JNelson113

Really? So you are saying 2023? These countries would really close themselves to visitors and tourism and business dollars for 3! years? What if there is an effective vaccine by first quarter 2021 along with effective therapeutics and rapid testing. Would these countries really stay closed another two years for a virus that has a death rate of .1% under age 70? I guess I'd be astounded by that.

invisible

Key for happiness - low expectations.

Even if there will be safe, tested and approved vaccine in 6 months, how many doses will be available to vaccinate any given country?

For any country to to open their borders without risking anew infections, either all visitors need to be vaccinated (they are not bringing ilness) or majority of locals need to be vaccinated (to exclude new infections).

Now let’s think which of above scenarios are realistic in less than a year.

invisible

Look around. Slowly. Anything surprises you any more?

Quote:

Originally Posted by JNelson113

Really?

If someone a year ago would tell me that in the country where I live now 6 month in future for going outside without a mask one would risk $1000 and 6 month jail, that to enter to any premises in the whole country I must scan QR code which transmits my name, address, ID number, phone number, location and timestamp to a government server and if I leave the country I might not be allowed to come back just because I left it - what do you think I would tell that prophet?

ruby&carlos

I think (hope) the combination of a widely available vaccine in addition to quick 15-minute tests at the airport will allow for the skies to open back up significantly more than they are now.

IAN-UK

Sarawak and Sabah enjoy enjoy some important elements of autonomy: immigration is one of them.

SQTraveller

Note invisible said "hassle free" travel. Not no travel. These aren't the same statement.

In fact some countries in SE Asia have already opened up to some business travel. For example, Singapore allows business travel to and from a small number of countries with which they have made agreements with. The government there have been saying that they are working to establish more bilateral agreements. On the whole, these are countries which have strong enforcement regimes and it seems likely that only those countries with strong enforcement, testing and tracing systems are likely to be allowed in. So basically if you are from the US or Europe, you're not getting in.

Of course there is the counter factual which you raise, what if 1) there is an effective vaccine in Q1 2021, 2) effective therapeutics 3) rapid testing. If all these three are in place, then i'm sure we'll be back to normal in a jiffy. However, what you need is not just an effective vaccine, you need it widely distributed and used. You're talking billions of vaccines that need to be produced... and that you need enough people to take it.
Look I'm not saying it's not possible, but I don't think you'll be getting those billions of vaccines until mid to late next year and distributed to the minimum herd immunity level. That's the point at which governments will likely allow significant mass travel again.

If you live in a bloc, like the EU, you will likely be able to cross those borders. Or even in SE Asia, they may open up to ASEAN tourists, but it's likely to be a segregated world of travel.

JNelson113

Fair enough. I'm a US citizen and I continue to believe that I will be able to enter an Asian country (other than Cambodia) by the end of 2021 without a 14 day quarantine. It may require proof of vaccination, testing before and upon entry, and a short (3ish day) quarantine, but I believe that this will be possible. I guess we'll see!

SQTraveller

Oh don't get me wrong, it would be great to have more people (safely) travelling again. As you said, a lot of SE Asian countries rely on tourism. Malaysia isn't so heavily dependent on it, but plenty of others in the region really need the business.

I hope that we can be on the move again by the middle of next year, but I am mentally preparing for the likelihood it won't be the case that way I won't be disappointed!

JNelson113

Thanks, SQTraveller! I think that we're all managing our emotions differently to just get through this. I love Asia so much and I'm missing some of my favorite places, especially Singapore and Hong Kong. It helps me to be optimistic that I can return sometime next year, even as I know it may not happen.

Fingers crossed!