Feb 14, 2013, 9:50 am
Last edit by: JDiver
MODERATOR GUIDEPOST
The AA - US merger was approved by AMR creditors and the boards of directors of both airlines on 13 Feb 2013, and announced the 14th.
There is no further speculation about whether the merger will occur; all that is pending is approval from the bankruptcy court and the regulatory authorities.
American Airlines and US Airways approve merger: just the facts, please outlines the facts we know;
AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement Discussion (consolidated) is the thread for discussion of the announced merger.
The AA - US merger was approved by AMR creditors and the boards of directors of both airlines on 13 Feb 2013, and announced the 14th.
There is no further speculation about whether the merger will occur; all that is pending is approval from the bankruptcy court and the regulatory authorities.
American Airlines and US Airways approve merger: just the facts, please outlines the facts we know;
AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement Discussion (consolidated) is the thread for discussion of the announced merger.
ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated)
Feb 4, 2013, 9:33 pm
#3196
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: SEATTLE, WA USA
Programs: UAL, AA, AS, CX
Posts: 1,973
Im genuinely curious if there is an AA and USAir stock play here? If so what and how is the collective thoughts of FTers?
Feb 4, 2013, 9:34 pm
#3197
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: San Diego, Ca
Programs: AA 2MM LT PLT; AS MVP Gold75k; HHonors Diamond; IHG PLT
Posts: 3,503
Could you provide a link to this announcement? (and the AS one as well) I can't seem to find anything. Cape Air flies 8-seater Cessnas, I can't see them replacing AE in any meaningful capacity, and it appears that it's to just a few locations.
http://www.aa.com/i18n/urls/capeair.jsp
http://www.aa.com/i18n/urls/capeair.jsp
You are quite correct - hence the OP's description "replacement".
AMR is attempting to service Carribean primarily from MIA, DFW - obviously leaves lots of holes.
Feb 4, 2013, 11:30 pm
#3198
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: ORD
Programs: AA EXP,2MM, DL Gold,Starwood PLT
Posts: 3,876
The stock play time frame has probably all ready passed for any real returns. It's now baked into the stocks the merger will likely happen. The true trick with profitable stock plays is you have to be ahead of the curve in most cases ( ie before the press is so saturated with the the likelihood of a merger). The last great stock play for AA was shorting it when you could anticipate BK was inevitable BEFORE it was common knowledge it was gonna happen.
Feb 5, 2013, 6:45 am
#3200
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: San Diego, Ca
Programs: AA 2MM LT PLT; AS MVP Gold75k; HHonors Diamond; IHG PLT
Posts: 3,503
Feb 5, 2013, 8:08 am
#3201
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: eastern Europe & NC
Posts: 4,527
If this lousy merger happens, then there would likely be a period of euphoria when the stock price would rise, followed by reality setting in and a significant downtrend in value.
If it does not happen, then the stock price of LCC will tank, and it may go belly up. Without AA's cash to leach off of, LCC will be done. That is actually the best way for AA to get the parts of LCC that would be useful to it, without the primadonna twit Parker and without LCC's debt load or the obligation to pay off Parker's bribes to the unions.
If it does not happen, then the stock price of LCC will tank, and it may go belly up. Without AA's cash to leach off of, LCC will be done. That is actually the best way for AA to get the parts of LCC that would be useful to it, without the primadonna twit Parker and without LCC's debt load or the obligation to pay off Parker's bribes to the unions.
Feb 5, 2013, 8:11 am
#3202
Moderator: Coupon Connection & S.P.A.M
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Louisville, KY
Programs: Destination Unknown, TSA Disparager Diamond (LTDD)
Posts: 57,953
If this lousy merger happens, then there would likely be a period of euphoria when the stock price would rise, followed by reality setting in and a significant downtrend in value.
If it does not happen, then the stock price of LCC will tank, and it may go belly up. Without AA's cash to leach off of, LCC will be done. That is actually the best way for AA to get the parts of LCC that would be useful to it, without the primadonna twit Parker and without LCC's debt load or the obligation to pay off Parker's bribes to the unions.
If it does not happen, then the stock price of LCC will tank, and it may go belly up. Without AA's cash to leach off of, LCC will be done. That is actually the best way for AA to get the parts of LCC that would be useful to it, without the primadonna twit Parker and without LCC's debt load or the obligation to pay off Parker's bribes to the unions.
Feb 5, 2013, 8:15 am
#3203
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: West of the Rockies
Programs: AA EXP | DL SM | HH DM |*wood Gold
Posts: 1,271
MO
Feb 5, 2013, 8:31 am
#3204
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,397
Or is this something where I won't get the wisdom and enlightenment until I start drinking the delicious KoolAAid? All I can say is US was "wrecked" a long time ago. Odds are that the AW merger is the only reason why it's still in business as opposed to being as dead as PA or BE.
Feb 5, 2013, 8:53 am
#3205
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ft Lauderdale
Programs: AA EXP, DL Silver, Hilton Dia, Marriott Gold, Hertz Pres Cir, National Exec Elite
Posts: 116
If this lousy merger happens, then there would likely be a period of euphoria when the stock price would rise, followed by reality setting in and a significant downtrend in value.
