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-   -   Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1883276-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2018-master-thread.html)

JJeffrey Sep 1, 2018 6:12 am


Originally Posted by nismo240ssx (Post 30154732)
I'm a bit confused as to the order and scanned a few pages of this thread. Can someone clarify the prioroty: As an EXP does an award ticket get upgraded after all paid tickets (Exp Pp... Gold) or after the Exp paid tickets? If the former it seems quite rare.

An EXP on an award ticket is behind CK/EXPs on paid tickets, but still ahead of all other elite groups.

dayone Sep 1, 2018 9:49 am


Originally Posted by HNL (Post 30154331)
The Patented Up-Check™ App puts the odds at 4.29%

Good to see that Up-Check™ is staying current with an app. :)

Zeffer Sep 1, 2018 3:32 pm

Help: Best time of day for BOS-LAX & LAX-HNL?
 
Wondering if a wise mind can help?

I’m Plat Pro but live in Australia so I have no experience of domestic upgrade odds, last-minute J demand, or general load factors on these routes.

Two of us are traveling with one-year old lap infants, so the upgrade makes a HUGE difference. Need to book BOS-LAX midweek — Tue, Wed or Thu, Oct 23-25 — and LAX-HNL on Fri, Sat or Sun, Oct 25-27. Can take any day or flight time. Just want to maximize chances of at least one of us clearing.

My intuition tells me Wednesday evening might be a solid bet for the transcon (or Wed morning?) and Saturday evening might be best for Hawaii. My eyes don’t detect a consistent pattern on Expertflyer, but yours might.

a) does a lap infant decrease my chances?
b) any experience with what time of day clears best for Boston to LA?
c) is LA to Honolulu a good bet, as a leisure route? Would OGG be better? When do elites leave for vacation, and when shouldn’t I?

Any help appreciated. Thanks!

nismo240ssx Sep 2, 2018 10:48 am


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 30155208)
An EXP on an award ticket is behind CK/EXPs on paid tickets, but still ahead of all other elite groups.


Originally Posted by nismo240ssx (Post 30154732)
I'm a bit confused as to the order and scanned a few pages of this thread. Can someone clarify the prioroty: As an EXP does an award ticket get upgraded after all paid tickets (Exp Pp... Gold) or after the Exp paid tickets? If the former it seems quite rare.

thanks. That's great!

BOSishome Sep 2, 2018 11:42 am


Originally Posted by Zeffer (Post 30156639)
Wondering if a wise mind can help?

I’m Plat Pro but live in Australia so I have no experience of domestic upgrade odds, last-minute J demand, or general load factors on these routes.

Two of us are traveling with one-year old lap infants, so the upgrade makes a HUGE difference. Need to book BOS-LAX midweek — Tue, Wed or Thu, Oct 23-25 — and LAX-HNL on Fri, Sat or Sun, Oct 25-27. Can take any day or flight time. Just want to maximize chances of at least one of us clearing.

My intuition tells me Wednesday evening might be a solid bet for the transcon (or Wed morning?) and Saturday evening might be best for Hawaii. My eyes don’t detect a consistent pattern on Expertflyer, but yours might.

a) does a lap infant decrease my chances?
b) any experience with what time of day clears best for Boston to LA?
c) is LA to Honolulu a good bet, as a leisure route? Would OGG be better? When do elites leave for vacation, and when shouldn’t I?

Any help appreciated. Thanks!


I can’t speak to the LAX-HNL part of the question, but I can tell you that even off-peak, BOS-LAX is a nearly impossible upgrade if you aren’t a very high spend EXP or CK... Lots of paid F on that route in addition to a high elite concentration.

Of any of them, the 12:28 P.M. and 2:52 P.M. flights are probably your best chances with Wednesday being the best day.

HLCinCOU Sep 3, 2018 4:30 pm


Originally Posted by TSparky (Post 30002102)
EXP with 30k EQD
DFW-IND was showing 13 or 16 seats available but didn't clear until t-22h
DFW-LAX I was 3 of 37 and didn't clear - 789 is always a tough upgrade on this route. I'm lucky to clear 1 in 5.

Hehe, yeah that's cause guys like me (18k EXP) figure we're hosed otherwise and shell out the $75/15k to jump you on the list ;-) I pulled that move successfully twice this year on that LAX-DFW route. Pretty much any mid- or transcon with a lie-flat I'll go ahead and ask for the miles/copay waitlist right after I book.

