n7371f

Honestly this should surprise few people.

AS didn't buy Virgin America for its LAX/SFO-transcon stuff. They bought Virgin primarily to take out a competitor that was clobbering the west coast yield markets - to take JetBlue out of buying said airline - and if you believe the wild speculation, that AA was sniffing around on AS. Yet to talk to someone who has said the third option was actually going to happen. But believe the first two. AS homers have a hard time believing it.

MAH4546

FLLLAX is hard cut for me, too. Luckily I literally fly it almost entirely between October and May, when it’s still operating, but still this sucks. Hopefully it’s a one time seasonal suspension and goes back to year-round when it returns in October.

lax.sea.jnu

If they weren't interested in the transcon stuff, why did they launch so many transcon/midcon markets after the acquisition? Its true that they were most interested in fending off Jetblue and the west-coast market share, but they definitely had a goal of being a premier west coast airline with hubs/focus-cities in ANC, SEA, PDX, SFO, SJC, LAX, and SAN.

ucdtim17

Spaghetti on the wall. The VX purchase wasn't part of a long term, long planned strategy. It was something that came up and they felt they had to take advantage of it. They've been trying a lot of things in the past few years and bailing when they don't work out.

tphuang

Every time JetBlue has added a flight on this route, as has cut one back. Was 2x off peak and 3x rest of year. Now it's just 1x rest of the year. JetBlue is going to keep adding here since it's one of their most profitable routes. How much longer do you think this will become a holiday season only route like FLL sfo?

Bos lax is the next to go imo and Bos San will be in trouble a year from now.

WebTraveler

I think they are bailing out too quick. But that aside, right now it;'s airplanes and the lack of them....they are turning in some Airbuses and failing to get the new planes from Boeing. This has a real impact. Reactivated some retired Horizon planes to just keep a route structure.

Reality is everyone is in the same boat on planes right now.

And the larger reality is Alaska needs a partner it can push traffic to domestically and take some of the pressure off.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/alaska...amento-routes/

"The Seattle-based carrier will end service between Los Angeles (LAX) and Salt Lake City, and between Sacramento (SMF) and Kahului (OGG) on Maui on May 19, Alaska confirmed and Cirium schedules show. It will also downgrade service between Los Angeles and Fort Lauderdale (FLL), and between San Diego (SAN) and Salt Lake City to seasonal status.

In addition, Alaska will not resume seasonal service between Portland, Oregon (PDX) and Philadelphia (PHL) next summer, the airline confirms."

MAH4546

its a large local market with limited competition to FLL, and it still operates up to 3x daily during peak (it’s 3x daily right now, and I’m sure it’ll be 2x-3x again by next November). Alaska has practically an entire terminal to itself at LAX and, unlike SFO, has historically been strong in Los Angeles. I don’t see them exiting FLL or BOS. The reality is there is also a plane shortage with Airbus planes going and no
Maxs coming and a need to send capacity to SEA due to how they allocate gates. We will see what happens, but LA is not SF for Alaska. It’s always been very strong in Los Angeles. The only pre-merger Virgin routes cut from LAX were Orlando and Cancun, and now PMAS Salt Lake City. They added that
and cut PHL and MEX post merger.

I think when things get settled with plane deliveries we could see a renewed focus at adding some stuff at LAX, one reason being the same as SEA: they need to keep the gates busy due to allocation reasons (though LAX isn’t as strict as SEA).

tphuang

It's 2x daily this winter season, which is typically their peak season. And normally off-peak is one less flight. With this cut, it's going to most likely be 1x daily in peak season. The reason for this is B6 cleaned their clocks on both FLL/BOS-LAX. All the numbers show that and B6 is continuing to grow these markets.

AS management's own route decisions show that they know what they are good at and they are going to make those changes regardless of wants/wishes of cali ff.
They've made the decision to cut back trans/midcon routes out of Cali in favor of ultra accelerated growth at SEA and north/south west coast growth. This is a clear conscious strategy by a new AS route planning team that is no longer beholden to the need to maintain ex-VX routes.

sfozrhfco

Exactly, AS is going to have to pick their battles and with no new planes coming anytime soon and the ongoing battle to retain market share in SEA, I would expect the cuts from California to continue. As other non-MAX operators grow the situation for AS in these markets will just get worse. Better to retreat back to their positions of strength for the time being. With no announced fleet plan and seemingly having no plan if the MAX completely flames out, they have to make due with the limited resources they have.

fly18725

I don’t think any US airline is planning for a future without the MAX. That’s absurd.

eponymous_coward

You must mean DL and B6, since UA, WN and AA all have significantly more MAX exposure than AS (since AS doesn't actually operate the MAX yet, and they all did before it was grounded).

Funny innit how the airline that isn't actually operating the MAX is DOOOOOOOMED though? Instead of the airline hubbed at SFO or the one that does all the intra-CA traffic that actually had to ground a bunch of their planes?

Well, if that comes to pass, they'll take delivery of the pmVX A320neos they keep putting off (now it's 2023 or whatever). They haven't cancelled the order yet. They could also stop sending pmVX A319/A320ceo planes back to the lessor if they had to. Pretty sure the lessor would rather keep getting checks from AS instead of having to seek out new lessees.

sullim4

Heh, I think Delta is...

You're right that the previous statement was far-fetched, but I wouldn't call it absurd. That plane has ousted a CEO, damaged the FAA's reputation internationally, and isn't going to fly revenue routes for at least another few months.

I can only speak for myself, but I will be avoiding the MAX short of any last-minute operational swaps. If/when the MAX enters the AS fleet, I'm going to be taking a hard look at DL and B6.

fly18725

Delta is looking at the MAX. They are the biggest opportunist and smell a bargain.

VegasGambler

It would be negligent not to have a plan for it. Even if it's unlikely, it's a distinct possibility that the MAX never flies, and a business needs to plan for that.

It's also distinctly more likely that it takes a lot longer than currently anticipated for it to come back, so they need a plan for that as well.

I seriously doubt that this question has not come up at every single airline that flies or has orders for the MAX as the date has continued to slip further and further. Some exec at every airline was tasked with coming up with a plan for this, and by this point they have almost certainly settled on something.

NoLaGent

I fear this thread has derailed, but agree with the comment above.

Every airline must have several contingencies plotted by now, but perhaps this should be another thread.