VFR

The current promotions expire at the end of August. Given travel tends to drop at the end of the summer, it’s quite possible they do something for the last four months of the year, probably skewing in the direction of another chance to buy progress towards status.

radonc1

That would be great for those who are chasing status, but I have already achieved PP status. Unless there is something that will get me a pot load of EQDs without spending a pot load of $$s, I will never achieve EXP, although I suspect that I will get another 15K EQMs before year's end.

I can live with PP. I would not spend $8K more dollars just to reach EXP and I doubt that AA would lower the EQD threshold enough to entice me to try.

enviroian

With the promotion it was lowered to $9K

hp12c

With all the changes to benefits over the last year (PP supposedly mapping to OW Emerald, no mileage reinstatement fee for award cancellations), it seems the only benefit to EXP is getting more SWUs and being higher on the upgrade list.

meechyathere

Upgrades on award tickets too.

aztimm

I think that's a good possibility. They'll look at current stats and future bookings sometime around late Aug/early Sep, and go from there. Or that's what they should be doing. We all know that they'll probably just copy what the competition does.

For me personally, I've flown once this year, in late April/early May, and it sounds like I'm not alone in that. I flew once last summer, and didn't feel comfortable doing it again until I had been fully vaccinated.
As luck would have it, I have several trips booked over the coming months, so I'll be able to max out the current promotions. I still don't think it will be enough to make PPro or EXP status (I think it will be for Gold, possibly Plat). I'm on the fence with a Europe trip this fall (a place that is open to Americans today), and if I do I'll certainly make PPro, possibly even EXP.

nk15

Without TPACs, not even TATLs will do much this year, I am afraid…

HaleiwaFlyer

I agree with you, no need to spend money when you don't have to. There is a huge component of fear of missing out or marketing to people's wants (versus needs) which makes people spend and achieve status. When AA lowers the threshold, I bet you there will be individuals spending money when they would not have without the lower thresholds.

Good for you for knowing what your goals are for flight spend, and criterial for spending. It is still post-taxed money being spent on any fare, and investing in yourself is the best loyalty program of them all.

jtc246

I almost look forward to becoming a Free Agent, LOL

nk15

I think it is hard to justify going for status in this environment...The only true motivator I can find is fear of getting stuck in Y with unvaccinated jackasses, especially if masks get dropped after September...

outgoing

This!

Although I may just start to buy the upfares to first if they'll be reasonably priced. I would not want to lose Emerald though b/c I do hope that APAC will reopen (I mean they have to in '22, right, please!) and man I miss the first class lounges in HKG/SYD/TYO (cannot afford international first and don't think it is worth the upcharge over business actually)! Plus I have a ton of miles and I think it may be easier to use them if you have higher status. I wouldn't be surprised if the new OW-wide upgrade initiative will be based on status. Oddly, I also have to say that to date AA actually treated me quite well. Not sure I want to start from the scratch with another airline and with Alaska/JetBlue AA actually become more competitive imo e.g., tomorrow we're flying lie-flats to SEA-BOS for like 1.2K RT booked two days ahead. At these price levels and service quality I can see myself spending more than I need to just b/c I miss flying quite a lot. My other option is Delta but folks keep saying that SkyTeam is generally not as green as one might think. Might just go for PPro where I may be short on miles actually rather than $ unless some TATL pops up (I really hope that AA opens KEF again for late summer).

FWIW, I don't think we're out of the woods with the pandemic just yet. I really hope I'm wrong but I see a non-zero probability of variant that will avoid vaccines which will bring us back to March 2020. Most likely not that extreme - the government is not going to go for this - but if the cases start surging again and efficacy against variants drops significantly then count me out of crowded places and travel. I think I may not be alone in this preference. I think in this scenario they will just extent status. At the same time, any kind of status is useless if I cannot fly/enjoy flying.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

Well if you must travel or like to travel very regularly then I haven't a clue as to these statements about "free agent" unless you can afford to buy premium cabins all the time. Really, someone is worried about "COVID" on a plane. I'm more worried about being shoved into 32E squeezed between to two morbidly obese people with their usually not particularly washed skin rubbing up on me. At least with status (because I'm flying in excess of 150K miles a year) I have a chance of escaping that "experience" which on a flight to the west coast would be 5 hours plus.

If one thinks flying 1-2 a week in seat 32E is acceptable then I'd say go for it.

outgoing

Well, I was never stuck in 32E but I am pretty sure I did catch a flu once from a lovely child that was sitting next to me and coughing every other minute on a 4 hours flight in the economy. So yes, once masks are off but cases are not even more down my anxiety will go up. I also personally know someone who died from COVID and a fully-vaxed severe breakthrough case - jeez maybe I should start playing a lottery. Getting an exit row when one cannot purchase/be upped to first is a worthy perk even though I do not fly 1-2 a week. But I do did fly TATL/TPAC 5-6 times a year and until about a year before the pandemic I was quite successful with SUWs. I hope these times will be back as it would very much elevate the value of EXP for me.

radonc1

If everyone were in your shoes, then airlines such as Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant would not exist.

Most people don't have the funds (or have OPM) to pay for sitting in the pointy end of the plane. They also don't fly enough to achieve elite status. They do wind up in 32E.

If someone is putting 150K miles on their body in the time of the pandemic, then they can choose any legacy airline and achieve instant status by completing a challenge. They will never be in 32E unless they did a same day change onto a full flight..

enviroian

And neither would the uptick in brawls @ MIA either