HLCinCOU Sep 3, 2018 5:34 pm


Originally Posted by Emadissi (Post 30014696)
No status, a family member requested mileage upgrades for me for a PEK-LAX-BOS flight three months ago. LAX-BOS cleared immediately, the PEK-LAX leg cleared now at about a week before for me. There are at least 15 seats still available in J, so I guess they decided I'd waited enough?

Wait, am I reading this right? I can request miles/copay upgrades based on my status for friends who don't hold status, who aren't on the same PNR as me? Are you sure?

Originally Posted by kahdgar (Post 30015061)
AA Gold, DCA->TPA, MIA, CLT, DFW and vice versa have never cleared. Probably a function of DCA elite load.

Probably a function of being AA Gold. I can't think of a route where clearing as GLD isn't a long shot.

Originally Posted by beachfan (Post 30050857)
I sometimes put my seat on "seat alert" in EF, so when I'm upgraded, I can change seats if desired.

This is brilliant. Going over to EF to put these in on my LAX-AKL rt now. Thanks.

Originally Posted by enviroian (Post 30115064)
I'm flying to ORD today on the 12:40 flight. I'm number 11 on the list for upgrades as an $18K EQD EXP. Two years ago I would have cleared this flight 3 days out, no problem just about every time.

Sounds like you always book well in advance, and thus benefited from the old system where the list was ordered by booking time. I'm right at your level of spend, but usually book very late; my upgrade success doubled when they changed to EQD. Currently at ~82% for the year.

JJeffrey Sep 4, 2018 5:59 am


Originally Posted by HLCinCOU (Post 30163415)
Wait, am I reading this right? I can request miles/copay upgrades based on my status for friends who don't hold status, who aren't on the same PNR as me? Are you sure?

You can request a miles/copay upgrade for anyone really (with the miles pulled from your account). If you're not traveling together then the waitlist position will always be based on the status of the passenger, not the person who's account the miles are pulled from (nothing in the previous post indicated the passenger inherited the gifter's status, just that the upgrades cleared).

econometrics Sep 4, 2018 8:11 am


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 30165021)
You can request a miles/copay upgrade for anyone really (with the miles pulled from your account). If you're not traveling together then the waitlist position will always be based on the status of the passenger, not the person who's account the miles are pulled from (nothing in the previous post indicated the passenger inherited the gifter's status, just that the upgrades cleared).

Unless you are on the same flight, then you can designate your status to them:

https://www.aa.com/i18n/aadvantage-p...am-updates.jsp

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...ay-2018-a.html

Green_eyes Sep 4, 2018 9:11 am

How do you check a particular flight upgrade waitlist? Interested to know about Oct 13 DFW-HKG and Oct 20 HKG-DFW

econometrics Sep 4, 2018 9:21 am


Originally Posted by Green_eyes (Post 30165790)
How do you check a particular flight upgrade waitlist? Interested to know about Oct 13 DFW-HKG and Oct 20 HKG-DFW

It's not possible to check your status on the waitlist.

Green_eyes Sep 4, 2018 9:24 am


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 30165822)
It's not possible to check your status on the waitlist.

Is it possible to see how many swu's requested for that flight?

lds89 Sep 4, 2018 9:33 am


Originally Posted by Green_eyes (Post 30165834)
Is it possible to see how many swu's requested for that flight?

No. AA is a lot less transparent about these lists than UA or DL. You won't be able to see the list (and your position on it) until T-4 hours

A friendly AAgent on the phone line or in the club may be able to give you an idea of how it's looking but I've never seen them tell me straight up how many are in front of me.

VickiSoCal Sep 4, 2018 12:13 pm

Planning to go to Toyko for Thanksgiving. No SWUs available for last 5 months I've been monitoring. Seats occupied in business to and from LA are below. Thoughts on chances if we just buy now?
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...7523290958.jpg

tphuang Sep 4, 2018 1:17 pm


Originally Posted by FlightNurse (Post 30153059)
According to EF, there are 20 seats open in J, no C inventory yet. Get yourself an EF account and set an alert when C opens up so you can call in and get upgraded.

it's great. My departure flight cleared. Now just waiting for returning flight. Still quite a lot of opening with 11 days to go.


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