canadiancow

You're right, that can affect it. But if X is available, I'm not seeing prices as outrageous as WestonC mentioned, even looking for flights tomorrow.

Definitely outrageous (well outside the published range), but not 37k.

But you do bring up a fair point that last minute bookings are going to be heavily penalized, though I suspect that was part of their goal. They really want to disincentivize using 7500 points for must-fly last-minute business trips.

WestonC

i understand the new program and dynamic pricing. I have booked these exact flights on the exact days in the past for yearly medical visits. I know the new program is different. It used to cost 15K in points. Now it’s over 30K. Although I just checked now and it’s surprisingly lower. 29,700 points plus $88. So yes, in my opinion that is a ridiculous increase for 2 short 45 minute flights on a dash 8.

i know your points may come up different but feel free to check for yourself. Dec 15 YMM-YEG. Dec 17 YEG-YMM

YOWgary

If I buy YMM-YEG right now on 72 hours' notice, the cash fare is $824 round-trip. If I book two weeks out, the same round-trip costs $412.

If I book YMM-YEG right now, on 72 hours' notice, it's 29,300 points round-trip. If I book two weeks out, the same round-trip costs 10,200.


Those two short 45-minute flights on a Dash 8 don't exist right now - and if they did, they'd each cost ~5,100 points too, booked two weeks to a year in advance.

You're right, the arbitrage opportunity for last-minute bookings is not what it was in the award chart released 5 years ago, although I would argue that 29,300 points for $736 saved vs, buying cash is still pretty solid value.

...but you're presenting the edge case of your last-minute booking as if that's the permanent, fixed cost for "two 45-minute flights", when in reality the cost has gone *down* 30% for all but the last-minute traveler.

If you love the new program, or hate the new program, there are facts to justify both. You don't need to exaggerate to get your point across.

WestonC

I am not exaggerating. No idea why anyone would. I started looking at these flights about 3 weeks ago and they were over 30K in points. I have been checking daily. Surprisingly they are down today.

yes this is a ridiculous amount of points for 2 x 45 minute flights. And that is because the cost for cash is also ridiculous. The sad reality is that the last minute high pricing is how airlines like to make their money but I believe that if they actually had better last minute pricing more people would be flying last minute and they could potentially make more money.

we recently had Flair Air start flying here toYMM. I can fly YMM-YVR-YEG and return for less than a one way AC YMM-YEG. I know that would be crazy but it is what it is. Hehe. And just to note residents here get a discount on Flair so those prices won’t show up online.

I get the dynamic pricing but last year I could book the exact same flights for much less points whether last minute or 3 weeks out. That’s how the average non FT traveller will see it.

YOWgary

You're absolutely exaggerating. First off, you keep talking about "two 45-minute flights", when neither AC nor Westjet are offering that right now.

When you look ahead to the part of the year when the schedule DOES return to two 45-minute flights, the award cost goes back down to 10,x00 points return, considerably less than the amount you previously considered fair.

Your argument here is that on the topic of last-minute pricing, airline revenue-management departments, scanning decades of data, can't stack up to your hunch?

Hey, if you're lucky they'll even have a working aircraft available that day!


Yes, your edge case does get more expensive when booking on two days' notice. When booking 3 weeks out, the price is 30% lower than it was under the old program.

It's a win for people who can plan ahead, and a loss for people who can't. As you appear firmly committed to the second group, the new program probably isn't good news for you.

How does Westjet's program stack up on the same route?

WestonC

Well you seem like a person who likes to argue rather than help us along but you are absolutely WRONG. I am not exaggerating. When I started researching these flights a few weeks ago I was quoted over 37K points. There is no exaggeration there and perhaps I should have taken a screen shot to prove it but you seem to know better than what the app was showing me for points.

I'm not more knowledgeable than the airlines regarding last minute pricing. I did say 'I believe' which I meant as it is my opinion. Years ago when there was last minute discounts I and my friends would hop on flights for weekend getaways. So in my opinion I do believe more people would fly if the prices were lower than they are these days at the last minute. Just my opinion.

