iahphx

After reading this story, it's hard to imagine why anyone would invest in Argentina. How does Aerolineas fly overseas without having its aircraft seized?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...es-energy.html

Gaucho100K

Investing in Argentina is not easy, and this story only covers some of the latest events. The investment climate for large high profile companies has been adverse for over a decade, this is the main reason why FDI into Argentina is at pathetic levels when compared to Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru and even Uruguay. Needless to say, FDI is not going to increase anytime soon, at least not with the current K regime in Power.

Aerolineas can fly overseas because it does so with leased aircraft..... else, chances are they would get into legal issues. Also, on paper, Aerolineas is still owned by Spanish Investors.... its a long story but the Argentine Government did a legal intervention of the company but the formal ownership is still in the hands of the Spanish Marsans Group.

iahphx

Interesting. I would still think you could get a judge somewhere to seize one of their planes. And what about Argentine embassy property? Anybody try to take that?

erik123

They don't own the planes - and every lease also provides an opportunity for a pay-off.

Embassy property is off limits.

iahphx

I dunno. If you owed me a billion dollars, I might think of taking your embassy and selling it off.

It's not like Kirchner is playing by the rules.

Gaucho100K

No on both counts..... you said you were a professional investor...?

Most of the defaulted sovereign bonds that are still out there are (hold-outs) are in the hands of hedge-funds... these are play hard boys that know their stuff and dont care to hire the best and harshest lawyers. Dont you think that they would try to grab there birds if they could...?

Embassy property is clearly off limits... no chance in hell a proper Judge of a proper legal system would go near them. Im no lawyer, but as far as I understand these assets are protected by various international laws, one of which I believe is the Vienna Convention.

Eastbay1K

No, but you play one on TV.

iahphx

Yeah, but Argentina's creditors are protected by lots of international laws, too. A lot of good that's doing them!

I would think that if you owe lots of people lots of billions of dollars, some very bad things are likely to happen to you. Including some interesting legal interpretations. Do you think only Kirchner can make up the rules as she goes along?

HIDDY

I suppose the US is debt free?

iahphx

Of course not. But it pays its creditors -- as do almost all other countries in the world. Even Hugo Chavez! Argentina has decided to thumb its nose at the world and not pay. It's probably not the right thing to do.

Siempre Viajando

Maybe not, but so far Argentina seems to be getting away with it. Bringing the country to heel is no simple chore, especially when the government has popular support.

As a taxi driver in Mendoza put it to me a few years ago, "as long as there is beef and red wine in this country, things will never get so bad that its people will be forced to demand change of the government". There's a certain truth in this, I think, which shields the government from consequences of its own idiotic policies vis-a-vis international creditors and the likes of the IMF.

Schultzois

And so one of the most resource-rich countries in the world - which could probably become one of the most powerful countries in the world for its population and even geographic footprint - continues on in this cycle that falters between vaguely coherent and totally incoherent.

My first visit to Argentina was now ten years ago, when talent was fleeing the country, and virtually everyone I encountered was saying things along the lines of, "We keep making the same mistakes over and over again. We choose bad leaders; we don't make use of the potential we have. Now our best people are leaving..."

As a somewhat naive and somewhat enlightened sort, I actually read that as a promising sign of a population that was starting to figure things out... for a short while, I even thought things were turning around. But, for lack of a better expression, "here we go again," and now rather abruptly, talented people are leaving again, and those here are all waiting for the next shoe to drop.

So... getting away with it, perhaps. But certainly not many - if any - in the country are benefiting from the way things are going here. Leaders may seem to benefit, but even they might find that their jobs would be easier, and their posts more rewarding, if instead of shunning the rest of the world, they could actually engage it.

iahphx

Yeah, Argentina is like the North Korea of the int'l debt world: nobody seems sufficiently motivated to actually stop them from violating int'l protocols.

I would think that seizing a major oil company, and then refusing to pay for it, might put this back on the frontburner, though. Especially in Europe. The Spanish seem particularly agitated by it (and rightfully so).

NPF

If you have no intention (like Argentine) or no capacity (like Greece) to pay it, you can be sure that bad things will happen, but it will take some time; there are some rituals to do it, you must respect the (nominal) sovereignity of the country (not to do it only plays into the government's hand, who would love an external enemy to distract the populace).

Unfortunately for the argentinians, things will get much, much worse there before any chance of improvement, I believe.

HIDDY

To think all this anti Argentina propaganda was started by someone who resents having to pay a couple more pesos for an empanada.