bakersdozen

I’d hope since the new program is a pretty big devaluation itself, and so new, that the devaluations are done for awhile... especially since J class and business travel likely won’t return to normal for a few years... more excess J capacity than the past few years anyways? Not going to make profit by upping the Aeroplan mile requirements are they? It was also rolled out mid pandemic so I hope they would have also taken this into account.

Remember the old days when point spend was consistent for years on end....?

cooleddie

Regularly, miles are sold at 3.00 cents per mile.

The deal was good at 1.50 cents per mile.

However, credit cards are a better deal if one hasn't applied for a credit card yet. Assuming the spend requirements are met, by spending $499 on an Amex reserve card ($599 less $100 statement credit), you can earn one time 65,000 bonus miles. That's the equivalent of 0.77 cents per mile, which is a further discount of 48% from the promotion.

jonlombardini

I bought miles from this promotion. When I go to use them there are pretty substantial taxes on all the routes I'm looking at. For example Cairo to Dubai is $94 Canadian ($75 USD) + 12.5 miles. I bought the miles for 1 cent each. That makes this fare $200 total. There are flights available for $187. You also don't have to worry about availability if you pay cash. Everyone was excited about the new Aeroplan but these taxes are a little much.

Adam Smith

I ultimately chose to pass on this promo, although I thought harder about it than any promo since the 115% from last year.

I put on my rational corporate finance guy hat, sat down, and did an assessment of the flight resources that I already have available to me, when I might effectively be using these miles, and whether I felt it made sense to commit more interest-free loans to AC.

Here's what I'm sitting on already (roughly):

• 700K Aeroplan
• 600K Amex MR (which I've historically converted almost entirely to Aeroplan)
• $1,300 in eCoupons/vouchers
• 8 credits SW Latitude FP
• 8 credits Sun FP
• 3 months Infinite Canada UFP (paused)
• At least 1x AC 15% off coupon, maybe more (I got a little behind in updating my spreadsheet of what has been used, what's extended, etc)
• 1x cheap Comfort booking to NYC for 2 pax, likely to cancel and push this out as far as they'll let me
• 6x Priority Rewards
• $1,700 in Travel Bank/credits at WS
• $300 WSD
• 3x WS companion vouchers
• 150K Avios
• A few hundred dollars of random flight credits from other airlines (e.g. I have like $100 with Alitalia)
• 500K-700K Aeroplan in my wife's and other family members' accounts that I'm typically the one to redeem (for me and my wife); it should now be easier to redeem those miles once I set up a family sharing account (haven't gotten around to it yet)

I also expect to want to do some revenue flights in 2021, and certainly in 2022, to maintain my beloved SE status, and I have no desire to redeem points if I can find good deals on cash fares (especially considering use of discount codes, eCoupons, etc). And of course revenue flying.

Not factored in explicitly, but as @cooleddie pointed out, if I really wanted to generate some miles, I could likely churn a few credit cards for the sign-up bonuses, at a lower cost than buying the miles here.

So if I had bought any points under this promo, it would likely 2023 or beyond before I was actually redeeming them. Possibly 2024.

Interest rates are currently quite low, but at least I'm earning interest (although taxed at a high rate) on my cash pile, whereas if I give my money to AC, I will earn zero, and in fact those miles will likely be worth less in 2-3 years when I redeem them. (I'm not concerned about AC's solvency or what would happen to my points if they restructured, but it's a lot easier for them to devalue the miles now that they have no fixed value on most itineraries).

Looking at the value of the points, historically I could easily clear 2 cpm on my redemptions, sometimes far in excess of that. With the prices for the things I've redeemed for generally up fairly meaningfully since the program switch, the value has eroded considerably. For instance, as SE, it used to be not too difficult to redeem for domestic/TB J at 50K per round trip. Many of the itineraries that I've looked at since then have been closer to 100K. If I can buy AC Flex for $1,000 (and play Aerolotto), or DL J for $1,500, or spend 100K Aeroplan, I'm just going to buy DL J. Yes, a couple times I year I could use a Priority Reward to bring that cost down, but you only get so many of those.

Bottom line, I just didn't see value in spending money to buy points at this price.

That's probably one of the worst uses of miles in the program, though. You're best redeeming miles when cash fares are high and for things like international business class, especially if you can find availability on partner airlines.

For example, right now, there are plenty of interesting opportunities to redeem for domestic short-notice travel in Canada (if you have a need to go somewhere), with high cash fares, but decent availability, especially in J, at reasonable points prices.

global happy traveller

Is it just me, but I’m sensing that star alliance reward redemption points will go up post Covid?

like they’re transferring credits to points, selling points with massive bonuses and some people not being able to use them for the past year+

or perhaps I’m over thinking it....

rankourabu

The logical person would deduce so. Something has to give.

One thing you will see is a massive inflation on AC metal (like Delta)
One thing you will never see - a functioning booking engine that will price out the best redemptions correctly (ie. intl stopovers)