I seem to be the counter-example on early clearing. Looks like my upgrade for DFW-YYZ tomorrow is not going to clear before the gate, if at all. I have yet to have a single upgrade clear prior to the gate this year. This is my first year as EXP, so I had hoped for better. I guess that's my lot in life for living near DFW.

And it's going to get worse with the new upgrade priority, since I'm on the lower spend side for an EXP. From watching the seat map on EP, it looks like they cleared several upgrades at T-24, but not mine.

I must run around with lucky people! In all seriousness, I am surprised myself to have cleared and know of other people that cleared. Though I guess the competition with B6 and DL helps on occasion.

In the last month, I have cleared DFW-PHL, PHL-IAH, DFW-SFO and SFO-DFW at T-100 or close to it. Just more data points.

Have been pleasantly surprised.

Tuesday night. I checked ticket availability for flights the day before for flights to NY and there were still 3-5 seats available on the last 3 flights so i felt good about my chances.

Still running at just under 39% clearance. 50 total segments, 36 eligible flights to get an upgrade and 14 total upgrades for the year. First quarter was PHX-CLT and CLT-PHX then PHX-DFW / DFW-PHX since April. Usually 4-6 on list. I'm guestimating just over $14K is EQD based on the $5 per mile equation for Aug-Dec and current.

Data point: Friday's 14:40 flight MSY-ORD cleared a little over three days before departure. Equipment is MD-80. At T-100, only five seats were empty so it looks like they're selling them.

Happy to say recently my upgrades are back to clearing at T-100 on my regular route (SMF-DFW, which I fly weekly or every other week). It used to be this way a year ago and suddenly stopped ( i think last summer/fall, can't remember). It was months of clearing at T-3.5 ish. Now I've been consistently clearing at T-100 the last 6 weeks or so, which is a great surprise after the shift to rolling EQD priority. The only time I didn't clear at T-100 was on the same PNR with my companion.

To close the loop on my DFW-YYZ round trip:

No upgrade either way. I was around 15 on the upgrade list outbound (Monday mid-day) and around 12 on return (Thursday evening). And I'm EXP, although with the new revenue-based priority, I think my hit rate is going to be worse than last year when I was a mere Platinum.

I'd venture to say that all else equal, your hit rate should improve, not get worse, with your move from PLT to EXP. Status still trumps EQD for upgrades--the latter is used to sort members within their respective status groups. So an EXP with a "low" rolling EQD amount will still be ahead of a PLT with a comparatively higher EQD amount.

Got notice that I was needed to get to OMA with 20 hrs to go before first flight departed (SFO-DFW-OMA). Ended up purchasing best tixs to fit schedule needed and fare class was K.

Arrived at SFO and wasn't on upgrade list but lost but was issued an authorization verification card. At SFO I was moved to the top of upgrade list and got the one seat available. Also got same card when Inn SFO for DFW leg and got upgrade in the same manner.

Wasnt really expecting it and was very happen that exit row exit row aisle seats were available. #ThankYouAA !

Today I received my first email from AA letting me know that I was upgraded on my flight scheduled for this coming Wednesday. Ticket was purchased this past Saturday (M fare).

I just had one clear at the window last week. Maybe they fixed something?

Some flights on that route have a ton of both US and Canadian based EXPs flying on them. It really depends on the time of day, day of week and season.

LGA to/from ORD has been much tougher since the changes. I never had an issue on this route and now I'm lucky to clear at the gate and am usually 4-5 on the list at the gate.

They did a few months ago.