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ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)

 
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Old Oct 25, 2014, 11:48 pm
  #2041  
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Originally Posted by cbn42
US had very low costs pre-merger. If the merger raises their costs to AA's level, these flights may no longer be profitable.
Yes and No. The costs of serving PGV won't increase due to the merger, as it's a US Express regional spoke flown by low-wage PSA and Piedmont, and those employees aren't getting pay raises due to the merger. If PGV made sense before the merger, nothing about the merger changes that equation.

I agree that US had very low costs (primarily labor costs) prior to the merger, and that's precisely why the huge CLT hub will be pared back. Flights that made sense when the US mainline pilots were paid regional airline wages won't make any sense now that the US pilots are paid the AA wages (which cost US almost $300 million a year in increased compensation). Additionally, the US FAs were grossly underpaid, and they already ratified their first raise early in 2013, with a huge raise coming if they ratify the new combined CBA.

PGV is vulnerable to the inevitable retirement of the Dash-8s and the 50-seat CRJs over the next few years. If that town can't profitably support 76-seaters, then PGV may see service cutbacks unless it's paying astronomical fares that will continue to support the higher-cost 50-seaters.
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 12:38 am
  #2042  
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
Yes and No. The costs of serving PGV won't increase due to the merger, as it's a US Express regional spoke flown by low-wage PSA and Piedmont, and those employees aren't getting pay raises due to the merger. If PGV made sense before the merger, nothing about the merger changes that equation.
It is true that the costs of serving PGV won't increase due to the merger, but that doesn't mean that profitability won't be affected. Most of the people on the PGV flights are not O&D to CLT, they are connecting to somewhere else. If the flights they connect to are canceled, or reduced, or raised in cost, that may affect the profitability of the PGV flight as well. Airfares are priced between city pairs, not segment by segment, and the revenue generated by the PGV-CLT flight depends very heavily on what connecting options are available from CLT.

In the case of PGV, since US is the only airline there, it may be less of an issue because there is no other airline with service to another hub that residents can deflect to.
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 4:45 am
  #2043  
 
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Originally Posted by SOBE ER DOC
As for CLT's population...it is the same size or larger than the following metro areas: PIT, PDX, SAT, MCO, CVG, CLE, MCI, IND and so on. Further, CLT is the 8th fastest growing metro area meaning there is a lot more O&D traffic on the horizon.
And all these are also airline hub cities? I think a better comparison might be UA's DEN.
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 6:26 am
  #2044  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
Yes and No. The costs of serving PGV won't increase due to the merger, as it's a US Express regional spoke flown by low-wage PSA and Piedmont, and those employees aren't getting pay raises due to the merger. If PGV made sense before the merger, nothing about the merger changes that equation.

I agree that US had very low costs (primarily labor costs) prior to the merger, and that's precisely why the huge CLT hub will be pared back. Flights that made sense when the US mainline pilots were paid regional airline wages won't make any sense now that the US pilots are paid the AA wages (which cost US almost $300 million a year in increased compensation). Additionally, the US FAs were grossly underpaid, and they already ratified their first raise early in 2013, with a huge raise coming if they ratify the new combined CBA.

PGV is vulnerable to the inevitable retirement of the Dash-8s and the 50-seat CRJs over the next few years. If that town can't profitably support 76-seaters, then PGV may see service cutbacks unless it's paying astronomical fares that will continue to support the higher-cost 50-seaters.
so UA's PGV-IAD flights won't have any effects? Seems like the connecting options at IAD are huge...
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 8:05 am
  #2045  
 
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Originally Posted by A_Reed
so UA's PGV-IAD flights won't have any effects? Seems like the connecting options at IAD are huge...
UA doesn't serve PGV (Greenville, NC). US Express is the only airline there.

(UA does have IAD service at Greenville, SC - GSP)
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 8:11 am
  #2046  
 
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Originally Posted by lhl12
Is there somewhere I could go to see a detailed breakdown of that connecting traffic? I am surprised that the numbers are anywhere close to that high and am curious where all these people are connecting to. Some of it will be on Cape Air and US Express to small cities in the Northeast, but 35% is a startlingly high figure for that traffic.
Originally Posted by FWAAA
In addition to all the European connections at BOS, jetBlue offers numerous BOS connections, both international and domestic.
I've got some anecdotal evidence that may or may not be surprising.

Flew BOS-GCM-BOS easter week last April on B6. There were at least 2 families connecting in BOS to/from DCA. Also, while waiting for luggage in customs saw some bags tagged with BWI and JFK. I doubt that particular flight was 35% but I've heard some EK BOS-DXB flights are 50% connecting traffic onto B6 and others.

B6 execs also made a claim that at least 30 passengers a day on their BOS-DTW route connect to international flights in BOS: primarily on EK and TK.

I'm on the inaugural B6 BOS-LIR next week. I think this one will be all O&D since the flight leaves at 7am.


Finally, airlines do market connections in BOS: notably EI and JL

http://www.aerlingus.com/travelinfor...elandtotheusa/

http://www.ar.jal.com/arl/region/en/...anning/boston/
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 9:32 am
  #2047  
 
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Originally Posted by bse118
UA doesn't serve PGV (Greenville, NC). US Express is the only airline there.