If it does not happen, then the stock price of LCC will tank, and it may go belly up. Without AA's cash to leach off of, LCC will be done. That is actually the best way for AA to get the parts of LCC that would be useful to it, without the primadonna twit Parker and without LCC's debt load or the obligation to pay off Parker's bribes to the unions.
If it does not happen, then the stock price of LCC will tank, and it may go belly up. Without AA's cash to leach off of, LCC will be done. That is actually the best way for AA to get the parts of LCC that would be useful to it, without the primadonna twit Parker and without LCC's debt load or the obligation to pay off Parker's bribes to the unions.
Feb 5, 2013, 9:23 am
#3206
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: MSY; 2-time FT Fantasy Football Champ, now in recovery.
Programs: AA lifetime GLD; UA Silver; Marriott LTTE; IHG Plat,
Posts: 14,518
The stock play time frame has probably all ready passed for any real returns. It's now baked into the stocks the merger will likely happen. The true trick with profitable stock plays is you have to be ahead of the curve in most cases ( ie before the press is so saturated with the the likelihood of a merger). The last great stock play for AA was shorting it when you could anticipate BK was inevitable BEFORE it was common knowledge it was gonna happen.
In general, you're right about being ahead of the curve. If this were a typical merger, I'd agree. But in this case, with AA in bankruptcy, all bets are off. If they merge, AAMRQ could still easily go out worthless, or it could be worth a few dollars. In fact, the one thing that would surprise me was if the exit value turns out to be within 30% of the current $1.25 price, up or down.
Feb 6, 2013, 6:50 am
#3207
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: LA
Programs: AAdvantage, CK, 4 MM; Marriott Lifetime PLT
Posts: 310
Again - so you understand - I was responding to an AApologist aassertion that Parker/US saves money by not maintaining their fleet.
And to repeat myself since there is a comprehension problem - I said IMO both airlines are safe.
However, none of the legacies (you mention DL) are pristine and certainly as we know from the AA ORD D10 crash and the AS M80 crash, as well as WN's shortcoming, strong government oversight is necessary.
Blabbing on that US is unsafe here is just a complete falsehood. (period) AA as these fines show is not a paragon of compliance.
Google "American Airlines FAA Fines"
And to repeat myself since there is a comprehension problem - I said IMO both airlines are safe.
However, none of the legacies (you mention DL) are pristine and certainly as we know from the AA ORD D10 crash and the AS M80 crash, as well as WN's shortcoming, strong government oversight is necessary.
Blabbing on that US is unsafe here is just a complete falsehood. (period) AA as these fines show is not a paragon of compliance.
Google "American Airlines FAA Fines"
Since that time, AA had millions of flights with a safety record probably in the 99 percentile. As for FAA fines, once again, IIRC, it related to the MD-80; also, the agency proposed the fine amounts. Those usually are not the final figures as the airlines contest the amount of the fine imposed. Makes for great headlines for low information readers who would rather google and spread misinformation than actually go off of facts. What makes you think AA is going to be able to waltz right in and acquire assets in liquidation without UA or DL being able to say "boo" about it? When it comes to that, cash is king, and it's not like AA is the only airline in the United States that can write a check.
Or is this something where I won't get the wisdom and enlightenment until I start drinking the delicious KoolAAid? All I can say is US was "wrecked" a long time ago. Odds are that the AW merger is the only reason why it's still in business as opposed to being as dead as PA or BE.
Or is this something where I won't get the wisdom and enlightenment until I start drinking the delicious KoolAAid? All I can say is US was "wrecked" a long time ago. Odds are that the AW merger is the only reason why it's still in business as opposed to being as dead as PA or BE.
Feb 6, 2013, 7:07 am
#3208
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: JFK, DCA, BUR, YVR
Programs: AC, AS, BA, DL, HH (D), MR (T/LTP), UA (*S), UScAAre (PLT/1,87MM), WN
Posts: 5,207
Feb 6, 2013, 7:39 am
#3209
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SLC
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat
Posts: 616
"Not going to happen. I realize that this is FT but there is zero chance that UA or DL would be allowed to acquire ANY of US assets if the airline was to be liquidated somewhere down the line. The only legacy that would be in play would be AA. DOJ and DOT will not approve any transaction involving DL or UA unless both carriers gave back significant assets"
With enough lobby money and not being publicly arrogant, any anti-competitive purchase can and will occur. The lobbyist decide if a merger goes through based on the amount of money they are willing to throw around.
With enough lobby money and not being publicly arrogant, any anti-competitive purchase can and will occur. The lobbyist decide if a merger goes through based on the amount of money they are willing to throw around.
Feb 6, 2013, 8:17 am
#3210
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: San Diego, Ca
Programs: AA 2MM LT PLT; AS MVP Gold75k; HHonors Diamond; IHG PLT
Posts: 3,503
ATT spent MILLIONS trying to acquire T-Mobile, cost them BILLIONS more in penalties to T-Mobile when they could not find a way to make it work - even after agreeing to divest some assets.