question on award tickets and prices
May 2, 2024, 1:16 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 601
question on award tickets and prices
Looking at booking RDU to MIA to AXA for next spring break- the outbound dates literally went on sale today- so no hurry, but I have a couple of questions.
1. Pricing is dynamic in miles, how likely are those prices to come down? Right now they are fairly high (60k points or so one way) - weekday prices are much lower (20k). 120k round trip is lot more than I want to pay for a trip to the Caribbean in economy.
2. If I go ahead and buy now - and prices drop, I can get a 100% refund of miles and fees correct? (edit - verified this on AA.com)
3. If I do go ahead and buy, is that likely to mess up the algorithm that does dynamic prices and contribute in a meaningful way to prices in the future?
Thanks all
1. Pricing is dynamic in miles, how likely are those prices to come down? Right now they are fairly high (60k points or so one way) - weekday prices are much lower (20k). 120k round trip is lot more than I want to pay for a trip to the Caribbean in economy.
2. If I go ahead and buy now - and prices drop, I can get a 100% refund of miles and fees correct? (edit - verified this on AA.com)
3. If I do go ahead and buy, is that likely to mess up the algorithm that does dynamic prices and contribute in a meaningful way to prices in the future?
Thanks all
Last edited by Scotttyd; May 2, 2024 at 2:00 pm
May 2, 2024, 2:21 pm
#2
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I don't know how you value your miles, but paying 120K to the Caribbean you'd almost always be better off paying cash. As for your other questions:
1. I personally think the rates will go down. It's not at all uncommon to see 10K each way to AXA. You could also consider SXM. A short ferry connects the two islands.
2. You've verified, but I'll reiterate, no problem getting points refunded on any cancellation up to departure.
3. Unlikely. Your 1 ticket is immaterial to how full the entire aircraft is. I find the best deals to the Caribbean come at the last minute.
1. I personally think the rates will go down. It's not at all uncommon to see 10K each way to AXA. You could also consider SXM. A short ferry connects the two islands.
2. You've verified, but I'll reiterate, no problem getting points refunded on any cancellation up to departure.
3. Unlikely. Your 1 ticket is immaterial to how full the entire aircraft is. I find the best deals to the Caribbean come at the last minute.
May 2, 2024, 2:45 pm
#3
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in my experience prices tend to be rather high a long time out. they tend to drop maybe 1 month to a few weeks out. and can be dirt cheap at the very last minute.
as long as you arent short on miles, I'd say tie something up now just so you know you have it, and monitor prices literally till the day of departure. if the price drops, cancel and re-book.
just dont make the mistake of keeping two tickets on the same route for the same person active for longer than it takes to cancel / rebook, otherwise the system might cancel one of them for you.
May 2, 2024, 3:14 pm
#4
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 601
This.
in my experience prices tend to be rather high a long time out. they tend to drop maybe 1 month to a few weeks out. and can be dirt cheap at the very last minute.
as long as you arent short on miles, I'd say tie something up now just so you know you have it, and monitor prices literally till the day of departure. if the price drops, cancel and re-book.
just dont make the mistake of keeping two tickets on the same route for the same person active for longer than it takes to cancel / rebook, otherwise the system might cancel one of them for you.
in my experience prices tend to be rather high a long time out. they tend to drop maybe 1 month to a few weeks out. and can be dirt cheap at the very last minute.
as long as you arent short on miles, I'd say tie something up now just so you know you have it, and monitor prices literally till the day of departure. if the price drops, cancel and re-book.
just dont make the mistake of keeping two tickets on the same route for the same person active for longer than it takes to cancel / rebook, otherwise the system might cancel one of them for you.
and thanks for the heads up on two tickets, I won't do that, but good advice.
I know the ferry from SXM, did that last time, but willing to pay a little more for convenience since we will have our 5 year old with us.
May 2, 2024, 3:32 pm
#5
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even reservations will trigger the wrath of the computer. so if you make a new reservation and need to cancel the old one to pay for the new, make sure you call in and get them to put the miles back in your account if they dont show up immediately (they often times dont). if you let things sit overnight youll wake up in the morning and find the computer canceled one of the itineraries. Probably the one you really wanted to keep.
May 2, 2024, 3:52 pm
#6
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There’s really no point in booking now. Even if you can cancel and rebook for free if prices drop, by booking tickets you’re contributing to the demand side of the equation until then. On your own, a couple seats may not make a huge difference, but if everyone takes this approach it adds up.
May 2, 2024, 4:12 pm
#7
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There’s really no point in booking now. Even if you can cancel and rebook for free if prices drop, by booking tickets you’re contributing to the demand side of the equation until then. On your own, a couple seats may not make a huge difference, but if everyone takes this approach it adds up.
May 2, 2024, 7:40 pm
#8
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There’s really no point in booking now. Even if you can cancel and rebook for free if prices drop, by booking tickets you’re contributing to the demand side of the equation until then. On your own, a couple seats may not make a huge difference, but if everyone takes this approach it adds up.
the point to booking now is to secure tickets at a price the OP can accept. we know essentially nothing about his travel plans as well as American's future pricing. while the price may go down later on, it might also go up. booking now protects the op from that at no cost.
May 2, 2024, 11:04 pm
#9
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There’s really no point in booking now. Even if you can cancel and rebook for free if prices drop, by booking tickets you’re contributing to the demand side of the equation until then. On your own, a couple seats may not make a huge difference, but if everyone takes this approach it adds up.
May 2, 2024, 11:39 pm
#10
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your advice only makes sense if the rest of the world follows it too. those looking to book award travel AND revenue.
the point to booking now is to secure tickets at a price the OP can accept. we know essentially nothing about his travel plans as well as American's future pricing. while the price may go down later on, it might also go up. booking now protects the op from that at no cost.
the point to booking now is to secure tickets at a price the OP can accept. we know essentially nothing about his travel plans as well as American's future pricing. while the price may go down later on, it might also go up. booking now protects the op from that at no cost.
If you absolutely have to fly and absolutely cannot have the price go up, then by all means lock it in, but you're doing the opposite of helping the prices come down.
May 3, 2024, 1:58 am
#11
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It doesn't really matter. If seats are selling, airlines have no reason to come down on prices. Any increase to the demand side of the equation works against you.
If you absolutely have to fly and absolutely cannot have the price go up, then by all means lock it in, but you're doing the opposite of helping the prices come down.
If you absolutely have to fly and absolutely cannot have the price go up, then by all means lock it in, but you're doing the opposite of helping the prices come down.
I'd argue it's much more likely that some higherup exec at AA will read your post, and say to all his fellow execs 'they done figured us out, boys, we cant lower the price of award tickets NOW!'
May 4, 2024, 8:15 am
#12
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american flies something like half a billion seat segments per year. if you think booking two tickets is going to hamper your chances of an award ticket coming down in price, you go right ahead and wait.
I'd argue it's much more likely that some higherup exec at AA will read your post, and say to all his fellow execs 'they done figured us out, boys, we cant lower the price of award tickets NOW!'
I'd argue it's much more likely that some higherup exec at AA will read your post, and say to all his fellow execs 'they done figured us out, boys, we cant lower the price of award tickets NOW!'
May 4, 2024, 3:21 pm
#13
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there is a reason why this is the *generally* observed behavior with pricing as departure approaches.
May 4, 2024, 6:57 pm
#15
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point taken, i missed that.
i would argue however that the same strategy is still the best. if it's a highly popular travel spot / time, then book early or else you risk paying a higher price of having no flights available at all.
i would argue however that the same strategy is still the best. if it's a highly popular travel spot / time, then book early or else you risk paying a higher price of having no flights available at all.