(UA does have IAD service at Greenville, SC - GSP)
Not currently, but there's finally the possibility of UA(Express) serving PGV
after the possibility died in 2003.

Are there people who really can't tell the difference between these two
Greenvilles?
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 10:48 am
  #2048  
 
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I will no longer be flying US/AA dca-alb sorry to say. It's all cr-j now it seems flights have been delayed an average of 2 or 3 hours now. Even if I have to go out of BWI or IAD it will be a better option. What a bummer.
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 11:03 am
  #2049  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
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Originally Posted by DCEsquire
I will no longer be flying US/AA dca-alb sorry to say. It's all cr-j now it seems flights have been delayed an average of 2 or 3 hours now. Even if I have to go out of BWI or IAD it will be a better option. What a bummer.
It will also depend on the traffic to/from BWI or IAD. I can't count the number
of times I sat in stop-and-go traffic from Arlington all the way to IAD. Or from
Bethesda to BWI.
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 2:40 pm
  #2050  
 
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Originally Posted by DCEsquire
I will no longer be flying US/AA dca-alb sorry to say. It's all cr-j now it seems flights have been delayed an average of 2 or 3 hours now. Even if I have to go out of BWI or IAD it will be a better option. What a bummer.
There are still some E170s and E175s on these routes (the first and last flights of the day out of ALB and the afternoon/late night flights out of DCA - I have been flying them every 1-2 weeks the past couple months). The first flight out of ALB in the morning is almost always on time. The evening flight not so much.

Most of the delays in my recent experience have been due to inbound flight delays on earlier segments before heading up to ALB. For example an early morning flight today PVD-DCA was diverted to IAD and as a result that plane has been running 2 hours behind all day (PVD-DCA-MSY-DCA-ALB-DCA). Sometime tonight I'll be on it when it goes back ALB-DCA, the better part of 2 hours after scheduled departure.

UA is an absolute crapshoot out of ALB, I can't count how many times I've gotten to the airport and the UA flights are the only ones on the board reading delayed or cancelled. And I can't stand WN, between the cattle car boarding and the few times that schedule or price have forced me that way, I've spent a couple hours sitting at BWI, delayed, with no club to go to or much of anything to kill the time.
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 3:09 pm
  #2051  
 
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Originally Posted by A_Reed
Are there people who really can't tell the difference between these two
Greenvilles?

Between a Greenville NC and a Greenville SC and Greensboro NC and Goldsboro NC, it can be confusing. Unless you live in or near one of the four
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Old Oct 26, 2014, 4:06 pm
  #2052  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 142
Originally Posted by 6P&E
Between a Greenville NC and a Greenville SC and Greensboro NC and Goldsboro NC, it can be confusing. Unless you live in or near one of the four
can't be as confusing as telling people that you live in Kansas City.
I spent several years living in the "better" Kansas City and people can
never understand the difference.
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Old Oct 27, 2014, 9:48 am
  #2053  
 
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A small guess, but I'm going to say PHL-JFK will be restarted in 2015 or 2016, especially if any int'l service is moved from one airport to the other. Currently they are the only two hubs that are not connected in the AA network.
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Old Oct 27, 2014, 12:16 pm
  #2054  
 
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Originally Posted by lowfareair
A small guess, but I'm going to say PHL-JFK will be restarted in 2015 or 2016, especially if any int'l service is moved from one airport to the other. Currently they are the only two hubs that are not connected in the AA network.
yeah, I was wondering why they fly PHL to EWR but not JFK.
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Old Oct 27, 2014, 5:41 pm
  #2055  
 
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Originally Posted by lowfareair
A small guess, but I'm going to say PHL-JFK will be restarted in 2015 or 2016, especially if any int'l service is moved from one airport to the other. Currently they are the only two hubs that are not connected in the AA network.
True, but what's the value here?

JFK slots are precious. Why burn one on a puddlehopper from PHL?

1. One can pretty much get to PHL from any JFK TATL destination with a one-stopper through a European hub rather than JFK (most likely LHR but also MAD) (and v.v.)
2. ...not to mention PHL has its own metal N/S options and OW TATL traffic. Even if some traffic moves one way or the other I don't think there's any risk of making it so lopsided as to force the addition of that feeder (IMO NewAA can't afford to alienate NYC O/D by moving JFK nonstops to PHL, and pushing more of the PHL feed through, say ORD, doesn't really necessitate a PHL-JFK connection)
3. Going to Asia from PHL: ORD and DFW (not to mention SFO and LAX via OW partners) check that box
4. LatAm from PHL is pretty well (!) served through MIA if memory serves (not that I'd recommend it )
5. About the only thing I can think of that would push this is the ability for NYC'ers to connect to smaller destinations in the NE/Great Lakes via the swarm of miniature turboprops you see in PHL. Can't see that as a good use of a JFK slot though. LGA perhaps.

And as for PHL/JFK O/D... People there usually take the train if memory serves

And no, I don't really get PHL-EWR except as a leftover from the *A days where EWR offered a lot more TATL connectivity for USAir passengers than does/did PHL

Last edited by scnzzz; Oct 27, 2014 at 5:42 pm Reason: Typo fix
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