cmd320

The other issue with CLT is that it must compete with JFK, MIA, PHL, and to some extent ORD and DFW for TATL flights. Of those markets, it is by far the weakest and likely most likely to see reductions. Back when US was independent, CLT was really only in competition with PHL.

ubernostrum

I know I haven't tried to argue that CLT should be a huge international hub, and I don't think anyone else has seriously tried to.

What I have repeatedly argued is simply this:

• CLT was in the pmUS system, and should continue to be in the new AA system, primarily a convenient domestic-connection hub. pmAA was desperately lacking a viable east-coast domestic hub, now has one, and it would be pure folly to de-hub it.
• CLT was never pmUS' main TATL hub; PHL was. But I think a couple of the TATLs -- particularly LHR and FRA -- make sense to keep year-round, and some of the vacation destinations make sense to continue to run seasonally, for sake of convenience (to passengers connecting) and for sake of not further overloading the already-overloaded hubs at JFK and MIA.

Fanjet

Are the only German companies with operations in the SE U.S. only located near MUC? That would seem odd. And as for the service commitments to the state of NC. Does that include international flying as well? Because if so, it seems they have already violated that by cutting the two CLT-Brazil flights.

Cltfc

the German automotive business is mainly in the se and is based in bavaria.i.e BMW and Mercedes benz. Clt-muc is really there to support mainly BMW and Mercedes plants and facilities in South Carolina. Also Benz has facilities in alabama and vw has it's us plants in tennesee but is based in northern Germany.

Memo21

That "crude little backwater" is the part of the 4th largest U.S. metro after NYC, LA and Chicago.
That little backwater metro is in the top 5 for corporate headquarters in the U.S.
That little backwater metro is approaching 8 million people.
That little backwater is one of the world's largest global logistics hubs.
And.....that little backwater, HAS MONEY.....lots of it.

In fact, check out the metro statistics for metro areas of American hubs DFW, Miami, Chicago and Philly. All four metros are in the top 10 nationally on population, gross domestic product, etc. Charlotte is really the only hub that is oversized, as the area demographics for the Charlotte metro put it in the low 20's and 30's on most metrics.

cfw

Seems like this thread has a lot of side discussions, but in the spirit of the main topic, I would like to ask if anybody sees either of these routes happening anytime soon:

1) a return of NYC - IAH
2) ALB - DFW

Fire away

Fanjet

The last time I checked, Mercedes Benz (Daimler) was not located in Bavaria, but in Stuttgart. Moreover, Stuttgart is closer to FRA than it is to MUC. And while VW's HQ in Wolfsburg may be closest to HAJ (and TXL would be the next closest airport) the city is still connected to FRA with the ICE trains. Just as Stuttgart is connected to FRA with the ICE trains. And just as the Rhein-Ruhr region is connected to FRA with the ICE trains. And BTW, the German automotive industry is not the only sector which has business ties in the southeastern U.S.

Fanjet

#1... it could be a possibility when more international service is started at JFK.

#2... not likely at all. You're more likely to see ALB-ORD started IMO.

Cltfc

So whats your point? I made a mistake on the state but it is is still South Western Germany. Oh I get it it, the location of stuttgart bolsters your hypothesis that CLT-FRA will continue to be flown. I have never stated with 100% certainty that CLT-FRA would be cut . I have said that it is an at risk route that may not make the cut when AA rationalizes its Atlantic Flying. However,you have posted repeatedly that the route will remain.Since you are so sure, you must have some intimate knowledge of internal AA Load/Profitability per route. Charlotte gets beaten up on this site because of posters like you who think CLT is going to be the center of the universe at the new AA, when it is in fact the weakest of the eastern hubs. Lets reconnect in a year or so when the T/A pull down begins at CLT.

SJC AA

"When"? More likely "if," I think.

ericcheung

CLT will likely remain as a primarily domestic hub, with some strategic transatlantic routes with strong O&D. Similar to how RDU-LHR fits into the system.

PHL will keep a lot of the secondary European cities as no other hub is as well suited for connecting flows. The upgauge to A332s from 762s will need more connecting feed this summer vs summers past, but it should be manageable with a stronger economy and better flows. JFK will keep its flows for O&D, but connecting from LGA/JFK is not an ideal passenger experience. Also removing feeder flights from prime-time slots allow for more O&D international flights vs. feeder flights.

Where I do see cuts in the combined system is ORD, and to some extent DFW. ORD served as an European connecting hub, and due to historic rules regarding LHR Access, also ends up with quite a number of LHR flights. With the combined network, it makes much more sense to route passengers from Mid-west / South to PHL to their destination in Europe than via ORD to LHR and then to BA for a final hop. There may not be a need for 4 AA flights to LHR - it's not the banker/lawyer shuttle that JFK is.

In addition - with the 77W and higher density 772s, there will be more seats for the same flights. Those freed up slots can be used to have BA fly to secondary cities with a 787 (similar to Austin). I just hope that AA does take back some flying like perhaps 1 BOS-LHR rotation.

Cltfc

Agreed on CLT but disagree on ORD as there just aren't that many routes to cut and all of the non ORD-LHR flights that are seasonal are on 767's or 757's which can easily be redeployed seasonally. Its all of those CLT-Europe seasonal flights on A330-200's that US has flown in winter to FLA and the Islands that will be redeployed to year round routes and I suspect they will go to Miami. I still believe CLT will be the Hub that will lose the bulk of its transatlantic flying. I also expect some 767's will be deployed to PHL and some A330's to Miami...

Hollinger Clarke

PHL will also lose some transatlantic service - they will not be able to sustain some of the thinner routes with a higher AA cost structure compared to a lower US cost structure.

I also see the PHL TLV flight to eventually move to JFK - I see absolutely no logic in AA having a hub in JFK and not serving TLV from there !!

Chicago has enough O&D traffic to sustain a 9am daily 767 LHR service 10 months of the year - that should tell you enough, and it has enough first class demand to eventually warrant putting a 77W in, post completion of 772 refurbishments

Cltfc

All the Hubs will look different, as far as TLV is concerned I think we will see a MIA-TLV flight before we see JFK-TLV. Big local market and a lot less competition, at JFK AA has to compete with multiple EL Al flights as well as Delta.I do think there will be some ORD-LHR flying cuts as Eastern Traffic that was routed west can now be routed over Philly... its simply geography

Austin787

I don't see PHL losing any international flights. It is in a great position for connections to Trans-Atlantic flights. Plus it serves a big market with little competition. Most Europe bound traffic AA routed through ORD and JFK can now be routed via PHL. PHL should serve as the main Trans-Atlantic gateway; ORD and JFK should focus on O&D traffic.