chances are 50-50.....they will either have 2x's or not....

This is not even close to true. This implies that there is an even chance of having it or not. Without further information, it is impossible to make a prediction like this. Something with a binary choice (will or won't happen) doesn't have a 50-50 chance. Consider the lottery - either I will or won't win it....but the chance of winning is hardly 50-50 :)

Cheers.

I'd play with those odds. But I guess that I could no longer call the lottery 'a tax for those bad at math' (or an 'idiot tax')

The other view is that it's a valid part of a balanced portfolio- it's a low investment, very high risk investment with a very high payoff. It is possible to know the math and still play.

Cheers.

DEQM for 2013?
 

Based upon recent flights, I am seeing a lot more empty seats than previously. If the economy keeps sputtering, I'd bet on it. The cruise lines are starting to discount massively (balconies for under $50 a day) and I think the airlines will be following suit.

Possibly, as part of an exit from bankruptcy/rebranding there might be another month of DEQM freebies as a good will gesture to elites. Of course, if the bankruptcy leads into a USAir merger (which is looking more likely today than a few weeks back) then all bets are off. IIRC neither DL/NW or UA/CO did anything promotions when those airlines combined.

Really...? We must fly very different routes; I can't remember a flight that wasn't at or near full capacity this year.

Anyone remember when we would turn to FlyerTalk for real information?
Me neither.

There is no real evidence that any airline is seeing a sizable drop in load factors. Load factors remain near all time highs. I would tend to think that airlines (including) would park a/c in the desert before going on a DEQM binge like we saw in 2009.

No. OP asked about 2013, so I asked about 2014 (then the OP subsequently changed his post to 2013-2014). You could still ask about 2015, and I don't think anyone's asked about 2016 yet.

Up until a few weeks ago, I would have agreed with you, but this is just in the last few weeks. Also, you are in a hub, and I fly out of FLL. Had 6 empty F/C out of DFW-YVR a few days ago. About 25 (F/Y) empty on the FLL-DFW segment.

Each evening, from December to December,
Before you drift to sleep upon your cot,
Think back on all the tales that you remember
Of FlyerTalk.
Ask ev'ry person if he's heard the story,
And tell it strong and clear if he has not,
That once there was a fleeting wisp of knowledge
Called FlyerTalk.
Yes, FlyerTalk, my boy!
Where bad info wasn't posted until sundown,
By eight a.m. the bovine poop had flown...
Don't let it be forgot
That once there was a spot
For one brief shining moment that was known
As FlyerTalk.

But just perhaps... the "Speculation:" in the title means something, so those who prefer not to speculate or read speculative threads can move on without having to read them. Or is this what they mean by "reminiscence therapy"? ;)

Do you know something about 2016 :)? I am thinking about qualifying for the Olympics that year and plan on doing a lot of flying. Probably in the 100 Meters if anyone is wondering, though I may look at swimming.

How many business travelers take cruise ships to their destination?