2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
Dec 17, 2015, 8:56 am
#1186
Join Date: Sep 2011
Programs: US Chairman, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 90
24 Hours Out, First Is Seemingly Empty...
Just checked in online and I am still in coach. DCA-BOS.
AA can do what they want with their FC seats..they are a business. In addition, it is an hour flight, and I can sit on the wing for an hour.
But - really?
AA can do what they want with their FC seats..they are a business. In addition, it is an hour flight, and I can sit on the wing for an hour.
But - really?
Dec 17, 2015, 12:03 pm
#1187
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2
EXP upgrade success rate on BOS-LAX / LAX-BOS routes
Hi All,
Can anyone comment on the success rates for EXP to get upgraded on American's BOS to LAX and LAX to BOS non-stop routes? I typically fly Thurs/ Fri BOS to LAX in the afternoon (4:30) or evening (7:30) and Sun/ Mon (red-eye) LAX to BOS, but I have some flexibility.
So I thought I'd start booking flights in which I have a better chance of upgrade.
Thanks!
Can anyone comment on the success rates for EXP to get upgraded on American's BOS to LAX and LAX to BOS non-stop routes? I typically fly Thurs/ Fri BOS to LAX in the afternoon (4:30) or evening (7:30) and Sun/ Mon (red-eye) LAX to BOS, but I have some flexibility.
So I thought I'd start booking flights in which I have a better chance of upgrade.
Thanks!
Dec 17, 2015, 12:12 pm
#1188
Senior Moderator and Moderator: American AAdvantage & TravelBuzz
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 10,417
Merged with existing "what are my upgrade changes" thread to keep the forum tidy. /Moderator
With the tight inventory these days, I find upgrade availability to be all over the place. If there's a big conference in town, F inventory can often be taken months in advance. Peak travel periods just naturally have lots of people buying across all cabins. (I find myself flying the direct much less these days, as the times and upgrade liklihood aren't to my liking.) You may want to consider getting an ExpertFlyert subscription so that you can get some visibility into the flight loads when you book or for potential confirmed flight change within 24 hours of travel.
Hi All,
Can anyone comment on the success rates for EXP to get upgraded on American's BOS to LAX and LAX to BOS non-stop routes? I typically fly Thurs/ Fri BOS to LAX in the afternoon (4:30) or evening (7:30) and Sun/ Mon (red-eye) LAX to BOS, but I have some flexibility.
So I thought I'd start booking flights in which I have a better chance of upgrade.
Thanks!
Can anyone comment on the success rates for EXP to get upgraded on American's BOS to LAX and LAX to BOS non-stop routes? I typically fly Thurs/ Fri BOS to LAX in the afternoon (4:30) or evening (7:30) and Sun/ Mon (red-eye) LAX to BOS, but I have some flexibility.
So I thought I'd start booking flights in which I have a better chance of upgrade.
Thanks!
With the tight inventory these days, I find upgrade availability to be all over the place. If there's a big conference in town, F inventory can often be taken months in advance. Peak travel periods just naturally have lots of people buying across all cabins. (I find myself flying the direct much less these days, as the times and upgrade liklihood aren't to my liking.) You may want to consider getting an ExpertFlyert subscription so that you can get some visibility into the flight loads when you book or for potential confirmed flight change within 24 hours of travel.
Last edited by JY1024; Dec 17, 2015 at 12:19 pm
Dec 18, 2015, 2:57 pm
#1189
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 15
AA 153 (ORD/NRT) - SWU chances
I am EXP and looking at waitlisting a SWU on AA 153 between ORD and NRT for mid-week departure in Sept/Oct 2016 on the 788. Clearly, there will be confirmable upgrade space, but I’m just trying to maximize the likelihood of clearing the SWU.
EF shows only 1 J seat currently occupied (this is seat 1A, and it’s blocked for every flight I search – is that a crew rest seat?)
EF also shows that MCE is completely open except for 8J-L, 14J-L, and 18D-H, which are also blocked on every flight I searched.
