iadisgreat

I don't expect travel to decrease in the long run as much as others are predicting. Prior to this I was on client site 4 days a week with a lot of others from all over the country. Have we made it through using Teams for everything? Of course. As effectively as if we had been in person? Of course not.

I expect to be back on the road again by June and my very large firm has made no statements that they expect travel to change.

Flying for Fun

The next couple of weeks will be interesting. Govenor Kemp is either going to a hero or a zero. If (when?) infections start upticking in Georgia the damage will have already been done. On April 1st, there were 940,524 cases in the World, 23 days later there are 925,038 cases in the USA alone, with over 52,000 deaths; more than Italy & Spain combined. If Georgia finds itself rallying for 2nd place after New York, non-essential air travel could be pushed back late summer early fall & international off the table this year as other countries extend their bans on flights from the USA.

I am sure those on the beaches in Georgia this weekend and out dining on Monday will be sitting next to contagious asymptomatic carriers, from neighbouring states and even the Northeast, looking for a "getaway" from their "stay at home" orders. I am very nervous for the Unites States.

James

Nephoi

as mentioned earlier in another thread this is a little gem from the german version of the daily show... "easing the restrictions now because numbers are falling is like stopping contraception after 8 weeks because you didnt get pregnant." - most professionals expect a rise in numbers.

for the toptic: i also see TXL-PHL or BER-PHL in danger. which saddens me. i hoped for Berlin-PHL all year long and maybe one more continental US destination ex Berlin...

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

The issue I see is employees (and clients) being afraid to travel (I already see it in my company with people saying they aren't flying for months to come). I don't think companies are going to take a hard line or force clients back onsite if they have skittish workers. Agreed using Teams/Web Ex/Sharepoint/Zoom etc. becomes a real PITA in the long term.

Justin026

So, in terms of the thread topic, you see less service to Atlanta on AA in the coming months. Got it.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

I know one thing I'll be glad when AA decides on a schedule. It will impossible to get business travelers back in the air if flights are constantly cancelled out 2-4 days.

Justin026

This is exactly the point. I get it that the network is cut back xx% and this means 1-3 daily flights. But without knowledge that they seriously intend to fly at that level, you can’t put together a business trip. I have been grounded since March 10, but last week an (essential) business visitor came to my (empty) offices and met with me, after buying last minute tickets. His flight to ATL from O’Hare went fine but his trip home the next day was rescheduled twice, then moved to a third day and to Midway. Three days to have a three hour meeting with me and visit one field site, and then he has to shuttle between airports in Chicago to get his car and drive home.

Flying for Fun

Great, let's revisit this in due course. Infectious disease epidemiology research on prior pandemics have shown that in the initail stages, those areas that adhered more rigorously to social-distancing faired better than those that didn't. When social-distancing was relaxed too early, those areas were hit harder in the second wave such that their numbers were commensurate with those areas that were late implementing. While Georgia didn't decree a stay-at-home order until April 3rd they were somewhat sheltered with the decrease in air travel and stay-at-home orders in other jurisdictions decreed earlier. I would be concerned to see an influx of out-of-state license plates in Georgia. Not everyone will be flying. In terms of AA there may well be an increase in flights to Atlanta over the coming months but they could be full of essential supporters to assist. Time will tell! I know I won't be traveling to Georgia anytime soon.

I hope I am wrong but history suggests that I may not be. Georgia needs to be prepaired to test everyone with flu-like symptoms (not just hospitalized and front-line workers) and immediately isolate those with positive results along with all others they have been in contact with. Can they do that? Do they have designated quarentine facilities in place? Supporting infrastructure? Contact tracing initiatives? Opening up the economy "willy-nilly" could have dire consequences. When NY imposed their stay-at-home order on March 22nd, there were a little over 15K cases; today nearly 20* fold. On that same date Georgia was 9th on the list of the top 10 most affected States, it is 12th now. Don't forget that the USA has only 4.25% of the world's population, yet has 25% of the world's deaths and 33% of the world's infections.

One thing we absolutely know with certainty about COVID-19 is that we can't see the enemy. Perhaps with less certainty but greater probability, air travel whether on AA or not will not be bouncing back anytime soon. When only 10% of the flights are flying, most at less than 50% capacity, a 100% increase in demand with no additional airframes required still means you are down 80%. Shuttle markets on bus schedules won't be returning this year and probably not next year either.

I am being a realist. I would rather be dead wrong than dead and buried.

James

EDIT

* Correcting information in original post. It is in fact, 20 fold in NY, not 30 fold as indicated, ~300K cases.

pauleeepaul

Here is another

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krystal_Ball

carlosdca

In the case of my employer and our clients, We are actually all for it (zoom/webex, etc) and top management is very excited that things are working out so well now. Everybody is looking forward to spending more time at home when things go back to normal. We don't consider remote-conferencing a PITA.
So, as far as my employer goes, our need for air travel has already decreased.
I can't speak for your type of business but I can speak for mine.

What will the impact be overall to the global or domestic long term travel demand? Nobody knows exactly. IMO, there seems to be a case for long term reduced demand, not back to pre-Covid 19.

cmtlatitudes

I thought our borders were still closed to flights from China?

Just saw tonight on Flightradar 24, an incoming China Southern Airlines flight from Wuhan to JFK. (???) CSN8419.

LtKernelPanic

Most likely either a cargo or repatriation flight though it seems to be a daily flight. Wouldn't be surprised if it's cargo.

rayfes

I'm in AUS and go to both of those places for work so I'm sad to hear this (but thank you for passing along this info). My work travel is down to once a quarter and will fall further. I've been working at least part time remotely for 20 years and trying to convince people (particularly those that pay me) that it can work. The change in attitude may be one of the few positive things to come out of this. And the demise of shaking hands.

george 3

My firm needs to perform local DD for acquisitions, so we will be back on planes when the markets for what we buy returns. Investor presentations are often subject to government regulation, so future site meetings/visits will be spotty through the end of the year. I agree, Teams is better than regular conference calls, but nothing replaces in person visits. I expect to be back out on the road in July.

jacca83

I'm wondering if this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back with 3 Class Service. I hope not, but it definitely crossed my mind.