That is a bold statement.

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Frankly, I want to see AA rebuild to Asia, but don't really care if its HND. Lots of history (already) with HND flights on US Carriers. It's like a siren song, thinking there would be advantages and high premium cabin demand, but then the timing sucks, a lot of people taking a US carrier to Japan have no qualms about NRT anyways (or, even prefer it for connections), and the demand just doesn't materialize. AA needs to get back in the game, UA (plus partners) are getting more and more dominant on transpac operations, but AA can develop a strategy that is just fine without AA flown flights into HND.

In spite of the decent AS feed, AA may well have lost its chance to establish a beachhead in Seattle. While DL hasn't added many new long haul routes from SEA since it dumped its entire 777 fleet, they have made considerable progress on the supporting network and infrastructure fronts.

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How would PDX fare as a transpacific hub? Delta use to have a hub there many years ago.

NW's NRT flight (that DL inherited) seemed to be pretty popular back in the day (but, much more recently than the DL PDX hub era); O&D demand was supported by feed on both ends (AS in PDX and a hub at NRT).

But, now AS feed isn't really a thing, NRT is no longer a hub, and NRT's attractiveness from an O&D standpoint has decreased markedly ever since HND became a viable option.

It's conceivable that AA, JL, NH, or UA could make PDX-HND pencil in the new environment because all four could provide connections in Japan and the former two could rely on AS in PDX, but none of them have bitten, in spite of likely subsidies from the Port of Portland and local businesses.

From 2018/2019? It could be but Delta and others pretty convincingly shut it down at the time by making claims regarding AA's lacking onward connectivity options out of LAS.

....before DL was awarded PDX with even fewer connecting options than LAS.

True, but DL also is the weakest of the lot now on the TYO side. AA has JL, UA has NH.

Not sure if this plays into it, but just a thought.

I never claimed the government was consistent. I also think DL is better at this game than AA.

While I would like it - I seriously doubt it is a possibility to have SEA-HND. That route is already served by ANA and I don't think they feed enough into SEA to go head-to-head. Their commitment to the SEA focus that was announced with the AS OneWorld acceptance seems to have stalled out.


I would be pretty happy if one of the OW carriers made PDX a real hub again.

<-- AS flyer

FIFY

I've found watching the game to be interesting. Since both American and Delta would presumably need to pull planes from other lucrative routes in order to start a new HND route (before their Aribus orders are filled), bluffing and delaying figure prominently into their moves. But, the DOT seems to be losing patience; whoever wins this round will have to figure out a way to launch daily service before whatever deadline is established, or else they'll risk disadvantaging themselves in future competitive slot allocations (e.g. China). Meanwhile, United has remained mostly silent. Not only could they theoretically serve GUM-HND with any mainline a/c, but their 777/787 fleets have sufficient slack to pull the trigger on IAH-HND almost immediately (I use this term loosely, of course).

I still believe that the DOT would prefer AA or DL winning this round because this would level the playing field a tiny bit. But, ultimately, its mandate is to serve the US public, and we benefit more from active routes than empty promises.

Not quite. Although the route may be short enough for any mainline aircraft, it would have to be an ETOPS aircraft. I have no idea how many extra of those there are.

Realistically, unless AA and DL completely bow out, I can't imagine them applying with anything smaller than a 763, but they seem to like flying narrow bodies to Hawaii.

With the dearth of JFK/HND JAL J/F award inventory these days (even last-minute), being able to use a SWU on this route would be nice. Though if it's at the expense of one of the two JAL flights, ...

I'm surprised AUS-HND nor SJC-HND haven't been talked about especially now ANA is no longer flying the latter