Dr Fauci and others have said that there will almost certainly be a 2nd wave in the winder months. These are the same people who said that a global pandemic was a when not an if, a few month ago and they were right. The only way for a 2nd wave not to come is to completely eliminate the virus which is quite achievable both in Australia and New Zealand but the cost is to keep the borders closed. There will be some tough decisions for both Primie Ministers especially when other countries start to open up. More realistically perhaps in the short run the best we can hope for is full trans-Tasman tourism. That may mean joint decision making regarding opening borders to a third country.

The Finance Minister just said don't get ahead of ourselves re travel and reminded us the PM says tight border controls will be with us for a long time.

Ah well. I guess now is the time to get ahead on a lot of work so that I can take lots of time off in the future

If this was it cause it would be great if they pulled some of the PE seats out of the grounded 777s, and fit 12 of them into the A321NEO's for the time being.

I'd rather pay more to sit in PE, that be rammed in an row of 3 if travel is re-opened this year. I'm sure they would be some demand of people willing to pay for the extra space.

What is the talk of how long? Rest of 2020? Into 2021? I've booked flights for Australia and New Zealand for early March 2021. Hoping things are near normal by then.

Exactly, its all hypothetical, and who says Australia has it under control?

Stats can be interpreted in many ways, however many aspects of their stats show they've performed better than NZ, despite not being as strict. Time however what things will be a.like a month from now.

The key difference with Australia is the Federation and independent states, all of whom have their own rules. "Opening up" Australia to NZers would potentialy be something done on a state by state level when it does eventually happen.

no time frame given. I've got flights to see 3 shows in Sydney in Septmber. One show has been cancelled, others still go (at this stage). I will be surprised if we are flying by then.

I am not sure why New Zealand is pursuing an elimination strategy. It comes at a high cost (~10% of GDP if international travel resumes elsewhere, but not in NZ) and was based on some assumptions around the spread of the virus which now no longer hold e.g. the measures that 'stop the spread' which have the most effect are banning large gatherings, physical distancing and good hygiene. Plus good testing and tracing. None of these require limitations on international travel, but do recognize that cases will occur from time to time and need to be managed. Just like any other infectious disease.

One possible consideration is because pandemics are not equal opportunity killers. For example, the Influenza pandemic in 1918 witnessed mortality rates four times greater for the indigenous populations of New Zealand, Australia and the USA compared to the rest of their national populations. In (Western) Samoa 22% of the population died in a few weeks after it arrived there.*

In the USA Covid-19 is hitting African-Americans much harder than European-Americans and it likely would have the same effect in New Zealand with Maori and other Polynesian populations.

I think New Zealand is, in part, trying to protect its Maori and Pacific Islands populations.

*This information on the 1918 influenze pandemic is from Pandemics: A Very Short Introduction from Oxford University Press.

Probably because it's quite achievable unlike many other countries. And it will also help to prevent a 2nd wave so that we won't need to lock down again.

The NZ deaths are highlighted by age (I think all but one are 70+ & that one is 60+) are they also broken up by population type ?

Thinking about it, there is an election in September
.
You would think that they would atleast re-opened the boarders to Australia by then.

You may not be sure why, but I can't see how being in airport with thousands of other people from all over the world, sitting in close proximity to many other people on a plane, some possibly with questionable hygiene practises is going to help "stop the spread"
The measures NZ has taken have something like a 84% nation wide approval rate here, some countries are doing it different and that is their right.
But this is what we are doing here.

Remember the rules change last week "Elimination of the virus does not mean zero cases but zero tolerance" (From the Prime Minister) a change from eradication retoric from the previous weeks. If this is now the school of thought then it may open the gate for a TT bubble. I would suspect if so then contact tracking/tracing would form a significant parameter both sides of the Tasman. Maybe done but a requirement to upload a tracking app that works on both sides of the ditch.