Originally Posted by
JNelson113
Really? So you are saying 2023? These countries would really close themselves to visitors and tourism and business dollars for 3! years? What if there is an effective vaccine by first quarter 2021 along with effective therapeutics and rapid testing. Would these countries really stay closed another two years for a virus that has a death rate of .1% under age 70? I guess I'd be astounded by that.
Note invisible said "hassle free" travel. Not no travel. These aren't the same statement.
In fact some countries in SE Asia have already opened up to some business travel. For example, Singapore allows business travel to and from a small number of countries with which they have made agreements with. The government there have been saying that they are working to establish more bilateral agreements. On the whole, these are countries which have strong enforcement regimes and it seems likely that only those countries with strong enforcement, testing and tracing systems are likely to be allowed in. So basically if you are from the US or Europe, you're not getting in.
Of course there is the counter factual which you raise, what if 1) there is an effective vaccine in Q1 2021, 2) effective therapeutics 3) rapid testing. If all these three are in place, then i'm sure we'll be back to normal in a jiffy. However, what you need is not just an effective vaccine, you need it widely distributed and used. You're talking billions of vaccines that need to be produced... and that you need enough people to take it.
Look I'm not saying it's not possible, but I don't think you'll be getting those billions of vaccines until mid to late next year and distributed to the minimum herd immunity level. That's the point at which governments will likely allow significant mass travel again.
If you live in a bloc, like the EU, you will likely be able to cross those borders. Or even in SE Asia, they may open up to ASEAN tourists, but it's likely to be a segregated world of travel.