In other words, the “usual” indicators are good that I’ll be near the to of the upgrade list. Is there anything unusual about the 788 or this route that would change that (e.g., does J get filled by paid customers more on this route than others)? Are SWUs on this route more likely to clear than on others?
EF shows only 1 J seat currently occupied (this is seat 1A, and it’s blocked for every flight I search – is that a crew rest seat?)
EF also shows that MCE is completely open except for 8J-L, 14J-L, and 18D-H, which are also blocked on every flight I searched.
In other words, the “usual” indicators are good that I’ll be near the to of the upgrade list. Is there anything unusual about the 788 or this route that would change that (e.g., does J get filled by paid customers more on this route than others)? Are SWUs on this route more likely to clear than on others?
Dec 18, 2015, 3:54 pm
#1190
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
I am EXP and looking at waitlisting a SWU on AA 153 between ORD and NRT for mid-week departure in Sept/Oct 2016 on the 788. Clearly, there will be confirmable upgrade space, but I’m just trying to maximize the likelihood of clearing the SWU.
EF shows only 1 J seat currently occupied (this is seat 1A, and it’s blocked for every flight I search – is that a crew rest seat?)
EF also shows that MCE is completely open except for 8J-L, 14J-L, and 18D-H, which are also blocked on every flight I searched.
In other words, the “usual” indicators are good that I’ll be near the to of the upgrade list. Is there anything unusual about the 788 or this route that would change that (e.g., does J get filled by paid customers more on this route than others)? Are SWUs on this route more likely to clear than on others?
EF shows only 1 J seat currently occupied (this is seat 1A, and it’s blocked for every flight I search – is that a crew rest seat?)
EF also shows that MCE is completely open except for 8J-L, 14J-L, and 18D-H, which are also blocked on every flight I searched.
In other words, the “usual” indicators are good that I’ll be near the to of the upgrade list. Is there anything unusual about the 788 or this route that would change that (e.g., does J get filled by paid customers more on this route than others)? Are SWUs on this route more likely to clear than on others?
Booking this far out it's anybody's guess as to how much paid J traffic you'd be competing with, as most of this wouldn't be purchased until a month or so before the trip.
Dec 19, 2015, 10:40 am
#1191
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,976
Sep/Oct 2016 is way, way off in the future, it's likely you're the first person booked on the flight and would undoubtedly be at the top of the waitlist. Flying mid-week definitely increases your chances as well.
Booking this far out it's anybody's guess as to how much paid J traffic you'd be competing with, as most of this wouldn't be purchased until a month or so before the trip.
Booking this far out it's anybody's guess as to how much paid J traffic you'd be competing with, as most of this wouldn't be purchased until a month or so before the trip.
It's maddening that a J cabin can be completely empty and not a single seat is made available for upgrade.
Dec 19, 2015, 2:54 pm
#1192
Join Date: Mar 2012
Programs: AA EXP MM/UA MM/Marriott PLT Premier-LT PLT
Posts: 383
[QUOTE
Yes, booking this far out the best you can say is that you'll be at the top of the list, and maybe not even that. I booked a JFK-MXP flight 6 months out with no MCE seats taken and only 1 or 2 J seats taken. I somehow ended up 5th on the airport list and no one cleared.
It's maddening that a J cabin can be completely empty and not a single seat is made available for upgrade.[/QUOTE]
Is it just MXP or everywhere. I've been wait listed for that flight on christmas day for months. the seatmap had been at 2 seats taken for months with U open. Now just 5 days out still only 4 seats taken and still no upgrade. I wasn't worried till I saw your post on JFK - MXP.
Yes, booking this far out the best you can say is that you'll be at the top of the list, and maybe not even that. I booked a JFK-MXP flight 6 months out with no MCE seats taken and only 1 or 2 J seats taken. I somehow ended up 5th on the airport list and no one cleared.
