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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Mar 12, 2019, 12:03 pm
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see

American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?

13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through...
“Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 20, 2019, 10:15 pm
  #631  
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Originally Posted by bchandler02
One thing I wonder - AA purchased all the options - UA and others didn't. As part of the re-certification process, will all airlines be required to update to the full safety package - and if so, does this help with simulator availability as AA pilots with planes ready to fly would take priority over UA pilots that are still waiting on modifications. Perhaps the simulator concern isn't as big of a deal as some are making it out to be.
ALL existing 737 MAX aircraft would be retrofitted gratis by Boeing, as I understand it, and all new builds will have these items included.

The simulator issue will depend on whether it’s required in the Airworthiness Directive note issued by the certifying agencies and the airlines. Possibly this could be a bone of contention between pilots or their unions and airlines. See Boeing 737 Max Simulators Are in High Demand. They Are Flawed, By Natalie Kitroeff, NY Times, May 17, 2019. Link.

In the end, I suspect “who will fly first” will at least partly depend on

1) installation and testing of the MCAS software update, AoA indicators and disagree warnings,

2) the necessary “de-mothballing” ground preparation to make them airworthy

3) pilots prepared for flying these.

There will be more that needs doing, vetting and final approval, including the new operating manual updates and training - in whatever form that will be, iPad, sim, etc.

The recertifications / AD notes from a bunch of national and regional agencies could be challenging, because it’s feasible say CAAC is directed to refrain or stall because of tariff and trade issues.

,
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Old Jun 21, 2019, 1:14 pm
  #632  
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Airbus vows to compete for the IAG order:

Airbus to Challenge Secret Boeing 737 Deal that Stunned Paris Air Show Fortune

Interesting info that IAG plans to use the Max for "for its discount and leisure divisions, including Vueling and Level".... you know, where human life is cheap, and poor customers don't have much of a choice risking their lives on the tainted aircraft for a cheap ticket.

So this is how IAG plans to protect the main brands, with BA, IB and OW keeping the good equipment, and the plebs getting the Max.

Last edited by nk15; Jun 21, 2019 at 1:23 pm
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Old Jun 21, 2019, 3:16 pm
  #633  
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Originally Posted by nk15
Airbus vows to compete for the IAG order:

Airbus to Challenge Secret Boeing 737 Deal that Stunned Paris Air Show Fortune

Interesting info that IAG plans to use the Max for "for its discount and leisure divisions, including Vueling and Level".... you know, where human life is cheap, and poor customers don't have much of a choice risking their lives on the tainted aircraft for a cheap ticket.

So this is how IAG plans to protect the main brands, with BA, IB and OW keeping the good equipment, and the plebs getting the Max.
What an amazingly hyperbolic statement that seems. There’s no indication I’ve ever seen that Vueling or Level are unsafe. Perhaps you can enlighten us with some references.

Didn’t Willie Walsh say “Gatwick”? And IAG says on the London Stock Exchange that the 737s (if firmed up) would be destined for "Vueling, LEVEL plus British Airways at London Gatwick airport." So, British Airways is intended to get these as well. And Willie Walsh, who has been an ATP, has 15 years of flying the 737, so I don’t think he was looking for an unsafe aircraft.

Though as the IAG only signed a LOI, they might be trolling for a counter offer with better pricing from Airbus - because, it’s Willie Walsh.
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Old Jun 21, 2019, 3:20 pm
  #634  
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Originally Posted by JDiver
What an amazingly hyperbolic statement that seems. There’s no indication I’ve ever seen that Vueling or Level are unsafe. Perhaps you can enlighten us with some references.
I don’t think anyone is saying that either are currently unsafe, only they’re carrying the traditionally more price sensitive customer base of IAG. Then again, when you sell airfares overly cheap, I guess you have to make up for it by dumpster-diving for new aircraft.
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Old Jun 21, 2019, 5:16 pm
  #635  
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Originally Posted by cmd320
I don’t think anyone is saying that either are currently unsafe, only they’re carrying the traditionally more price sensitive customer base of IAG. Then again, when you sell airfares overly cheap, I guess you have to make up for it by dumpster-diving for new aircraft.
Yes, that's what I meant...Interesting that these planes will go mostly, if not only, on the vacation and bargain fare routes, where consumers may be less aware or concerned about what aircraft they are flying on as opposed to the fare price...
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Old Jun 21, 2019, 6:42 pm
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This thread has given me a good laugh. These planes will get back into service and they'll fly safely for many years, there's no reason to think otherwise.
I'd bet that 95% of the passengers on an AA flight have no idea what they're even flying on; much less a new variant of a legacy airframe.
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Old Jun 21, 2019, 7:02 pm
  #637  
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Originally Posted by reeg2
I'd bet that 95% of the passengers on an AA flight have no idea what they're even flying on; much less a new variant of a legacy airframe.
In 1979 when DC-10s were falling from the sky, this may have been true. With today's technology, all it will take is one "influencer" to post something about being on a 737MAX and millions will know it's back in service and to avoid it.
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 9:46 pm
  #638  
 
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American Airlines CEO says politics a factor in return of Boeing's 737 Max
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Old Jun 26, 2019, 7:05 pm
  #639  
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https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/stor...9-83BE6209F817

New flight control issue, a microprocessor fault.

See ya in 2020, MAX. Maybe.
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Old Jun 26, 2019, 8:30 pm
  #640  
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Originally Posted by spongenotbob
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/stor...9-83BE6209F817

New flight control issue, a microprocessor fault.

See ya in 2020, MAX. Maybe.
FAA pilots find new flaw in plane’s software system during flight simulator
This time, the system worked as it should have, but didn’t, with MCAS using input from only one of two AoA indicators, for example.
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Old Jun 27, 2019, 10:39 pm
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The Wall Street Journal is now reporting that it will be September or October at the earliest before Boeing submits a final version of the software fix to the FAA which could address the latest flight-control problem that has surfaced. Per the Journal," industry and government officials envision it probably would take a minimum of two more months to win official FAA approval, reach consensus on the extent of extra pilot training and have airlines perform the necessary maintenance checks and procedures."

Looking like 2020 for the reappearance of this MAX bird.
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Old Jun 27, 2019, 10:45 pm
  #642  
 
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I am wondering what Doug parker is thinking now? Also those who say 100% certainly that 737max will be operating in 2019 again!
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Old Jun 27, 2019, 10:53 pm
  #643  
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Submission of everything including recertification request could occur in September, according to some recent statements from Boeing. It’s possible approval and demothballing, etc. could occur by the Thanksgiving peak demand, but I’d not bet on it. It’s not just the FAA - the CAAC, CASA, TCCAA, CAAs, EASA, DGCA, etc. will likely choose not to just rubber stamp the FAA this time. That will certainly be because of the system failure approving unripe and faulty MCAS, inadequate documentation and training, etc. but may also involve political issues in the era of burgeoning tariff tit for tats. China, India, etc. might prove more balky than we might think. Or not.
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Old Jun 28, 2019, 9:21 am
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Would AA have to wait for every aviation regulatory agency under the sun to certify the software fix, or just start flying the planes again domestically once it receives FAA approval and goes through the steps necessary for the return to flight?
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Old Jun 28, 2019, 9:36 am
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Originally Posted by AndyAA
Would AA have to wait for every aviation regulatory agency under the sun to certify the software fix, or just start flying the planes again domestically once it receives FAA approval and goes through the steps necessary for the return to flight?
I don't think AA would need anyone except the FAA to approve it to fly domestically. That said, I think Boeing would like to get approval from at least the US, Canada, and Europe simultaneously.
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