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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Mar 12, 2019, 12:03 pm
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see

American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?

13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through...
“Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old May 16, 2019, 10:00 am
  #586  
 
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Not to add controversy, but merely an observation. Often times as I walk on an airplane the AOA sensor is close enough I could grab it, just as the Pitot tube is easy to touch on a small airplane. I've for years wondered how many kids or even adults do dumb things such as grab that, or if the jet bridge isn't located properly and hits it. This is only the Port side, but I guess the catering truck could mistakenly hit it on the Starboard side, after all, we aren't talking about flight engineers handling things.

I don't think Boeing ever planned for the MCAS system to be a problem, and despite the 60 minutes Australia video I think they had the best of intentions. Those suggesting that its simply pilot error, they must not have the training, hours of USA pilots, shame on them, etc., have never been in a situation as a pilot close to the ground, with only a few seconds to recover, not open a checklist. I have and used instincts and thankfully still alive when the airplane I was once flying did something it shouldn't have done. But comparing a slow Cessna doing something unexpected to a 737 is like comparing a model T to a new McLaren, apples and oranges. Either way, close to the ground isn't a good time to open a book and check the list, you're already too far into problems at that point. Watching how fast that trim wheel moves if MCAS engages scares the hell out of me, as even disengaging the trim and manually moving it back would take forever with the human hand, assuming you caught the problem within 1-3 seconds.

I love technology in both new airplanes and even new cars, but both do things unexpected at times, and can create new problems. My wife's car has the collision avoidance system that will automatically brake if it thinks something bad is happening, which is great, until it misbehaves with let's say bad weather. Thankfully the manufacturer didn't hide that feature from me. After two experiences with it doing things it shouldn't have, it's the first thing I disable when I drive her car. It's not anything wrong with her car, it's the nature of the beast with things like this. Probably great for new drivers, but something that I don't agree with for me. Thankfully I was aware of the feature, not blindsided as Boeing tried to do.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:09 pm
  #587  
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Boeing’s role aside, it apparently does have to do with pilot training, too.

The Lion Air MAX apparently had a malfunctioning angle of attack sensor the day before it crashed, but when it began the altitude excursions a deadheading pilot riding in the cockpit jump seat figured out what was happening and told the pilots flying how to correct the unexpected excursions. Link to Bloomberg article

The AoA sensor was apparently griped to maintenance, but it’s unclear what maintenance may have done - or not. Why that PNF knew (and why the others didn’t) is a good question.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 2:52 pm
  #588  
 
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Send the 737 Maxs to the desert

Dear American Airlines,

I am a loyal AA 3 million miler and EXP member and have been with AA for the past 26 years. I write to ask that AA not bring the 737 Max back on line or anything rebranded from the same frame. I fly a LOT and have consulted with numerous pilots and am convinced that flying the 737 Max or any variant is not safe. I would ask that AA send it’s 737 Maxs to the desert 🌵 and not buy any of the rebranded variants. Also, if that does not happen, allow passengers to opt out systemically or flying the Max (or any other variants). Thank you.

MKTOZD
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 3:32 pm
  #589  
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Originally Posted by mktozd
Dear American Airlines,

I am a loyal AA 3 million miler and EXP member and have been with AA for the past 26 years. I write to ask that AA not bring the 737 Max back on line or anything rebranded from the same frame. I fly a LOT and have consulted with numerous pilots and am convinced that flying the 737 Max or any variant is not safe. I would ask that AA send it’s 737 Maxs to the desert �� and not buy any of the rebranded variants. Also, if that does not happen, allow passengers to opt out systemically or flying the Max (or any other variants). Thank you.

MKTOZD
Ain’t gonna happen, I speculate.

AA uniquely (or close to it) purchased both the “optional” Angle of Attack indicator for the primary flight display as well as the AoA disagree warning, which other airlines (notably Lion and Ethiopian, but also UA) did not. These will no longer be optional, from what appears to be coming together. The revised operating manual and training are also in the works.

Ultimately, this will all go forth for approval to the world’s aviation safety agencies (including, but not limited to, the US FAA) for review and, presumably, approval. Among them, notably,

Directorate of General of Civil Aviation (India)
Civil Aviation Authority (United Kingdom)
Civil Aviation Authority of Indonesia (Inconesia)
Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government (Australia)
European Aviation Safety Agency (European Union)
Federal Aviation Administration (United States) (under lots of scrutiny)
Irish Aviation Authority (Ireland)
Ministry of Transport and Communications - Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority (Ethiopia)
Transport Canada (Canada)

etc.

I’ll be fine if all these, including those unmentioned, and the pilots, sign off on the 7M8.

AA currently has 24 of them, representing a current combined value of ~$3 billion (~$126 million per hull), with 76 more on order. Some of those may be cancellable, or the airlines may try to cancel via court action or the like if they feel so inclined, but I’m not thinking AA will choose the latter.

AA has dealt with parallel situations, notably the Lockheed L188 Electra (which they renamed “Electra II” after the aircraft were modified so the wings wouldn’t separate in “whirl mode), and the DC-10 (though the AA incidents weren’t due to the baggage door design, the inherent design flaws of the empennage control cables did influence AA DC-10 incidents, as did the off-schedule ad hoc maintenance of engine and pylon removal).AA flew DC-10-10s and -30s for years after.