It's maddening that a J cabin can be completely empty and not a single seat is made available for upgrade.[/QUOTE]
Is it just MXP or everywhere. I've been wait listed for that flight on christmas day for months. the seatmap had been at 2 seats taken for months with U open. Now just 5 days out still only 4 seats taken and still no upgrade. I wasn't worried till I saw your post on JFK - MXP.
Dec 19, 2015, 3:58 pm
#1193
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Vail, CO
Programs: AA EXP/1mm, Marriott Titanium/LT Gold, UA Silver
Posts: 626
Does anyone know the reasoning on why you can't do a comp upgrade from paid J to F on the 321T? Seems like a strange anomaly...
Dec 19, 2015, 11:46 pm
#1194
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,976
Is it just MXP or everywhere. I've been wait listed for that flight on christmas day for months. the seatmap had been at 2 seats taken for months with U open. Now just 5 days out still only 4 seats taken and still no upgrade. I wasn't worried till I saw your post on JFK - MXP.
My guess is your upgrade will clear on Monday.
Dec 20, 2015, 3:55 am
#1195
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: AA EP
Posts: 2,203
No j to f com upgrades have been the policy for as long as I can remember....probably something to do with wanting to protect the F transcon product.
Dec 20, 2015, 8:48 am
#1196
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 165
Anybody have any history/success with an upgrade on GRU-LAX since they have changed it over to the 788? It's looking like much more of an uphill battle than I thought it would be.
I'm flying 1/24/16 with a second person. But looking at random days in January the J cabin looks to be sold extremely well.
I'm flying 1/24/16 with a second person. But looking at random days in January the J cabin looks to be sold extremely well.
Dec 21, 2015, 1:24 am
#1197
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 543
Good news -- just got off LAX-PVG on AA 182 on 12/19. The weeks/days leading up to it the cabin was showing J0 and then J1 24 hours before. It was a full flight, but I cleared along with the only other person on the upgrade list (surprised there weren't more people). The seats on the 788 are narrower than the 77W but it's still business nevertheless!
It seemed like the majority of people were foreign Chinese students (presumably doing an bachelor's/master's/PhD in LA) which explains why the flights were full across both cabins as it is their winter break.
It seemed like the majority of people were foreign Chinese students (presumably doing an bachelor's/master's/PhD in LA) which explains why the flights were full across both cabins as it is their winter break.
Dec 21, 2015, 8:06 am
#1198
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: SFO
Programs: UA GS
Posts: 164
Good news -- just got off LAX-PVG on AA 182 on 12/19. The weeks/days leading up to it the cabin was showing J0 and then J1 24 hours before. It was a full flight, but I cleared along with the only other person on the upgrade list (surprised there weren't more people). The seats on the 788 are narrower than the 77W but it's still business nevertheless!
It seemed like the majority of people were foreign Chinese students (presumably doing an bachelor's/master's/PhD in LA) which explains why the flights were full across both cabins as it is their winter break.
It seemed like the majority of people were foreign Chinese students (presumably doing an bachelor's/master's/PhD in LA) which explains why the flights were full across both cabins as it is their winter break.
J0 R0 D0 I0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 G0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 T0
Also had a look at the admiral's club with a friendly employee there and she said it was showing as "all seats sold" but agreed it was bizarre.
Dec 21, 2015, 8:45 am
#1199
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: NJ
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 923
I wouldn't worry if J is mostly empty this close to departure. My point was that an empty J cabin months before departure is of little use in predicting an eventual upgrade. Nor apparently is an empty MCE cabin a guarantee you'll be at the top of the wait list.
My guess is your upgrade will clear on Monday.
My guess is your upgrade will clear on Monday.
Dec 21, 2015, 9:55 am
#1200
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Cleveland, OH
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 122
I am in a similar situation here, booked on Xmas day to FRA and wait listed with SWUs. According to EF ZERO seats in business are taken (except crew rest blocked) and all business buckets are 7. I'm beginning to get paranoid and wonder if they ever close down a premium cabin without paid fares for a particular flight to save $$$...