EXP100

You are probably onto something. On the surface AA was giving away sticker income but in fact it's a forced incentive to pay an upgrade fee to guarantee an upgrade and those down the list this is the only way they're going to get upgraded.

ER-One

I flew DFW-ORD back in May. I realize that this is an elite-heavy route, but there were ~55 people on the list. They were offering TOD to me (everyone??) for $200 until about a few days before. If I'm a Gold, and I'm 55 on the list, maybe $200 is an ok value prop for an actual F seat, versus maybe getting one for $80.

I feel like these are the routes that will crush CK/EXP upgrades, whereas on a non-hub-to-hub a Gold may be ok with #5 on the list and hoping for the best.

IADCAflyer

And hakuna matata, upgraded on an actual A319. Whoda thought....

carlosdca

Who knows why.
They want to sell the seat for $800+
Now that you have your Y ticket and since you are elite, they rather have you pay for the upgrade than giving it to you for free (if you get it.
Also the $242 do not earn LPs, all earnings are as per the original ticket.

In my case, I am being offered $484 to upgrade JFK-LAX to J. But if I do a ticket change, it is $412. I decided to change the ticket.

VegasGambler

Elite discount? Seems unlikely. I'll bet they will offer this to anyone regardless of status.

SFflyer20

yup, I did this for an upcoming flight traveling with a companion. The cost of the upgrade for him ($90) was actually less than it would have been to buy more stickers ($120). Now I also had to pay $90 for myself, so I'm still out $60, but that seemed decent for a guaranteed upgrade for 2 people.

LlamaJesus

Interestingly, $242 is the offer for two separate PHL-LAX flights my SO and I are on in the next few days (we each fly out the same day but my SO is on an earlier flight) where F seems to have very good availability (prices were somewhat similar to the EWR-PHX fares you posted, IIRC main cabin was ~$430 and F was ~$800). Somewhat random number (at least it seems that way to me) but I wonder if it's the lowest rate the algorithm will offer for (non-321T) transcon flights. Also, I don't think that elite status is relevant since my SO doesn't have status but I do (but I also want to note that we were on the same PNR until I had AA split it so my SO could fly out earlier, so who knows what the algorithm is seeing/thinking).

Curious if anyone has seen lower than $242 for a transcon. A quick search of this thread didn't turn anything up, while post 470 says they were offered $240 for PHL-LAX, which is effectively the same (and I suspect it was actually $242).

PowerLu

Flying ORD-MIA next week

• 5 J seats open.
• They've been offering paid upgrades for weeks, at $297, $242, $209, and now down to $146. That's cheap, but still no takers yet it seems.
• This route would've cost 4 stickers, so the offer is less than upgrades used to be ($160 for stickers).
• Y is fairly full and almost all MCE seats are taken, so if anyone takes the offer, bye bye upgrades.
• I'm EXP and waiting it out but am worried b/c I have a companion too -- not happy about the lowball offer.

EXP100

Remember that seat map means nothing. At T-100 I will see 6 or 7 seats unoccupied on a flight, not get upgraded and eventually find out F is already booked full even before upgrades have cleared. Take the $146 offer it F is worth it to you for that flight.

PowerLu

T-6 days and they've sold 3 of the 5 J seats, so only 2 left now. Upgrade offer is still low at $170. So frustrating, what's the point of being EXP if I need to buy upgrade offers to have a real chance at F on a mid-week unpopular route. I might as well have no status at all.

VegasGambler

Are you talking about J inventory or seats?

PowerLu

J inventory for purchase, as we all already know the seat map is irrelevant. Down to 2 J and offer was just lowered to $150 lame

EXP100

My hunch the app upgrade offers are conditioning us and preparing us for a day in which to upgrade as an elite you will pay a fee and they will no longer be complimentary. Given the number of times the F cabin seems to be sold out or nearly sold out at the T-100 window clearly AA has no shortage of willing takers.

hawkfan7314

Doesn't make sense though, the reason people chase elite status is for the benefits. If the benefit of upgrading for "free" doesn't exist anymore then that takes away a huge benefit from the program. Elites would then just fly whatever is cheapest and pay the TOD upgrade if it happens to be on AA.

VegasGambler

You mean, like, with upgrade stickers? They seem to be moving in the opposite direction.