I imagine AA will be lenient about rebooking passengers wanting to avoid flying on 3M8s, at least for a while, as a PR gesture (I hope they do, as if you believe there’s a 7M8 unrepairable flaw you shouldn’t be forced to fly it) - but that’s speculation on my part. (No worries about variants, as AFAIK AA has no designs on -9s (the variant UA purchased - sans AoA Indicator or disagree warning, though I suspect they’ll both be retrofitted before they get recertified to fly).
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Last edited by JDiver; Jun 18, 2019 at 2:31 am
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 5:53 pm
  #590  
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I agree. They should cancel the remaining orders and convert the 24 existing maxes into hotels and airbnbs. They can build a whole village of the 24 737 max converted hotels, it will be a cool attraction, either in the desert, or by the beach... . They can name the new retreat "Boeing's sin" or "When Dennis met Doug", or something cool like that...
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 5:56 pm
  #591  
 
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Meh, it'll be safe when it comes back. And given people's stated desire to book away from them (though I doubt it will actually materialize), the upgrade should be easy for the short term.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 5:59 pm
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Originally Posted by nk15
I agree. They should cancel the remaining orders and convert the 24 existing maxes into hotels and airbnbs. They can build a whole village of the 24 737 max converted hotels, it will be a cool attraction, either in the desert, or by the beach... . They can name the new retreat "Boeing's sin" or "When Dennis met Doug", or something cool like that...
LOL. Clever—although I think the 737 MAX's were originally ordered when Tom Horton was CEO.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 6:02 pm
  #593  
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Originally Posted by flyingeph12
LOL. Clever—although I think the 737 MAX's were originally ordered when Tom Horton was CEO.
True, but Dennis handled the recent debacle with the crashes and fought to keep it in the air...
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 6:07 pm
  #594  
 
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Originally Posted by iadisgreat
Meh, it'll be safe when it comes back. And given people's stated desire to book away from them (though I doubt it will actually materialize), the upgrade should be easy for the short term.
Well, Boeing and FAA (as well as many here) were saying the plane was safe the day after the ET crash.

Even if I agreed with you that the plane will be safe, I think there will always be a (irrational) part of my mind that will be a little worried when stepping on a 7M8. I remember feeling nervous stepping on a plane the day after the Malaysia 777 disappeared, as well as the week after the second 7M8 crash, even though logically I knew I shouldn't have been. If it won't cost me much to avoid the 7M8 in the future, I think I will.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 6:07 pm
  #595  
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Originally Posted by iadisgreat
Meh, it'll be safe when it comes back. And given people's stated desire to book away from them (though I doubt it will actually materialize), the upgrade should be easy for the short term.
You mean an upgrade to the F seats that are worse than MCE on an A321?
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 6:20 pm
  #596  
 
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Originally Posted by cmd320
You mean an upgrade to the F seats that are worse than MCE on an A321?
I have broad shoulders (fit build) and am 5'11". I'd much rather the shoulder room than "unlimited" legroom any time. There is nothing more uncomfortable than leaning to the side or interlocking shoulders with strangers for hours.

Which is not to say I don't want leg room, but I value the width space more than length at the moment.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 6:55 pm
  #597  
 
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Originally Posted by mktozd
Dear American Airlines,

I am a loyal AA 3 million miler and EXP member and have been with AA for the past 26 years. I write to ask that AA not bring the 737 Max back on line or anything rebranded from the same frame. I fly a LOT and have consulted with numerous pilots and am convinced that flying the 737 Max or any variant is not safe. I would ask that AA send it’s 737 Maxs to the desert �� and not buy any of the rebranded variants. Also, if that does not happen, allow passengers to opt out systemically or flying the Max (or any other variants). Thank you.

MKTOZD


Agree with your message. The MCAS system only came about to work around a defective design. Many new articles mentioning the original lead test pilot and issues he had. The issue is poor flying characteristics having nothing to do with the sensors, or lack of dual sensors.

My concern is if Boeing continues to build these (only 350 now) and builds up to 4,000 of them, what happens it there is another crash or two.
Another crash, in my view, would permanently ground the aircraft. The more they build the bigger potential loss.

Boeing should likely split the company and go bankrupt with the 737 line. Then re-emerge with a totally new single aisle aircraft. They should push 787's for domestic use on high volume routes. We used to have DC-10s and 747s on mid and transcons years back.

I will be avoiding the Max as well.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 7:00 pm
  #598  
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That Australian 60 Minutes piece was eye opening.
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Old Jun 17, 2019, 8:21 pm
  #599  
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I am telling you, the original "low-to-the-ground" design problem of the 737 that's at the bottom of all the Max issues, is what it would make it an excellent converted hotel...

Plus all the frames are still brand new, and with excellent name recognition...only the lavs are a little tight, I am hearing...
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Old Jun 18, 2019, 9:48 am
  #600  
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IAG (BA, EI, IB, etc.) has just announced an order for 200 Boeing 737 MAX 8,9 and 10 at the Paris Air Show.

CEO Willie Walsh, who flew Boeing 737s fifteen years, stated his confidence in the revised MAX aircraft.

”We’re very pleased to sign this letter of intent with Boeing and are certain that these aircraft will be a great addition to IAG’s short-haul fleet,” said Willie Walsh, the IAG Chief Executive who placed hope into the 737 MAX program, which is struggling through the worst time in Boeing’s history.

“We have every confidence in Boeing and expect that the aircraft will make a successful return to service in the coming months having received approval from the regulators”, he added.

...

Commenting on the Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), the system that caused the two aircraft to crash, Walsh, who is a Boeing 737 rated pilot, offered confidence even into this system.

“I have been in a flight simulator and seen MCAS in operation. It gave me confidence in the aircraft. Its important regulators have time to consider changes. I am confident in Boeing and what they have proposed with the Boeing 737 MAX”.

- Willie Walsh, quoted in Airways Magazine today link
Also IAG signs LOI for 200 Boeing MAX 8-10 @ Paris PAS19
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