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Weather Disruption at Heathrow - 27 July 2018

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Weather Disruption at Heathrow - 27 July 2018

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Old Jul 26, 2018, 7:39 am
  #1  
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Weather Disruption at Heathrow - 27 July 2018
For those travelling tomorrow BA has begun cancelling flights in to and out of LHR on Friday. The weather forecast is for thunderstorms, keep an eye on your reservations. My flight tomorrow is already cancelled and GGL said others are likely.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 7:48 am
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Thanks - will have a look.

I live pretty close to LHR and my local weather forecast is also forecasting thunderstorms on Saturday morning as well, when I'm due to be flying out on holiday with my family
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 7:49 am
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DUS, FRA, AMS, MAN, and EDI all have one rotation cancelled due to weather (there may be others - these are the ones I saw based on a quick look).
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 7:53 am
  #4  
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So far it seems these are cancelled along with the associated return:

BA484 LHR-BCN 0935
BA1386 LHR-MAN 1010
BA938 LHR-DUS 1050
BA1444 LHR-EDI 1345
BA908 LHR-FRA 1345
BA732 LHR-GVA 1400
BA354 LHR-NCE 1430
BA432 LHR-AMS 1440
BA462 LHR-MAD 1510
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 7:57 am
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Thanks for the heads up!

Im meant to be flying EDI-LHR tomorrow night (BA1459) 1850

So far its showing ok
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:01 am
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Thanks for the heads-up; flying to Berlin tomorrow night (hopefully)
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:08 am
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Thanks for the information am heading back to LHR from GLA on BA1493 tomorrow night, which is the last flight back so will keep an eye on proceedings today/tomorrow
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:09 am
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Just seen a forecast for Kingston upon Thames tomorrow so about six miles from LHR, the risk of rain is put at 20% so BA have obviously used the opportunity to cancel a few lightly loaded flights.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:13 am
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Originally Posted by Dover2Golf
Just seen a forecast for Kingston upon Thames tomorrow so about six miles from LHR, the risk of rain is put at 20% so BA have obviously used the opportunity to cancel a few lightly loaded flights.
I guess the met office must be in on the conspiracy as well


Code:
EGLL 261350Z AUTO 18012KT 140V210 9999 NCD 33/12 Q1012 NOSIG

TAF EGLL 261057Z 2612/2718 14008KT 9999 FEW045 
  BECMG 2612/2615 20010KT 
  BECMG 2621/2624 26005KT 
  PROB30 
  TEMPO 2621/2704 8000 TSRA 
  TEMPO 2715/2718 6000 SHRA BKN040CB 
  PROB30 
  TEMPO 2716/2718 3500 +TSRA
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:14 am
  #10  
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Originally Posted by Dover2Golf
Just seen a forecast for Kingston upon Thames tomorrow so about six miles from LHR, the risk of rain is put at 20% so BA have obviously used the opportunity to cancel a few lightly loaded flights.
I see what you're getting at, but the storms don't necessarily have to be bang over the top of LHR to cause disruption. If there are storms forecast around the holding areas for example, this would cause a reduction.

Maybe one of the ATC experts will give more information.

Edit : Damn you KARFA
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:23 am
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Originally Posted by Dover2Golf
Just seen a forecast for Kingston upon Thames tomorrow so about six miles from LHR, the risk of rain is put at 20% so BA have obviously used the opportunity to cancel a few lightly loaded flights.
.... and it's consistently 40-50% risk for Denham (just NW of LHR) for 6 hours in a row overnight tonight, plus an additional weather front at 50% thunder risk from 6am - so it looks like there may well be a lot of "weather" in the area. I can't decipher the more technical report sadly
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:24 am
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If BA cancels flights the day before because of expected thunderstorms, but those never arrive - is BA then liable for EU261?
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:29 am
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Originally Posted by ThatT1Feeling
.... and it's consistently 40-50% risk for Denham (just NW of LHR) for 6 hours in a row overnight tonight, plus an additional weather front at 50% thunder risk from 6am - so it looks like there may well be a lot of "weather" in the area. I can't decipher the more technical report sadly
TEMPO 2716/2718 3500 +TSRA
This is the key bit: 27th from 16:00 to 18:00hrs visibility 3500m Strong Thunderstorms and Rain.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:31 am
  #14  
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Originally Posted by DYKWIA
Maybe one of the ATC experts will give more information.
Some great information from a resident ATC expert Heathrow Tower about how this all works in terms of proactive cancellations due to weather https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/27632906-post52.html

I guess this is what is happening here, forecast of poor weather tomorrow resulting in reduced landing rate prediction resulting in proactive cancellations so demand doesn't outstrip capacity.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 8:34 am
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Originally Posted by Steve_ZA
This is the key bit: 27th from 16:00 to 18:00hrs visibility 3500m Strong Thunderstorms and Rain.
Thanks... I was getting there through a thorough review of the getmet pdf on the Metoffice website ... you'll be proud of me that I even noticed the "+"
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