I agree with Flair - not my choice to fly them. I only tried them once this summer for a getaway to Vancouver Island. Service wise, everything was exactly the same as AC or WS except that it was non-stop to YVR from YMM and on a lovely 737 instead of a Dash 8. But I don't think I would really choose them again due to the potential of MX and not being able to fly on my chosen dates. But they are the only airline currently flying non-stop between YMM and YVR or YYZ (I think AC has stopped their flights to YYZ from YMM but I could be wrong).

I'm not firmly committed to last minute booking. I started looking at this flight over 3 weeks ago and it was 37K +. Now it is lower. BUT - I opened the app again just now since you are so firm on accusing me of exagerating that I may have found the issue. I did not realize this was part of the app because I was just quickly checking for flights. Perhaps I if was not so quick I would have realize they are all rlgiths routed through YYC as you noted above that they are not non-stop. What I see now is that we can tap on a selection for 'Redemption Level'. This now brings up a lower amount of points required with a higher cash payment or a higher amount of points with no cash payment. I see it shows no cash with a point level of 38,546 required for redemption. Perhaps this is what I was seeing. I really don't know because I didn't know there were all these options.

So thank you for all of the information as now I know more about the app. Perhaps replying with kindness would have been better and asking if I knew about those features rather than accusing me of exaggeration,

Happy Saturday all!

YOWgary

What help were you looking for? I've never so much as hinted that the search results you found aren't real - I confirmed the 29,x00 one myself - and I've agreed that the new program didn't sound like it was covering your specific need very well.

...but you've taken a couple of bad search results as if they represent the whole year, and that's just not at all accurate.

Now that you've told us you don't need to book last-minute, I honestly think things can actually work better for you, not worse, and that as long as you book at least 14 days in advance you'll actually pay less than you used to, not more.

Here's a few examples from the near future:













Heck, even booking next week, it's still only a little higher than the old rules:





One of the big advantages of the old program was predictability: you knew exactly how many miles you'd pay to get from A to B. Lots of people hate the new variable pricing, and that's understandable, but that doesn't automatically mean the whole thing is worse across the board, even when looking at the same route.

You've mentioned in your last post that once you read a little closer, the things that looked outrageous get a lot less outrageous once you read a little deeper, and I think you''ll find this continues to be true.

I do agree with you that the "pay the taxes with points" option doesn't represent terribly good value.

canadiancow

What? Have you not been reading the AC marketing material? They now have PREDICTABLE PRICING. They did not have PREDICTABLE PRICING before.

And here I thought you had inside contacts or something

YOWgary

If you were expecting me to parrot the marketing material, I'm likely to disappoint, but you'd be the first person asking me to do so.

24left

Thanks for your reply. Perhaps I wasn't clear in my question in my post. I wasn't trying to understand AC's algorithm logic (?), or some other mystery of the AC universe, as to why the mileage for the YYZ-YVR-ZRH routing was so high.

My boredom-induced search was random YYZ-ZRH. My curiosity was not why AC would return a result like YYZ-YVR-ZRH, or even why the points needed in J could be almost 500,000. It was why would anyone want to spend those kind of points when YYZ-ZRH was showing approximately 65,000 points. It's not a paid MR. It's not a routing offered on an AC FP. It just struck me as rather odd. Thanks.

YOWgary

Entirely my mistake, I misread your question.

I believe the answer to the question you *did* ask:

...is simply that the new program is *supposed* to show any seat you can buy with cash, but still requires some fine-tuning as far as which are the 'reasonable' options to filter out, for example when one option is ~7 times the cost of another,

As you point out, YYZ-YVR-ZRH seems a bit unnecessary, just as few would be mad if a YYZ-YVR search omitted a technically-valid YYZ-YWG-YYC-YVR.

Then again, that YVR routing would permit a connection of up to 24 hours. But what kind of crazy person would fly several hours in business class, just to head right back the other way?

mileageking

Saw a better one

YOWgary

Come on, don't tease us like that, what was it?

mileageking

It's fun though solving puzzles. SE (MM but shouldn't matter) with premium CC, it's a whopping 100k less.

Ok here's clue # 1. Includes 21% in F/C cabin

Here's another clue: C2.5-C6

mileageking

Thought my last clue C2.5-C6 would do it for you . Anyway here you go, AUH-SYD in F (21%) later in year.