superangrypenguin

VERY interesting. I wonder if it's because of this:

1) eupgrade requirements for 2015 have gone up. Less earning, more credits needed. Therefore less eupgrades in general.

THEREFORE:

Lowered costs of LMU to try and fill the empty J seats.

Thoughts?

mountaingrl

LOL I might have bought your theory until I saw:

Mar-8 YYZ-HKG on Flex (V):
LMU to Business CAD 5240.00

What I do know is that there were only 4 SEs on my flight trying to get the eupgrade and no Elites (some of the conceirges are so nice with info!) - so that is why I think the LMU was so low, and the 5th J seat must have gone to staff as manying on the list hoping to get into J seats.

superangrypenguin

Fair point. I wonder if my theory will start to come true though. There's been a few reports now on FT that are showing J cabins that are more empty than before. Perhaps they are one offs, but if I was running AC, it would make sense to me.

Reduce those lowly elites/stupid elites (SE's) ability to upgrade, and fill them with revenue pax (LMU) in this case. Short term wise, AC would make more money. Now with the example you quoted, I don't think that would work but surely 7 days since March - I'm sure they haven't figured it out yet

canadiancow

They day they make LMUs cheap enough that people like you start regularly paying for them is the day I stop paying upgradeable fares and stop paying for J on AC to maintain status.

PLeblond

LMUs should be priced just high enough that people who were on the bubble of buying J will think: "Man... I should have bought J in the first place. Otherwise it does not serve its overall purpose.

superangrypenguin

Wouldn't it benefit you too? If you paid $3000 for J, versus $800 (flex fare) + $500 for a LMU? Wouldn't we both benefit?

PLeblond

The airline would not. More specifically, there is no logical reason for any airline to sell last minute upgrades at prices where it would negatively affect sales of J.

superangrypenguin

Doesn't UA do this? Mind you from what I read on FT their prices are cheaper up front anyways but I thought that last minute purchases for upgrades were cheaper than AC (for the most part). I could also be wrong.

canadiancow

No, because:
1. On flights where I buy J, it's because I will not accept anything less. So unless you can guarantee me that there will be a reasonably priced LMU available when I book, it's too risky.
2. What about when I want to spend $800 (Flex fare) and upgrade? If all the SAPs of the world have taken the $500 LMUs, I'm stuck in the back. Nothing would devalue eUps more than cheap LMUs, and I say that having seen the cutbacks this year

The last UA flight I booked was SEA-SFO. It was something like $116 in Y, or $193 in J. I booked J. I think I'd be unlikely to get a LMU offer for less than that $77 difference. I paid $69 for an upgrade on LAX-SFO, which was a shorter flight, on a higher Y fare

And on UA, there are 1Ks who have never been able to get a complimentary upgrade. Heck, I had a GS friend who always used an RPU if she actually cared, because she was only around 50% for CPUs. Say what you want about AC, but I find it very unlikely an SE would be below 10% on upgrades.

To me, $70 is nothing. So if I can move forward for that amount, I'm going to, and it means no one is going to get a free* upgrade into that seat. If AC thinks that will make them more money than rewarding loyalty with upgrades, then it's their decision, but they have said they want to increase the value of the J cabin. Following United's example is not going to accomplish that.

*Because spending $12,500 for 1K status makes it a "free" upgrade, right?

yqtyyz

March 14 YVR-HKG
LMU "Offer" of $5030.
Ticketed in PE, and not using eupgrade credits this time (saving for future flights)

Yyttraveler

I'm flying this exact route in PY a week from tomorrow. $5000+ seems like a bit much to consider ....

superangrypenguin

Indeed. That's more than a BR YYZ TPE HKG flight in confirmed business class (ROUND TRIP!). What is revenue management doing? Isn't that more than a YVR HKG direct on AC? (I'm honestly not sure, but I recall a discounted biz seat YYZ HKG for around that price once)

todd-r

That's a steal, IMHO, for a 16 hour flight.

canadiancow

Is it more than confirmed business class booked less than 24 hours before departure when the cabin is likely pretty full?

Clipper801

$5,030 + original PE fare is almost the price of a full flexible J.

Is this a "joke"?