EXP100

OTH airlines will be able to better monetize the premium cabins. Elites seem to think that airline management is still fawning over us. They're not. They're more interested in pushing credit cards on flyers because that's where the real profit is. People will still have loyalty to a certain extent, particularly for award mileage earning. But the airlines no longer consider their elites the pearls they once were. Just look at AA. How many times do you get a PDB in F?

PowerLu

I completely agree with this statement, but I also agree with VegasGambler that they're moving away from paid upgrades. It seems like they are just being short sighted, leveraging their prior elite structure to lure people in with credit card spend, but really devaluing the program in the long run. Personally, all they are conditioning me to do is to go for Platinum next time so I have some basic benefits (MCE and oneworld benefits), but stop there. The big devaluation really seems to be happening at the higher tiers, and we are noticing it.

FYI- 2 J still open, but they keep going down in price for paid upgrade, currently down to $140 at T-5 days.

EXP100

Face it elite systems are moving more towards cc spend-because for that's where the money is. As noted in previous threads trying to reach EXP from this year on without being an EXP to begin with and no cc spend will be very expensive. That's part of the goal. Dilute elite benefits, create more credit card churn and monetize the premium cabins. It's happening in "slow motion."

platbrownguy

Assuming you're looking at AA2013 on July 6, it's an interesting seat map -- 3 seats open in the reclining exit row (17) and all seats open in 16, so perhaps there aren't a bunch of EXPs completing with you. Personally with a companion I would pay the $140 each now to snag the last two seats rather than waiting. I don't really get the problem with the upgrade offers either -- it's not like the F cabin is necessarily filling up only with people buying upgrade offers... there are plenty of folks who buy F tickets within the week before travel. That to me is the bigger risk of waiting -- someone might just buy one of the two remaining seats between now and tomorrow morning and then you know there's no chance of an upgrade.

But I suppose you're waiting until T-100 to see if you'll clear, and then you'll pay for the upgrade if you don't clear (assuming it's still available)? (Or are you willing to fly Y, unlike me?)

VegasGambler

But they are adding elite benefits, not diluting them. Companion upgrades will soon be free. That's a huge benefit.

ChurnieEls

I have to kind of lol at you thinking ORD-MIA would be an unpopular route!

Fwiw I think $140-170 is very fair for that length of flight - I do get where you're coming from though, that which was previously free is now attracting a charge. I think even at EXP level upgrades are now more of a bonus than a given (certainly as a PLT that's my perspective), which from a business perspective makes sense to me because I don't think business travel will come back to pre-pandemic levels which means the US3 are less inclined to pander to that demo and are pushing for status to reflect engagement in the wider AA ecosystem, which again makes total sense to me as a member of a younger generation. I actually kind of applaud AA for a somewhat innovative approach to rebooting their loyalty program.

PHL

Let's not fool ourselves into thinking they're throwing us a bone. The calculus on this move was more about selling as many TOD upgrades as possible to the point that 90%+ of the time there won't be more than a seat or two left for CKs and EXPs (and their companions) to go to battle for at the gate. Once the 500 milers are converted to LPs and companion upgrades are comp'd for all elites, I'd like to see a thread that tracks how this new "benefit' is working out for everyone.

Case in point:
I'm flying to MCO in a few weeks. 3 days ago I got an EF alert that C inventory opened up since I was potentially going to burn some BXP1's that will expire soon. When I checked EF, sure enough my flight had C7(using awards&upgrades search), along with several others after it on the same day. They were all C0 when I set the alert just a few weeks earlier. Then I looked at the seat map and it was wide open. The buy-up offer has been $161 for several months since the ticket was purchased. Today, my flight is back to C0(others after it still C7), seat map is still empty and the $161 offer is still in my reservation. I re-activated the alert because I'm betting dollars to donuts they will open up again as long as the cabin remains empty.

What this means for the elite/comp upgrades is that AA really will do everything in its power to sell them or entice people into burning instruments/miles/copays.

platbrownguy

so, did you make the free upgrade? I'm also flying Wednesday, looks like your flight went up to J3 before the window and now is J1... did you get lucky?

PowerLu

Nope, no upgrade for me. I believe those were sold, not upgrades (I can only speculate here, but I saw no MCE seats free up at time of upgrade).

So, I changed to a later flight (actual change not SDC) because I got some money back and because the later flight had J-4 at T-2 so I though I'd try my luck there. However, that's now down to J-1 so I'm also not going to get it. Buy-up offer was $154 on the new flight, and these also appear to have been sold because I also saw no change in the MCE seatmap.

I'm now 0/5 since reaching EXP earlier this year, total crap. Routes were ORD-SEA, PHX, and now MIA. Oh, and my return is already J-2 now so I'm not getting that either.

Meanwhile, my friend flying the same route (we're meeting there, he refuses to fly AA) just got his upgrade on United being Premier Gold. So, he's having a nice laugh because he hates AA and maybe he has a point. I do get that I have a companion and he doesn't but man does this fact sting.

So, is the conclusion here that United Gold > AA EXP ?

I might just give up and match over to United next year and see, which I can do through my company partnership.

platbrownguy

All else equal, of course not.
If you're flying hub to hub on AA? Versus regional randoms on UA? Then sure.

Too bad you didn't get the upgrade, I do think it's tough with a companion especially on legs like ORD-MIA.

ORDflyer92

Still seeing some incredibly cheap upgrade fares, some on very desirable routes. I currently have $353 on MIA-LIM and $301 on the return. For a six hour flight, I think that's a reasonable as it gets.

Also seeing $135 on my IND-MIA leg, albeit on a 737.

PowerLu

The problem isn't me not getting the upgrade, I'm actually very ok with that, it's no one getting it because, as ORDflyer92 put it, these offers are incredibly "reasonable" so seats are just being sold. If I have to buy up myself, then Exp's main benefit is worthless.

VegasGambler

No, the conclusion is that you don't have anywhere near enough data to make a conclusion.

I'm 4/6 this year as EXP. Many other posters have reported 80%, 90%, or higher. It very much depends on the route. Both load, as well as how likely a passenger is to actually pay for F. Buying cheap fares usually helps (fares tend to be cheaper when they expect loads to be lower; of you are flexible enough to book those then you pay less for your ticket and you get upgraded)

njvandy

I have a $97 offer for DEN-ORD next week that I will likely pull the trigger on. As a Plat, it's unlikely I would clear the upgrade in any case. I feel bad for the CK or EXP who isn't gonna get the seat...

Edited to add: I just bought it. EF was showing J2 beforehand and J1 now. Seat map also indicates only one open in F. Pretty crazy that they charged me considerably less than I would have paid a few months ago using 500 mile stickers, not that a lower tier elite would clear anyway.

chicago747

Flying ORD-DCA tomorrow and have been offered a $97 upgrade for the last few weeks. Only 2 seats were taken going into the upgrade window so figured I'd roll the dice. It was J6 going into T24 and still showed the $97 offer. Ended up getting upgraded as a lowly Gold.

If my flight was a meal flight, like the ORD-DEN above, I would have taken it in a second for the $97. But I kinda had a feeling it was going to clear.