And I forgot, 5 772s. So disposal of old craft spread around the fleet.
#23




Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 328
There are 27 A350s to come in the next 4 years. How many slots can CX get in that period? 4 maybe (say 2 Europe, 2 NA). How many long haul planes do they have? About 70. 30% of 70 is 21. 27 to come, 21 to go and 4 new routes. Rough and ready calculation but seems reasonable to me.
Just what constitutes the ones which are going? To muddy the waters I suspect that some will be A330s ex Oz. Its already been said 5 leased ones to go. Also some 330s in KA all true antiques (LKJ and HLK will be 25 this year!) Then I guess that initially A35Ks may replace some 77Gs. AMS, MAD, YVR, for example. ZUR and SFO might go A35K. Then I also suspect that SYD and MEL may switch. Remember that these rotate in less than 24 hours. Not long on the ground. High utilization. Plenty of fuel saving and an attractive beastie for a competitive route. Then maybe 77Gs replace some more 77Hs. From what I have read the only places where F will remain for sure are NYC, LHR and LAX. After that we will be lucky to keep them for FRA, CDG, and ??? in NA. And I forgot, 5 772s. So disposal of old craft spread around the fleet.
Just what constitutes the ones which are going? To muddy the waters I suspect that some will be A330s ex Oz. Its already been said 5 leased ones to go. Also some 330s in KA all true antiques (LKJ and HLK will be 25 this year!) Then I guess that initially A35Ks may replace some 77Gs. AMS, MAD, YVR, for example. ZUR and SFO might go A35K. Then I also suspect that SYD and MEL may switch. Remember that these rotate in less than 24 hours. Not long on the ground. High utilization. Plenty of fuel saving and an attractive beastie for a competitive route. Then maybe 77Gs replace some more 77Hs. From what I have read the only places where F will remain for sure are NYC, LHR and LAX. After that we will be lucky to keep them for FRA, CDG, and ??? in NA. And I forgot, 5 772s. So disposal of old craft spread around the fleet.
CX and KA share about 45% of slot and CX/KA should be able to get at least 15 extra slots.
#24
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,421
Can CX please re brand to Hong Kong Airways or Air China before it kills itself.
the words "Cathay Pacific" should not be associated with such terrible management that seems to involve
donating market share to competitors
reducing capacity while the market is booming
SQ/MI will soon overtake KA with number of mainland destinations served. There are 10 cities that those 777's could serve that SQ/EK/KE comfortably serve.
EVA might have a larger network than CX by 2020....
the words "Cathay Pacific" should not be associated with such terrible management that seems to involve
donating market share to competitors
reducing capacity while the market is booming
SQ/MI will soon overtake KA with number of mainland destinations served. There are 10 cities that those 777's could serve that SQ/EK/KE comfortably serve.
EVA might have a larger network than CX by 2020....
#25




Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 328
Can CX please re brand to Hong Kong Airways or Air China before it kills itself.
the words "Cathay Pacific" should not be associated with such terrible management that seems to involve
donating market share to competitors
reducing capacity while the market is booming
SQ/MI will soon overtake KA with number of mainland destinations served. There are 10 cities that those 777's could serve that SQ/EK/KE comfortably serve.
EVA might have a larger network than CX by 2020....
the words "Cathay Pacific" should not be associated with such terrible management that seems to involve
donating market share to competitors
reducing capacity while the market is booming
SQ/MI will soon overtake KA with number of mainland destinations served. There are 10 cities that those 777's could serve that SQ/EK/KE comfortably serve.
EVA might have a larger network than CX by 2020....
#26


Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Programs: CX, UA, Shangri-La, Hyatt, Starwood
Posts: 8,246
The problem with narrowbodies at HKG has to do with slots and cost of the main gates. It's just not practical for CX to have a massive fleet of narrowbodies, at least until there are more gates or a new runway.
The airport charges quite a bit more per hour for the main gate. Not all gates and services cost the same, and the gates CX use are in the highest category.
And there aren't too many more slots to go around unfortunately, either. It's not like CX or KA can increase that much more frequencies even if they want. If they want to keep launching new destinations, they can't really say double the number of TPE flights by adding a bunch of A320s or B737s. They're using all their additional slots on new routes.
The airport charges quite a bit more per hour for the main gate. Not all gates and services cost the same, and the gates CX use are in the highest category.
And there aren't too many more slots to go around unfortunately, either. It's not like CX or KA can increase that much more frequencies even if they want. If they want to keep launching new destinations, they can't really say double the number of TPE flights by adding a bunch of A320s or B737s. They're using all their additional slots on new routes.
#28
Suspended
Join Date: May 2006
Location: HKG
Programs: A3, TK *G; JL JGC; SPG,Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,952
if the latter then assume 2 years delay.
#30




Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Toulouse
Programs: TK*G
Posts: 301
Wow, is the business really that bad? I thought CX is not doing well, but not doing bad, apart from the loss from fuel hedging.


