Yet another data point
 

TUL-DFW 5/21. Booked 4/19. No clearance from T-100 up to T-4. I'm Number 1 on the upgrade list. I approached the GA who would be working the flight (and knows me by both name and nickname) an hour before flight time.

She checked for me, and said "I have two open in First. I can't do anything right now for you because someone may upgrade at the kiosk". (I cleared, but no one else did).

SPECULATION-That might explain why in certain situations, you can go from F7 to F1 in the time it takes to drive to the airport for your flight-The dreaded kiosk upgrade. Just one more thing to stress about (or not).

At the end of the day, with a finite number of seats, and sometimes a greater than finite number of posteriors to occupy them (UPG list for my flight yesterday was at 39), for me, it boils down to a zen-like approach: Either it will clear, or it won't. But I WILL get to my desired destination, no matter where I sit. (OTOH-Standby can be a non zen-like story :D)

So basically AA is now selling kiosk TODs before clearing the upgrade wait list.

Why aren't elites at least being offered the paid UPG at check-in? I would actually consider this option on some flights.

As has been said here many, many, many times - the word of a single agent should be taken with less than a grain of salt.

We're getting multiple reports, from multiple agents, across multiple stations systemwide though. Plus the revenue management and upgrade experiences seem to be consistent with what TODs would cause.

airport agents know absolutely nothing about revenue management and how the upgrades are handled. The system is programmed not to offer LFBU if there are elites waiting for an upgrade unless of course there are more open seats then elites waiting on the upgrade

Well then there's a major problem somewhere because AAgents are apparently holding the upgrade list to allow more time for the kiosk to offer upgrades. Either way, it's not good.

It's very puzzling and I'm seeing it happen more often. For a flight this afternoon that I booked four months ago, EF has shown F7 for several days with plenty of seats open. Five hours prior to flight, EF went to F1 and a few minutes later to F0. Now fours prior I see the upgrade list and I'm #1. It just doesn't make sense that there were 7+ EXPs or PLTs ahead of me - certainly not on this route. Possible, yes; likely, no.

But they are told what they can, and more importantly, CAN'T do.

(I was only following orders.)

I am *not* generally a conspiracy theorist, but this thread, plus

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...ails-page.html

Combined with the thread about the lack of upgrade email notifications (no idea how to link two threads in the same post) sounds a bit like they may very well have had a change in policy regarding upgrades.

I haven't run into a list where I haven't cleared this year (late in the day), but I flew quite a bit until mid-April and have been home since, so I'm only going by what's been posted here. But it sounds as though those who are waitlisted for an auto-upgrade can only get one if TOD seats remain unsold? If so, it would be great if there was a system by which those on the waitlist also had a shot at TODs. By all means, sell seats. But sell them to me, too :)

I think the UA TOD phenomenon (offers of FC seats to kettles at checkin for "Tens-Of-Dollars") is a bit of a red herring. On many of my regular business routes (DEN-IAH, DEN-PIT for example) FC seats are purchased well in advance due, I'm pretty sure, to attractive -UP fares (DEN-PIT return is generally $300 more in FC than Y, and DEN-IAH can be less than that). I've seen 739s with, say, 17/20 FC seats taken a week out and in the end ZERO folks upgraded. AA has instituted these fares as well and is probably trying to find the right price point (or is waiting for AA folks to figure out the new system).

Are those AA's version of TODs?

Not to mention hearing the GA's offer them at the gate, at least in PHX, as well as having GA's confirm that the auto upgrade requests is not actually happening despite what the reservation may say (personal experience w/both of these).

Another point of reference, the entire front cabin for my flight tomorrow is empty (as is most of the plane, btw) yet my upgrade has not cleared since the window opened on Thursday. At this point, I do not expect it to as I suspect this is another flight where I am not actually on the upgrade list, despite what the reservation says, & will not be until I get to the airport tomorrow & have an agent manually add me to the list.

Received e-mail notice of upgrade this morning for 5/27 DFW-ABQ at T-100.

...and now I'm back to getting upgrades at around the T-100 mark. Go figure.

I have seen this pattern frequently in recent months. Many F seats open until a few hours before departure, then it goes down to one. Fortunately I have always been found myself upgraded in that process, but it's clearly a change in practice. It's also somewhat annoying as there is then no way to change seats. In the case of my wife and I on the same PNR we found ourselves sitting apart after each of the upgrades.