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Speculation: In the Coronavirus aftermath, what routes will be lost?

Speculation: In the Coronavirus aftermath, what routes will be lost?

Old Apr 21, 20, 10:41 am
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Speculation: In the Coronavirus aftermath, what routes will be lost?

We had to cancel a planned trip to Australia. Now I wonder if AA will return there anytime soon after we get back to flying? My guess is that it may be a while before demand warrants AA's return to Sydney. What other cities might be on the chopping block?
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Old Apr 21, 20, 10:52 am
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Originally Posted by flyupfront View Post
We had to cancel a planned trip to Australia. Now I wonder if AA will return there anytime soon after we get back to flying? My guess is that it may be a while before demand warrants AA's return to Sydney. What other cities might be on the chopping block?
Oh I don't know.....MXP??
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Old Apr 21, 20, 11:05 am
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No one knows and no one knows when certain cities will come back. Certainly the summer International travel season is toast and probably the domestic summer season as well, at least for the first part of summer. No one knows what our economy is going to look like in 6 months. If it's 20%+ unemployment we will see a massive pull back in routes and frequencies and airlines going under.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 11:06 am
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Originally Posted by flyupfront View Post
We had to cancel a planned trip to Australia. Now I wonder if AA will return there anytime soon after we get back to flying? My guess is that it may be a while before demand warrants AA's return to Sydney. What other cities might be on the chopping block?
You could very well see a situation where routes like SYD go from every day service to a few times a week instead of cutting it altogether.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 11:17 am
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Originally Posted by flyupfront View Post
We had to cancel a planned trip to Australia. Now I wonder if AA will return there anytime soon after we get back to flying? My guess is that it may be a while before demand warrants AA's return to Sydney. What other cities might be on the chopping block?
I suspect that everything that was “on the chopping block,” has already been axed. As to when full schedules return, probably a year with popular routes easing in as early as mid fall at least that’s my reading of the tea leaves. Even Doug Parker hasn’t figured it out yet. I got a call last week from AA asking me which routes I intend to be flying once restrictions are lifted and so they’re at least trying to get a read before they start loading routes. Incidentally, I have flights on AA metal scheduled for late October to CDG and November to FCO which haven’t been cancelled, at least as I write.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 12:35 pm
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Beijing and Shanghai won't come back without a full code share deal with China Southern out of Shanghai and Beijing to mainland China and other Asian destinations. Being more ambitious CAAC would let China Southern fly JFK-T8 to Beijing and ORD.

Perhaps EVERYTHING ex LGA ... a consolidation into JFK T8 for a while would make sense. Adds to critical mass for restoration of long-haul international flights ex JFK, and USDOT and PANYNJ would let them keep LGA slots while "C" and "D" concourses are torn down in Terminal B for construction of the new Main Terminal western concourses.

Slashed frequencies to major OW destinations (SYD, HKG, LHR, MAD, TYO) done in concert with a deeper integration.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 3:24 pm
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No one knows. Many routes will come back. Some routes won't. Some routes will return this year. Some routes won't come back until next year. Some routes will have reduced frequencies. Etc.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 4:33 pm
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I think that no one, including airline executives, has more than a wild guess as to what travel will look like in June, September, or next year, so I suspect that even AA's executives are guessing here too.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 4:49 pm
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Nobody has a clue right now.

A lot will depend on restrictions elsewhere as well as the recovery elsewhere too.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 4:53 pm
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I am guessing that LIT-NRT will get chopped. More's the pity.

Safe Travels
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Old Apr 21, 20, 5:39 pm
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I bet SEA-BLR never launches.
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Old Apr 21, 20, 7:20 pm
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The international 757 routes (e.g. PHL to EDI) are probably gone until they take possession of A321LRs with lie-flat seats in the front.

A lot of the routes out of PHL and MIA that were having trouble filling a 767 with 209 seats probably won't be able to fill a 788 with 239 seats (and some of those are W seats which the 767s never got). Depending on how fast vacation demand to Europe comes back, AA might have to think long and hard about its PHL strategy as a European hub.

The 772 is going to be way too big a plane for a lot of their routes, so I can see that being relegated to LHR, CDG, HKG, HND, SYD, and some cargo routes that require a 77W. I think SEA-BLR will happen, mainly because they need to try some long and skinny routes to justify the 789s, otherwise they'll just end up flying them to CUN. The trick is not running into the trap Delta ran into in SEA -- it's geographically convenient for Asia, but folks from LAX and SFO, who are most of the passengers that you are going to connect through SEA, have several non-stop options, or will fly JL/NH/CX with a connection in Asia.
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Old Apr 22, 20, 4:38 am
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I think any route that AA was going to launch will be gone.. along with cuts to international cities that had multiple flights a day .
I feel frequency of flights will see major reductions.
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Old Apr 22, 20, 6:42 am
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Yesterday my MIA/LAX flight was full in F with an upgrade list (no crew in F) and about half full in Y. Travel is beginning to rebound a little but the airlines will keep capacity very tight because they are going to want high load factors. FAs also said they are starting to see more paxs on planes. When AA reduced MIA/LAX to 1 x 2 daily flights are going to soon be packed to the gills.
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Old Apr 22, 20, 8:23 am
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Originally Posted by MiamiAirport Formerly NY George View Post
Certainly the summer International travel season is toast.
I am holding out hope!
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