Casper97

I am EXP and looking at waitlisting a SWU on AA 153 between ORD and NRT for mid-week departure in Sept/Oct 2016 on the 788. Clearly, there will be confirmable upgrade space, but I’m just trying to maximize the likelihood of clearing the SWU.

EF shows only 1 J seat currently occupied (this is seat 1A, and it’s blocked for every flight I search – is that a crew rest seat?)
EF also shows that MCE is completely open except for 8J-L, 14J-L, and 18D-H, which are also blocked on every flight I searched.

In other words, the “usual” indicators are good that I’ll be near the to of the upgrade list. Is there anything unusual about the 788 or this route that would change that (e.g., does J get filled by paid customers more on this route than others)? Are SWUs on this route more likely to clear than on others?